PA-3: Kos/2000: Dahlkemper (D) leads 7% over English (R)

[Lunar]

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/13/17745/421

[Keystone Phil]

This better not be true. That being said, I am no English fan so I won't be distraught if he loses. I will be pissed if we manage to lose this seat though.

[Lunar]

Breakdown is:
Dahlkemper (D) 48
English (R) 41


But it's R2000 and with a 5% MoE.

Race looks to be very tight though, even if English is ahead.


Damn you find any thread about Pennsylvania fast!

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Wow. What made this race such a sleeper?

[Alcon]

Obama 46%
McCain 44%

Not sure how that compares to 2004.

[Verily]

Obama 46%
McCain 44%

Not sure how that compares to 2004.

Bush: 53.1%
Kerry: 46.6%

Makes sense with Obama's current lead in PA.

[Alcon]

Obama 46%
McCain 44%

Not sure how that compares to 2004.

Bush: 53.1%
Kerry: 46.6%

Makes sense with Obama's current lead in PA.

Do you have a link to the 2004 CD results site?  It totally escapes me where it is, and PA isn't on the Atlas.

[Keystone Phil]

Wow. What made this race such a sleeper?

It has to be the economic news. Dahlkemper is not a top candidate. That being said, English isn't amazing either.

[Sam Spade]

The poll is a little too Dem, but I'm not really surprised.  This is one race where the NRCC has been throwing a good bit of money, and that should say something.  Would be kind of funny if both English and Kanjorski went down, but I think we have to put the odds of that happening pretty reasonably high in my book.

[Verily]

Obama 46%
McCain 44%

Not sure how that compares to 2004.

Bush: 53.1%
Kerry: 46.6%

Makes sense with Obama's current lead in PA.

Do you have a link to the 2004 CD results site?  It totally escapes me where it is, and PA isn't on the Atlas.

I got those numbers from this (Democratic) site:

http://www.2008racetracker.com/?t=anon

[Lunar]

Obama 46%
McCain 44%

Not sure how that compares to 2004.

Bush: 53.1%
Kerry: 46.6%

Makes sense with Obama's current lead in PA.

Do you have a link to the 2004 CD results site?  It totally escapes me where it is, and PA isn't on the Atlas.

[MarkWarner08]

Dahlkemper has several advantages over most novice candidates. 1). Her family owns several well-known local businesses, therefore she enjoys built-in name ID. 2.) She matches the district well. She's a pro-life, pro-guns, economic populist. 3). She has no track record. English's negative ads have been pathetic (e.g., "Dahlkemper hasn't released her income tax returns) and haven't resonated with voters. Her lack of a voting record, which could be twisted for the purposes of a negative ad, impedes English's ability to go negative effectively. 4). English's support is soft. After the first two flights of DCCC ads, English's approval numbers have dipped into the negative zone.

For all these reasons, I've moved PA-03 into the Pure Tossup category.

[Mr.Phips]

This is a district that Democrats should be able to hold a long time with Dahlkemper if she wins.  She is a perfect fit for this seat, much like Altmire in PA-04. 

[Alcon]

Obama 46%
McCain 44%

Not sure how that compares to 2004.

Bush: 53.1%
Kerry: 46.6%

Makes sense with Obama's current lead in PA.

Do you have a link to the 2004 CD results site?  It totally escapes me where it is, and PA isn't on the Atlas.

Hah, thanks, but I actually meant "it" as in the CD results.  I remember there being a PDF.

[Jake]

polidata has it.

[Torie]

Alcon, Verily's link has the 2004 prez results for all the CD's - they just are not on one page however.