Why is Obama coming to PA

[Keystone Phil]

but I won't after that warning I got from Dave.

Thank God.

[Platypus]

JJ, I respect you, but I think this campaign has put the blinkers on you a bit - and a lot of other people.

Obam,a is in PA because it's a very important state, one he needs to win, and one which historically is a close one. Sure, he's leading, but it never hurts to solidify a lead, plus excite potential donors.

McCain is in Iowa because it is one of the states that he could win if there is an event to shake up this election (just as PA is a state that Obama could theoretically lose).

As for the September fundraising, I'm not sure. Probably it's either way above expectations or a bit below, so his campaign is waiting for the right point in the news cycle either way.

[tokar]

Could be he's hoping to generate some coattails.  There are a few House races in the Philly area that he could have an effect on.

Those seats are basically decided. The Dems don't have to worry about the 7th, 8th or 13th (and the 1st and 2nd are obviously two of the safest Dem seats in the nation). The only GOP seat in the area is PA 6 and the Dems are not getting it with their current candidate.

Eh I wouldn't count Roggio out just yet.  Registration of democrats outnumbers republicans in the district.  I don't have the polls in front of me, but while Roggio is way behind in the polls, he did make up significant ground between the first and second polls.

[12th Doctor]

I tried to look at this from as many angles as possible.  My opinion... there is nothing to read out of this.  He is here because he can afford to be.  The only thing that would qualify as an answer at this point is if some massive scandal that we don't know of is about to break, in which case, there is no point in speculating right now.

I want to think there is a chance we might get back into this thing, but I'm just not seeing it.  Something would have to happen in the next  to totally change the dynamics of this race.  McCain has run a terrible campaign.  He turned the wrong way around every corner.

[Lunar]

Here's another thought as to why Obama would be in PA: to give an energy boost to his local operation, which may be solid, but is probably less enthusiastic relative to his other states.  Let's not assume that McCain's is THAT much better either   ...which might be why Palin is visiting!

A candidate's visit only does so much.  Think about it: it mostly just generates local news headlines, gives some excitement to the base, and shows that the candidate cares about people like the ones in his audience. 

Where to visit is just part of a risk/benefit analysis.  What can the candidate gain by visiting times what are the odds that this will materialize.  Pennsylvania, given its size and large population of Obama's "target demographic that he wants to appeal to" will be visited many more times than a much smaller state of the same political leaning (let's say O+6-7% like New Mexico).   

McCain wants to be viewed as competitive throughout the Midwest. 

Let me advance a new theory to contrast with the prevailing theme of the forum and pundits:  A candidate does not want to appear desperate.  McCain needs to keep the TV analysts listing Wisconsin and Iowa as competitive as much as possible for his own image of competitiveness.

Given that a candidate's visit doesn't really mean anything, if the local news shows McCain being applauded by a bunch of Iowans or Wsiconsinacs, that's not necessarily a bad image for Ohio or Pennsylvania.  If it was obvious McCain was putting all of his eggs into the basket of winning Ohio, Colorado, Nevada, Florida, *AND* Virginia, he would be ridiculed by the media that doesn't really have any depth of understanding.  I was initially extremely critical about McCain's repeated events in Iowa, but held back on posting here too much, speculatin' a bit but not justifying it, and now it's just hit me why he's doing it.  He wants to appear mildly offensive in front of a bunch of rural white people, not on the defensive in states that he desperately needs to win like Ohio and Florida.  Trust me, he'll visit both plenty of times before the election, but he's still fundraising for the RNC and needs to keep his enthusiasm up!

I'm almost ready to say that visiting Iowa and Wisconsin is a good move for the McCain campaign, although measured in millimeters and not yards.  Visiting Oregon would be ridiculed.  Top-level visits is a traditional indicator of campaign investment in a state: where you see the top surrogates is where internal polling shows the most interest. but the McCain campaign is an untraditional campaign at the macro level.

Palin needs to spend two or three consecutive days in Colorado Springs ASAP though.

[Lunar]

Here's another thought as to why Obama would be in PA: to give an energy boost to his local operation, which may be solid, but is probably less enthusiastic relative to his other states.  Let's not assume that McCain's is THAT much better either   ...which might be why Palin is visiting!

A candidate's visit only does so much.  Think about it: it mostly just generates local news headlines, gives some excitement to the base, and shows that the candidate cares about people like the ones in his audience. 

Where to visit is just part of a risk/benefit analysis.  What can the candidate gain by visiting times what are the odds that this will materialize.  Pennsylvania, given its size and large population of Obama's "target demographic that he wants to appeal to" will be visited many more times than a much smaller state of the same political leaning (let's say O+6-7% like New Mexico).   

McCain wants to be viewed as competitive throughout the Midwest. 

Let me advance a new theory to contrast with the prevailing theme of the forum and pundits:  A candidate does not want to appear desperate.  McCain needs to keep the TV analysts listing Wisconsin and Iowa as competitive as much as possible for his own image of competitiveness.

Given that a candidate's visit doesn't really mean anything, if the local news shows McCain being applauded by a bunch of Iowans or Wsiconsinacs, that's not necessarily a bad image for Ohio or Pennsylvania.  If it was obvious McCain was putting all of his eggs into the basket of winning Ohio, Colorado, Nevada, Florida, *AND* Virginia, he would be ridiculed by the media that doesn't really have any depth of understanding.  I was initially extremely critical about McCain's repeated events in Iowa, but held back on posting here too much, speculatin' a bit but not justifying it, and now it's just hit me why he's doing it.  He wants to appear mildly offensive in front of a bunch of rural white people, not on the defensive in states that he desperately needs to win like Ohio and Florida.  Trust me, he'll visit both plenty of times before the election, but he's still fundraising for the RNC and needs to keep his enthusiasm up!

I'm almost ready to say that visiting Iowa and Wisconsin is a good move for the McCain campaign, although measured in millimeters and not yards.  Visiting Oregon would be ridiculed.  Top-level visits is a traditional indicator of campaign investment in a state: where you see the top surrogates is where internal polling shows the most interest. but the McCain campaign is an untraditional campaign at the macro level.

Palin needs to spend two or three consecutive days in Colorado Springs ASAP though.

Might I also add that McCain's campaign has always been of the theory that A rising tide raises all boats while Obama's campaign has been of the theory that intense focus can yield individualistic results among states.

It's not a coincidence that McCain's campaign spends more money relative to Obama on national cable buys.

[J. J.]

JJ, I respect you, but I think this campaign has put the blinkers on you a bit - and a lot of other people.

Obam,a is in PA because it's a very important state, one he needs to win, and one which historically is a close one. Sure, he's leading, but it never hurts to solidify a lead, plus excite potential donors.

McCain is in Iowa because it is one of the states that he could win if there is an event to shake up this election (just as PA is a state that Obama could theoretically lose).

As for the September fundraising, I'm not sure. Probably it's either way above expectations or a bit below, so his campaign is waiting for the right point in the news cycle either way.

It's not blinders but Obama is spending a lot of time in PA, where his poll numbers look great (they are comparable to CA), and where I have predicted he'd win, even prior to the economic problems.  Hillary is also being deployed in PA (Montco) today, though that makes some sense.  She'll do the most good in a state where she won.

It the reverse for Iowa with McCain.  His poll numbers are bad there, and I've predicted he'd lose there.  Neither move makes sense, from the outside.

As for money, the RNC raised $66 M.  Obama is running out of time to soften the blow if it's bad, because he has to report it on October 20.

[Lunar]

Something tells me that no blow softening will be needed   And my above post explains both moves outside of "internal polling shows something different"

[J. J.]

Something tells me that no blow softening will be needed   And my above post explains both moves outside of "internal polling shows something different"

Hugh suggested it.

I cannot figure out why Obama has suppressed it, when he hasn't in other months.  The whole timing argument doesn't work, because it is scheduled to be filed next week.

It does make any sense to spend the amount of time, more so than money, in PA, if the numbers are correct.

[elcorazon]

There are basically three questions:

1.  Why is Obama hitting PA?

2.  Why is McCain hitting Iowa?

both campaigns are aware that polling is fluid and that anything can happen.  They can't spend too much money in individual markets - they need to be ready in the event that some dynamic of the race changes.  If Obama screws up in the debate PA could become competitive - some change in the world economy or Iraq, etc. could alter the race and it would be foolhardy to move out of states on the cusp with large numbers of EV's too soon.

McCain in Iowa is also partly for perception. To give up on a state won by Bush in 2004 would look bad.  But keeping Iowa could also preserve him the election if he holds onto NV, OH, VA, FL.  He has to compete SOMEWHERE.

[TomC]

Something tells me that no blow softening will be needed   And my above post explains both moves outside of "internal polling shows something different"

Hugh suggested it.

I cannot figure out why Obama has suppressed it, when he hasn't in other months.  The whole timing argument doesn't work, because it is scheduled to be filed next week.

It does make any sense to spend the amount of time, more so than money, in PA, if the numbers are correct.

It absolutely does. If the race starts tightening, neither candidate will have that much control over how it affects the electoral map. In a tighter race, Obama must win Pennsylvania. I suspect at these rallies, they strengthen their GOTV database and make it more likely that young people will get out (as young voters seem more likely to attend rallies.) The campaign cannot assume Obama goes into November with an 8-10% lead nationally. They cannot take the base 270 for granted.

Has early voting started in Pa?

[TheresNoMoney]

There are basically three questions:

1.  Why is Obama hitting PA?

2.  Why is McCain hitting Iowa?

3.  Why hasn't Obama released his September fund raising?

1) To drive up turnout and shore up the state so he doesn't have to visit the last two weeks before the election.

2) Because he's trying to win the election and he doesn't have many other options.

3) Why would Obama release his September fundraising now? Releasing it now would just help the McCain campaign, by letting them know what resources Obama has left. The smart thing is to wait until the last day required.

[J. J.]

There are basically three questions:

1.  Why is Obama hitting PA?

2.  Why is McCain hitting Iowa?

both campaigns are aware that polling is fluid and that anything can happen.  They can't spend too much money in individual markets - they need to be ready in the event that some dynamic of the race changes.  If Obama screws up in the debate PA could become competitive - some change in the world economy or Iraq, etc. could alter the race and it would be foolhardy to move out of states on the cusp with large numbers of EV's too soon.

McCain in Iowa is also partly for perception. To give up on a state won by Bush in 2004 would look bad.  But keeping Iowa could also preserve him the election if he holds onto NV, OH, VA, FL.  He has to compete SOMEWHERE.

I'm not big on the "perception" argument.  The point is, I would not call Iowa even close to being competitive.  McCain personally has never been popular there and skipped the caucuses.  

The thing in PA, is as has been pointed out,  McCain has never polled ahead; at best, after the convention, there was a tie.  Only assuming a large Bradley Effect (and I'm not), would PA be close.

[Keystone Phil]

Has early voting started in Pa?

7 AM on November 4th

[TomC]

Has early voting started in Pa?

7 AM on November 4th

Ah, then he'll be back again and again.

[tokar]

I tried to look at this from as many angles as possible.  My opinion... there is nothing to read out of this.  He is here because he can afford to be.  The only thing that would qualify as an answer at this point is if some massive scandal that we don't know of is about to break, in which case, there is no point in speculating right now.

I want to think there is a chance we might get back into this thing, but I'm just not seeing it.  Something would have to happen in the next  to totally change the dynamics of this race.  McCain has run a terrible campaign.  He turned the wrong way around every corner.

boy its good to see one republican pennsylvanian not making too much out of Obama's PA tour...

[J. J.]

I tried to look at this from as many angles as possible.  My opinion... there is nothing to read out of this.  He is here because he can afford to be.  The only thing that would qualify as an answer at this point is if some massive scandal that we don't know of is about to break, in which case, there is no point in speculating right now.

I want to think there is a chance we might get back into this thing, but I'm just not seeing it.  Something would have to happen in the next  to totally change the dynamics of this race.  McCain has run a terrible campaign.  He turned the wrong way around every corner.

boy its good to see one republican pennsylvanian not making too much out of Obama's PA tour...

Somethings up, but it isn't a scandal.  OH, FL, VA, even NC, I could understand.  But something is up in PA.

[big bad fab]

If you give the impression that you're sure of one state, it's a good way to lose some points (see McCain in VA, NC, FL) and Obama cannot afford it in PA, where McCain is advertising quite big.

And campaigning in PA can be useful for OH, IN and WV as well because of geographical and/or sociological closeness.

Biden campaigns in PA more than Obama. Obama is also campaigning in VA and NC and OH a lot.

[J. J.]

If you give the impression that you're sure of one state, it's a good way to lose some points (see McCain in VA, NC, FL) and Obama cannot afford it in PA, where McCain is advertising quite big.

And campaigning in PA can be useful for OH, IN and WV as well because of geographical and/or sociological closeness.

Biden campaigns in PA more than Obama. Obama is also campaigning in VA and NC and OH a lot.

1.  Obama is outspending him in PA.

2.  PA is no even close to IN.

3.  WV and OH are about 300 miles from where Obama and Biden are.  They are not even close to the same media market (this helps in DE and NJ, but these are solidly for Obama).

[Person Man]

Why is Palin in NE-2? 

[Lunar]

Why is Palin in NE-2? 

And Indiana?

[Person Man]

Well, I understaind Indy...but Omaha? Chrsit. That's a big city, but it appears to be just a bunch of hick towns bundled up together...so because of its political culture, its more of a giant town, than a mid-sized city. It sorta felt that way when I went through this summer.

[J. J.]

Why is Palin in NE-2? 

And Indiana?

My guess is that, in both cases their internals showed weakness.  My guess is that Obama's internals showed weakness in PA.  Right now, McCain's polling in IN is lower than Obama's in PA.

[TeePee4Prez]

Why is Palin in NE-2? 

And Indiana?

My guess is that, in both cases their internals showed weakness.  My guess is that Obama's internals showed weakness in PA.  Right now, McCain's polling in IN is lower than Obama's in PA.

Does McCain have a Trojan Horse here?  Maybe....

I know Phil will have an orgasm when I say this, BUT I found an article on the 20 Wards in Philly that are white dominated and both the Dems are very concerned and the GOP still thinks they have a chance in about 10 of them.  And I thought losing the 55th, 64th, and 66th Wards would be bad.  The Ward leader in South Philly's 39th said in the article it went 71% for Kerry and he'd be happy with a break even.  WOW!  I hate to say it, but Phil's observations may very well prove accurate come November 4th.  I even heard some of the historically Democratic and blue collar River Wards are also a problem for Obama as well.  I thought maybe there'd be some problems in isolated parts of Mayfair, Fox Chase, Parkwood, and South Philly, but damn, it looks bad for us inside city limits although I heard the other parts of the city have made up for it and the suburbs might give us a wider margin before we go out into the "T".

Talk about a major demographic shift in only 4 years within one state.  Look at the polls.     

[Keystone Phil]

Why is Palin in NE-2? 

And Indiana?

My guess is that, in both cases their internals showed weakness.  My guess is that Obama's internals showed weakness in PA.  Right now, McCain's polling in IN is lower than Obama's in PA.

Does McCain have a Trojan Horse here?  Maybe....

I know Phil will have an orgasm when I say this, BUT I found an article on the 20 Wards in Philly that are white dominated and both the Dems are very concerned and the GOP still thinks they have a chance in about 10 of them.  And I thought losing the 55th, 64th, and 66th Wards would be bad.  The Ward leader in South Philly's 39th said in the article it went 71% for Kerry and he'd be happy with a break even.  WOW!  I hate to say it, but Phil's observations may very well prove accurate come November 4th.  I even heard some of the historically Democratic and blue collar River Wards are also a problem for Obama as well.  I thought maybe there'd be some problems in isolated parts of Mayfair, Fox Chase, Parkwood, and South Philly, but damn, it looks bad for us inside city limits although I heard the other parts of the city have made up for it and the suburbs might give us a wider margin before we go out into the "T".

Talk about a major demographic shift in only 4 years within one state.  Look at the polls.     

Thank you!

And the 39th is one of those areas in South Philly I was specifically talking about before. Two of my Grandparents live down there and my Grandmother was telling me how shocked she was to see such a strong presence for a Republican Presidential candidate.