BRTD's county map predictions

[Josh/Devilman88]

I would but I don't have a blank county map.

[Хahar 🤔]

I would but I don't have a blank county map.

Wikipedia.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

*yawn* This is actually a rather boring state.

[Ronnie]

At this point, I expect San Diego county to go for Obama, but it will be very close.

[Sbane]

San diego could go to Obama but you are right that SLO would flip first. Also keep an eye out for San Joaquin.

[Wiz in Wis]

Wisconsin! Wisconsin! Wisconsin!

[JohnCA246]

I'm starting to think SD county will turn as well.

[Alcon]

Modoc still >70?  4 Realz?

[Хahar 🤔]

Interesting. Those eastern counties aren't exactly easy to predict.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Here you go. Those independent cities are a huge huge pain.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

North Carolina and South Carolina should be soon!

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

*yawn* This is actually a rather boring state.

I think there's a good chance Obama will win San Diego and San Joaquin counties.

[Lunar]

Mr. "I Listen to Ben Folds and Weep" - could you post your rough estimate of actual topline results?  It helps me to analyze the map if you could say what number your prediction is based on.  - besides, it gives you a loophole out!  If you miss a state's top margin you can still claim your model was right given the margin you had predicted

[Josh/Devilman88]

Can someone find me a blank county map?

[Kalimantan]

Can someone find me a blank county map?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Map_of_USA_with_county_outlines.png

OK?

[Josh/Devilman88]

Can someone find me a blank county map?

Yes thank you so much!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Map_of_USA_with_county_outlines.png

OK?

[Sbane]

*yawn* This is actually a rather boring state.

How much do you have Mccain winning Nevada county by? I think Obama stands a good chance if he gets about 59% of the vote or so, which is very much possible. Truckee seems like an Obama friendly town. I wonder what Lunar thinks about this.......Oh and Obama has a chance at Butte county as well, but only if the students at Chico state put down the beer bong for one day and go vote.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Here's a state that'll be tough to predict, but that I seem to have a strange talent for predicting right if the primary is any indication:

Tippecanoe will go Obama, though it will be extremely close.  In 2004 Bush did only 1% better statewide than he did in the county, BUT the massive swing in Indiana towards Obama has occurred among industrial workers such as are found in Lafayette.  And Purdue turnout will be vastly greater this time around.

Marion needs a deeper shade of red.

I spend a great deal of time in Porter County, though mostly in the Valparaiso area, which appears to be heavily conservative Republican.  Unless there are some liberal areas with which I'm unfamiliar, I can't see it going Obama.  This was a Goldwater county, though oddly enough it was also a Clinton '96 county.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Here's a state that'll be tough to predict, but that I seem to have a strange talent for predicting right if the primary is any indication:

Tippecanoe will go Obama, though it will be extremely close.  In 2004 Bush did only 1% better statewide than he did in the county, BUT the massive swing in Indiana towards Obama has occurred among industrial workers such as are found in Lafayette.  And Purdue turnout will be vastly greater this time around.

Marion needs a deeper shade of red.

I spend a great deal of time in Porter County, though mostly in the Valparaiso area, which appears to be heavily conservative Republican.  Unless there are some liberal areas with which I'm unfamiliar, I can't see it going Obama.  This was a Goldwater county, though oddly enough it was also a Clinton '96 county.

Tippecanoe is possible, but I'm conservative with any 59% Bush county flipping.

Porter was only 53% Bush, so yes, clearly there are some other liberal areas (well actually industrial areas, like most of Lake and LaPorte.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Tippecanoe is possible, but I'm conservative with any 59% Bush county flipping.

Indiana is a 60% Bush state that is now a dead heat in the polls.  Also Tippecanoe has been trending Democrat compared to the rest of the state.  And there's the Purdue turnout.

[AndrewTX]

Excellent job BRTD! I dont know why I never noticed this before, but I really did enjoy looking at your maps so far. Good job with CT.

[Bacon King]

More maps plz

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Here you go. Those independent cities are a huge huge pain.

Interesting.  What's his margin in Virginia?  What are his margins in Arlington and Alexandria?  I see him breaking 60% in Fairfax, and I'm reluctant to give him Loudon, Clarke, Chespeake City, Alleghany, Henrico, Buckingham, Fluvanna, Accomack, and Rappahanock.

[Brittain33]

Interesting.  What's his margin in Virginia?  What are his margins in Arlington and Alexandria?  I see him breaking 60% in Fairfax, and I'm reluctant to give him Loudon, Clarke, Chespeake City, Alleghany, Henrico, Buckingham, Fluvanna, Accomack, and Rappahanock.

Obama is polling 2-1 in northern Virginia per Survey USA... I think it's a given he wins Loudoun.

[Sbane]

Interesting.  What's his margin in Virginia?  What are his margins in Arlington and Alexandria?  I see him breaking 60% in Fairfax, and I'm reluctant to give him Loudon, Clarke, Chespeake City, Alleghany, Henrico, Buckingham, Fluvanna, Accomack, and Rappahanock.

Obama is polling 2-1 in northern Virginia per Survey USA... I think it's a given he wins Loudoun.

Yeah I see him overperforming Webb in NOVA as well as the black areas/Richmond. Mccain should do better than Allen in the western part of the state and the white/military areas of the southeast. The Mccain camp really fukced up by insulting NOVA imho.