Lending more credibility to Keystone Phil's anecdotes.
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  Lending more credibility to Keystone Phil's anecdotes.
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Author Topic: Lending more credibility to Keystone Phil's anecdotes.  (Read 18330 times)
Iosif
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« Reply #150 on: November 26, 2008, 04:11:43 PM »

So...unlock it for your benefit...lock it for people to opine on how wrong they think you were.

No, I lock it when people decide to mock me. I'm more than willing to have a civil conversation about this stuff. Too many people here decided to make a mockery of what I was saying.

Aw, bless.
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Stranger in a strange land
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« Reply #151 on: November 26, 2008, 06:13:30 PM »

Though the economy was the main factor in causing people to not vote based on race and social issues, I think the Palin implosion and the whole Real America vs Fake America nonsense helped turn off a lot of voters who were uncomfortable with Obama's race and otherwise would have been receptive to McCain.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #152 on: November 26, 2008, 06:16:51 PM »

Though the economy was the main factor in causing people to not vote based on race and social issues, I think the Palin implosion and the whole Real America vs Fake America nonsense helped turn off a lot of voters who were uncomfortable with Obama's race and otherwise would have been receptive to McCain.

That's certainly not the reason why people were turned off to McCain here.
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Stranger in a strange land
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« Reply #153 on: November 26, 2008, 07:05:37 PM »

Though the economy was the main factor in causing people to not vote based on race and social issues, I think the Palin implosion and the whole Real America vs Fake America nonsense helped turn off a lot of voters who were uncomfortable with Obama's race and otherwise would have been receptive to McCain.

That's certainly not the reason why people were turned off to McCain here.

I don't think it was so much the economic collapse that did in McCain's candidacy, so much as it was his response to it. Palin's meandering answers in the Gibson and Couric interviews and total ignorance in economic matters not related to the oil industry certainly didn't help.
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Sbane
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« Reply #154 on: November 26, 2008, 07:59:21 PM »


This year, he believes, issues like abortion and even the war in Iraq weren’t determining factors.
"The issue of the economy trumped all others," he said. "That was the final straw for many voters."
Medvec thinks a lot of local voters liked Joe Biden, Obama’s vice presidential running mate. Biden, a senator from Delaware, was born in the blue-collar town of Scranton, Pa.

The professor looked back to Deval Patrick’s election as Massachusetts governor in 2006 and Michael Nutter’s victory in the 2007 Philadelphia mayoral race as harbingers of Obama’s success.

Like Patrick and Nutter, Obama is an Ivy League-educated black man who did well with white voters.
Still, some of Obama’s votes came from whites who wouldn’t tell even their family members they were backing him.

"We saw a reverse Bradley Effect," Medvec said.

The Bradley Effect, discredited by many analysts, is a term used to describe how black candidates sometimes do worse on Election Day than in pre-election polls.

The theory was coined after black Democrat Tom Bradley lost the 1982 California governor’s race to white Republican George Deukmejian, despite leading in polls. Some Bradley supporters contended afterward that many white voters told pollsters they were for Bradley because they did not want to be perceived as racists. In the end, they voted for Deukmejian.

State Rep.-elect Brendan Boyle, a Democrat, took a poll in late May that showed him leading his 170th Legislative District race by 24 points, but Obama trailing McCain by 16 points.

"People would say, ‘I’m definitely supporting you, but Obama, I’m not sure,’" he said.

The candidate, who knocked on doors most of the year, said some homeowners had Boyle and McCain signs on their lawns.

The anti-Obama comments he heard started to lessen in the summer and mostly ended when the economy faltered in September. Obama ultimately received 54 percent of the vote in the 170th district.
"I think the economic crisis is absolutely why Obama took a firm lead nationally and in our district," Boyle said.

Mike Driscoll, a 65th Ward Democratic committeeman and co-owner of Finnigan’s Wake, became Obama’s Northeast coordinator in mid-July. At the time, he was skeptical whether the candidate — who was crushed in the primary by Hillary Clinton — would resonate in the Northeast.

Driscoll, who ran for an at-large City Council seat in 2003, credits Obama with giving a strong speech at the Democratic National Convention. He believes choosing Biden as his vice president was a plus.
"Little by little, you could see people starting to trust him," he said.

The local Obama field organization worked well with the party infrastructure. They developed a list of every division in the Northeast, identifying those who were undecided, leaning to Obama and definitely in his camp.

Early on Election Day, union members put voting reminders on doorknobs of supporters. Volunteers and campaign staffers followed up with phone calls and visits.

Driscoll received some good news from Bob Dellavella, Democratic leader of the 55th Ward, just five minutes after the polls closed. The 55th, based in West Mayfair, was one the McCain folks were counting on to win.

"He called me at 8:05 with results from his division," said Driscoll, adding that the division went narrowly for Obama. "I said, ‘Barack Obama is the next president of the United States.’ "

••
Reporter Tom Waring can be reached at 215-354-3034 or twaring@phillynews.com


Aren't these two articles just more proof anecdotal evidence is total bullsh**t? How does this back up your claims in any way?
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #155 on: November 26, 2008, 09:44:17 PM »

So...unlock it for your benefit...lock it for people to opine on how wrong they think you were.

No, I lock it when people decide to mock me. I'm more than willing to have a civil conversation about this stuff. Too many people here decided to make a mockery of what I was saying.

Hey, many of us also appreciated your reports from the ground as well, even though there were certainly a few claims that invited skepticism... none of us have ever been guilty of making predictions that ended up being proved wrong Wink

This latest post reinforces some of the observations you were making earlier on, and also helps explain the final results in NE Philly.

Thanks for the latest contribution, BTW!
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #156 on: November 27, 2008, 12:48:42 PM »


Aren't these two articles just more proof anecdotal evidence is total bullsh**t? How does this back up your claims in any way?

It's proof that it wasn't just me saying all of this. I wasn't crazy for saying this stuff. I was backed up by Democratic Obama supporters up until the polls closed on November 4th.


You are a good person, my friend. Thanks for being mature (that's worthy of thanks on this forum).
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #157 on: November 27, 2008, 01:14:49 PM »


Aren't these two articles just more proof anecdotal evidence is total bullsh**t? How does this back up your claims in any way?

It's proof that it wasn't just me saying all of this. I wasn't crazy for saying this stuff. I was backed up by Democratic Obama supporters up until the polls closed on November 4th.


You are a good person, my friend. Thanks for being mature (that's worthy of thanks on this forum).

Well hey, I know that anecdotal evidence is frequently looked down upon on this board, but there is a place for it, particularly when it originates from someone who is both knowledgeable about local politics and has connections to campaign networks.

BTW: I was shocked to find out that my 92 year old Granpa from York, PA almost voted for Obama. That side of the family has been Republican since the Civil War, although I believe my Grandfather did back Roosevelt a few times, and LBJ as well. (OK--- that is much more anecdotal than most of the stuff you have posted on Philly Wink )
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Sbane
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« Reply #158 on: November 27, 2008, 05:02:15 PM »


Aren't these two articles just more proof anecdotal evidence is total bullsh**t? How does this back up your claims in any way?

It's proof that it wasn't just me saying all of this. I wasn't crazy for saying this stuff. I was backed up by Democratic Obama supporters up until the polls closed on November 4th.

What you did wrong was not telling us of this anecdotal evidence, actually I think most people appreciate it, but where you went wrong was making predictions based on that kind of evidence. Especially when you wouldn't believe polls but were eager to believe any anecdotal evidence that helped your side.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #159 on: November 27, 2008, 09:29:19 PM »


Aren't these two articles just more proof anecdotal evidence is total bullsh**t? How does this back up your claims in any way?

It's proof that it wasn't just me saying all of this. I wasn't crazy for saying this stuff. I was backed up by Democratic Obama supporters up until the polls closed on November 4th.

What you did wrong was not telling us of this anecdotal evidence, actually I think most people appreciate it, but where you went wrong was making predictions based on that kind of evidence. Especially when you wouldn't believe polls but were eager to believe any anecdotal evidence that helped your side.

...

You have no idea what you're talking about. I predicted an Obama win in PA, pal. Insert foot in mouth now, please.
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Sbane
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« Reply #160 on: November 27, 2008, 09:58:02 PM »


Aren't these two articles just more proof anecdotal evidence is total bullsh**t? How does this back up your claims in any way?

It's proof that it wasn't just me saying all of this. I wasn't crazy for saying this stuff. I was backed up by Democratic Obama supporters up until the polls closed on November 4th.

What you did wrong was not telling us of this anecdotal evidence, actually I think most people appreciate it, but where you went wrong was making predictions based on that kind of evidence. Especially when you wouldn't believe polls but were eager to believe any anecdotal evidence that helped your side.

...

You have no idea what you're talking about. I predicted an Obama win in PA, pal. Insert foot in mouth now, please.

Not in September when every single poll showed Obama up. You just "clinged" to your anecdotal evidence, which is why you get so much sh**t. And it is 100% deserved. And even when you predicted an Obama win it was by what 2-3% or something, and you proceeded to denigrate people who were predicting a double digit win in PA. Refresh my memory a little, who was correct?
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #161 on: November 28, 2008, 01:10:03 AM »


Aren't these two articles just more proof anecdotal evidence is total bullsh**t? How does this back up your claims in any way?

It's proof that it wasn't just me saying all of this. I wasn't crazy for saying this stuff. I was backed up by Democratic Obama supporters up until the polls closed on November 4th.

What you did wrong was not telling us of this anecdotal evidence, actually I think most people appreciate it, but where you went wrong was making predictions based on that kind of evidence. Especially when you wouldn't believe polls but were eager to believe any anecdotal evidence that helped your side.

...

You have no idea what you're talking about. I predicted an Obama win in PA, pal. Insert foot in mouth now, please.

Not in September when every single poll showed Obama up. You just "clinged" to your anecdotal evidence, which is why you get so much sh**t. And it is 100% deserved. And even when you predicted an Obama win it was by what 2-3% or something, and you proceeded to denigrate people who were predicting a double digit win in PA. Refresh my memory a little, who was correct?

...

And all of that is pointless. For all we know, I could have been right if things stayed the same. They didn't and I changed what I said before voting began.

And, yes, I did laugh off people predicting a double digit win as did many people that actually supported Obama. It wasn't a mainstream prediction. I was wrong. I admitted it and that's more than any of you ever do.
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Sbane
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« Reply #162 on: November 28, 2008, 02:16:58 AM »
« Edited: November 28, 2008, 02:19:30 AM by sbane »


Aren't these two articles just more proof anecdotal evidence is total bullsh**t? How does this back up your claims in any way?

It's proof that it wasn't just me saying all of this. I wasn't crazy for saying this stuff. I was backed up by Democratic Obama supporters up until the polls closed on November 4th.

What you did wrong was not telling us of this anecdotal evidence, actually I think most people appreciate it, but where you went wrong was making predictions based on that kind of evidence. Especially when you wouldn't believe polls but were eager to believe any anecdotal evidence that helped your side.

...

You have no idea what you're talking about. I predicted an Obama win in PA, pal. Insert foot in mouth now, please.

Not in September when every single poll showed Obama up. You just "clinged" to your anecdotal evidence, which is why you get so much sh**t. And it is 100% deserved. And even when you predicted an Obama win it was by what 2-3% or something, and you proceeded to denigrate people who were predicting a double digit win in PA. Refresh my memory a little, who was correct?

...

And all of that is pointless. For all we know, I could have been right if things stayed the same. They didn't and I changed what I said before voting began.

And, yes, I did laugh off people predicting a double digit win as did many people that actually supported Obama. It wasn't a mainstream prediction. I was wrong. I admitted it and that's more than any of you ever do.

Dude if things stayed the same and the market didn't crash Obama wouldn't have won it by 10 points, but rather by 2-3 at least. Anybody seeing the polls then could have told you that, but no your anecdotal evidence was too important. PA was above the national mean like we all said would happen a hundred million times and you disputed that a hundred million times. And that would have happened regardless of economic conditions.
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Iosif
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« Reply #163 on: November 28, 2008, 04:25:24 AM »


Aren't these two articles just more proof anecdotal evidence is total bullsh**t? How does this back up your claims in any way?

It's proof that it wasn't just me saying all of this. I wasn't crazy for saying this stuff. I was backed up by Democratic Obama supporters up until the polls closed on November 4th.

What you did wrong was not telling us of this anecdotal evidence, actually I think most people appreciate it, but where you went wrong was making predictions based on that kind of evidence. Especially when you wouldn't believe polls but were eager to believe any anecdotal evidence that helped your side.

...

You have no idea what you're talking about. I predicted an Obama win in PA, pal. Insert foot in mouth now, please.

Not in September when every single poll showed Obama up. You just "clinged" to your anecdotal evidence, which is why you get so much sh**t. And it is 100% deserved. And even when you predicted an Obama win it was by what 2-3% or something, and you proceeded to denigrate people who were predicting a double digit win in PA. Refresh my memory a little, who was correct?

...

And all of that is pointless. For all we know, I could have been right if things stayed the same. They didn't and I changed what I said before voting began.

And, yes, I did laugh off people predicting a double digit win as did many people that actually supported Obama. It wasn't a mainstream prediction. I was wrong. I admitted it and that's more than any of you ever do.

3 cycles in a row. A streak to be proud of.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #164 on: November 28, 2008, 10:48:15 AM »

I was hoping you had left the forum Iosif. To bad you let me down.
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Iosif
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« Reply #165 on: November 28, 2008, 10:50:41 AM »

I was hoping you had left the forum Iosif. To Too bad you let me down.

Why would I leave? I enjoy reading your posts too much.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #166 on: November 28, 2008, 10:55:23 AM »

I was hoping you had left the forum Iosif. To Too bad you let me down.

Why would I leave? I enjoy reading your posts too much.

Oh wow, a grammar Nazi, you're so special.

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Iosif
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« Reply #167 on: November 28, 2008, 11:05:36 AM »

I was hoping you had left the forum Iosif. To Too bad you let me down.

Why would I leave? I enjoy reading your posts too much.

Oh wow, a grammar Nazi, you're so special.



I'd be careful about calling others Nazis if I were you. I wouldn't want my glass house to be pelted with stones.

Phil cracks me up. He didn't just "make fun" of people who thought a double digit Obama win in PA was possible. He mocked them. Terms like hack and moron were common. And that went on long after the economy crashed so I don't see how that's a valid excuse.

Now he stamps his feet and has a little hissy fit at anybody who has the nerve to remind him that he was wrong (spectacularly, again). And I'd imagine that will continue for the next 18 months.

Then the cycle will repeat itself in time for the 2010 midterms.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #168 on: November 28, 2008, 11:09:00 AM »

Oh wow, now I'm a nazi. Good for you stupid troll.
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Iosif
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« Reply #169 on: November 28, 2008, 11:11:32 AM »

Oh wow, now I'm a nazi. Good for you stupid troll.

I'd be careful about calling others stupid as well.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #170 on: November 28, 2008, 11:24:14 AM »

You're so special Iosif, I love you man.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #171 on: November 28, 2008, 11:42:39 AM »



Dude if things stayed the same and the market didn't crash Obama wouldn't have won it by 10 points, but rather by 2-3 at least. Anybody seeing the polls then could have told you that, but no your anecdotal evidence was too important. PA was above the national mean like we all said would happen a hundred million times and you disputed that a hundred million times. And that would have happened regardless of economic conditions.

Dude, you must be really special. To predict with certainty what would happen that far out is amazing! Just get me the Powerball numbers, ok?

3 cycles in a row. A streak to be proud of.

Thanks, troll. Great to see you back to harass me. It feels so special.



Phil cracks me up. He didn't just "make fun" of people who thought a double digit Obama win in PA was possible. He mocked them. Terms like hack and moron were common. And that went on long after the economy crashed so I don't see how that's a valid excuse.

Now he stamps his feet and has a little hissy fit at anybody who has the nerve to remind him that he was wrong (spectacularly, again). And I'd imagine that will continue for the next 18 months.

Then the cycle will repeat itself in time for the 2010 midterms.

It has nothing to do with simply being reminded of being wrong (which is unnecessary to begin with because I'm always the first one to admit it).

You're a child. A faceless troll who thinks he's tough on the Internets. Congrats! You're beginning your losing battle with life.
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Iosif
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« Reply #172 on: November 28, 2008, 11:52:30 AM »

Being called a child is just a tad rich, don't you think? It's not as if I'm the one who's locking threads because people are being mean to me.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #173 on: November 28, 2008, 11:58:34 AM »

Being called a child is just a tad rich, don't you think? It's not as if I'm the one who's locking threads because people are being mean to me.

I'm locking threads because you have nothing constructive to say; you're just throwing around personal insults. You're a troll with something personal against me ever since you joined the forum. Again, it's kind of sweet but stop being such a douche. Thanks, pal.
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Iosif
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« Reply #174 on: November 28, 2008, 12:15:03 PM »

Being called a child is just a tad rich, don't you think? It's not as if I'm the one who's locking threads because people are being mean to me.

I'm locking threads because you have nothing constructive to say; you're just throwing around personal insults. You're a troll with something personal against me ever since you joined the forum. Again, it's kind of sweet but stop being such a douche. Thanks, pal.

This is the first time I've addressed you in weeks.

Stop being a flaming drama queen.
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