WaPo's crazy map?
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Author Topic: WaPo's crazy map?  (Read 2800 times)
Lunar
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« on: October 12, 2008, 06:33:09 PM »
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/

Obama +13.8%: Battleground state (PA)
Obama +10.4%: Battleground state (NH)
Obama +10.0%: Battleground state (NJ)
Obama +9.5%: Battleground state (IA)
Obama +9.0%: Battleground state (OR)
Obama +8.2%: Battleground state (MN)
Obama +8.2%: Battleground state (MI)
Obama +8.8%: Battleground state (WI)
Obama +7.3%: Battleground state (NM)
McCain +6.8%: Leaning Republican (GA)
Obama +5.1%: Battleground state (VA)
Obama +4.0%: Battleground state (CO)
McCain +3.8%: Leaning Republican (IN)
Obama +3.5%: Battleground state (OH)
Obama +3.1%: Battleground state (FL)
Obama +3.0%: Battleground state (NV)
McCain +2.2%: Leaning Republican (WV)

stolen from OpenLeft.com
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J. J.
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« Reply #1 on: October 12, 2008, 06:48:12 PM »
They are looking at demographics, polling, volatility of the polling, and history.
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Lunar
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« Reply #2 on: October 12, 2008, 09:30:30 PM »
New Jersey is a battleground but not Indiana?

More likely the explanation is that Obama is up 7% now, so any state that McCain is leading in RCP averages now in, they interpret it to be safe McCain because, if McCain tied the race nationally, he'd then theoretically be up 14%+ in said state.

Also, their "battleground state" map is haphazard and most likely completely independent of their polling averages grabbed from RCP.
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King
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« Reply #3 on: October 12, 2008, 10:47:29 PM »
Quote from: Lunar on October 12, 2008, 09:30:30 PM
New Jersey is a battleground but not Indiana?

Tony Soprano will never vote for a black man.

Indiana Purple heart the Pacers and Colts starting lineup.
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tokar
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« Reply #4 on: October 13, 2008, 04:07:29 PM »
Quote from: Lunar on October 12, 2008, 09:30:30 PM
New Jersey is a battleground but not Indiana?

More likely the explanation is that Obama is up 7% now, so any state that McCain is leading in RCP averages now in, they interpret it to be safe McCain because, if McCain tied the race nationally, he'd then theoretically be up 14%+ in said state.

Also, their "battleground state" map is haphazard and most likely completely independent of their polling averages grabbed from RCP.

Personally I feel +10 in PA is still battleground but you are right with NJ - +10 in NJ is NOT battleground status.  Battleground in NJ is more like sub +5. (non-battleground in PA is more like above +15).
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #5 on: October 13, 2008, 04:12:29 PM »
It says that WV and Indiana are "battlegrounds" when I mouse over them.  New Jersey and Oregon don't.
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big bad fab
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« Reply #6 on: October 13, 2008, 04:57:33 PM »
« Edited: October 13, 2008, 05:02:51 PM by big bad fab »
They've forgotten NC and MO.

Sorry, just in your list, not on the map.

IA is not a battleground. OR is no longer one. And dropping MI as battleground is a bit stupid, even if McCain has dropped it, as MI isn't more Dem than MN, e.g.
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Lunar
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« Reply #7 on: October 13, 2008, 04:59:33 PM »
Quote from: Mr. Moderate, President on October 13, 2008, 04:12:29 PM
It says that WV and Indiana are "battlegrounds" when I mouse over them.  New Jersey and Oregon don't.

Well, congratulations Smiley

Obviously the link is dynamic and the map has changed and is no longer crazy.  It's pretty fair now.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #8 on: October 13, 2008, 05:29:30 PM »
Well it isn't exactly "Dick Morris bad" at least.
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Nym90
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« Reply #9 on: October 15, 2008, 12:02:57 AM »
Quote from: Eraserhead on October 13, 2008, 05:29:30 PM
Well it isn't exactly "Dick Morris bad" at least.

Oh, come on, Arkansas is safe Obama.

And Kentucky is lean Obama.

But Indiana is still safe McCain.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #10 on: October 15, 2008, 10:21:55 AM »
I think WaPo is using the term battleground to be any state that both candidates are contesting with significant advertising and campaign visits, and in that case it appears to be totally valid.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #11 on: October 15, 2008, 10:50:27 AM »
Traditional news media isn't very good at election projection, since they're more interested in keeping the story interesting and exciting than accurate predictions. Any real prediction map would, at this point, have Obama leaning states at 270+.
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tokar
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« Reply #12 on: October 15, 2008, 11:54:16 AM »
Its not just the leaners and the tossups which are questionable on WaPo's map:

DC: leans DEM (!!!!!)
DE: leans DEM
MD: leans DEM
VT: leans DEM (!!!!!)
AL: leans GOP (!!!!!)
ID: leans GOP (!!!!!)
WY: leans GOP (!!!!!)
UT: leans GOP (!!!!!)

This map seems to be a three rating system: lean GOP, tossup, lean DEM.  What a joke.
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J. J.
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« Reply #13 on: October 15, 2008, 05:02:21 PM »
Quote from: tokar on October 15, 2008, 11:54:16 AM
Its not just the leaners and the tossups which are questionable on WaPo's map:

DC: leans DEM (!!!!!)
DE: leans DEM
MD: leans DEM
VT: leans DEM (!!!!!)
AL: leans GOP (!!!!!)
ID: leans GOP (!!!!!)
WY: leans GOP (!!!!!)
UT: leans GOP (!!!!!)

This map seems to be a three rating system: lean GOP, tossup, lean DEM.  What a joke.

No that is just their way categorizing the states.
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Democratic Hawk
LucysBeau
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« Reply #14 on: October 15, 2008, 05:03:51 PM »
Quote from: Eraserhead on October 13, 2008, 05:29:30 PM
Well it isn't exactly "Dick Morris bad" at least.
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