DE PrimD: ARG: Clinton and Obama Close in Delaware

[ElectionAtlas]

New Poll: Delaware President by ARG on 2008-02-01

Summary:

Clinton:	44%
Obama:	42%
Other:	4%
Undecided:	10%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Eleden]

I wonder if ARG just makes up random numbers when they release their polls.

[Lief 🗽]

20-point Obama landslide then.

Or maybe narrow Gravel victory?

[Padfoot]

Despite ARG's horrid reputation I think this may be fairly accurate.  People tend to forget that Delaware has a sizeable black population so its not surprising this one is very close.  Plus, Obama has been gaining in national polls of late and this generally reflects that.

[Verily]

Despite ARG's horrid reputation I think this may be fairly accurate.  People tend to forget that Delaware has a sizeable black population so its not surprising this one is very close.  Plus, Obama has been gaining in national polls of late and this generally reflects that.

Actually, I think Delaware should end up pretty solidly for Obama, if for no other reason than that Obama is the first serious candidate in probably decades to visit the state (in some capacity other than traveling between Maryland and Pennsylvania or New Jersey).

[Lief 🗽]

Despite ARG's horrid reputation I think this may be fairly accurate.  People tend to forget that Delaware has a sizeable black population so its not surprising this one is very close.  Plus, Obama has been gaining in national polls of late and this generally reflects that.

Actually, I think Delaware should end up pretty solidly for Obama, if for no other reason than that Obama is the first serious candidate in probably decades to visit the state (in some capacity other than traveling between Maryland and Pennsylvania or New Jersey).

He better win Delaware in a landslide. If I was one of his advisors, I would have had him in New Jersey or Connecticut, state's where more than 5 or so delegates are up for grabs (I know that Delaware has 15 delegates, but with proportionality, there's very little chance that any of the candidates will win less than 5 or 6 delegates).

[Meeker]

How ARG conducts their polling:

First, numbers are picked randomly out of a hat


Then, through a contract with the local school district, third grade students are told to take the numbers and use them as variables in the "The Supersecret Highly Intelligent Turnout formula", hereafter known as The S.H.I.T. formula


It doesn't matter if they do the math correctly - that's what the margin of error is for

ARG then randomly calls a number determined by The S.H.I.T. formula. Racial turnout is based upon what color pen the third-graders used


ARG then subtracts 7 from one of the candidates totals, 'cause 7 is their lucky number

NOTE: ARG is currently considering switching to a new polling methodology involving bloodhounds, a bundle of bananas, and a bingo parlor off I-67

[Eraserhead]

Why? Am I missing something obvious?

No, I actually quoted the wrong post.

[Eraserhead]

How ARG conducts their polling:

First, numbers are picked randomly out of a hat


Then, through a contract with the local school district, third grade students are told to take the numbers and use them as variables in the "The Supersecret Highly Intelligent Turnout formula", hereafter known as The S.H.I.T. formula


It doesn't matter if they do the math correctly - that's what the margin of error is for

ARG then randomly calls a number determined by The S.H.I.T. formula. Racial turnout is based upon what color pen the third-graders used


ARG then subtracts 7 from one of the candidates totals, 'cause 7 is their lucky number

NOTE: ARG is currently considering switching to a new polling methodology involving bloodhounds, a bundle of bananas, and a bingo parlor off I-67

I meant to quote this one. Quite amusing.

[Lief 🗽]

Ah, yes. I already quoted it into the Goldmine.

[Meeker]

But jokes aside, I don't know what to make of this. It seems reasonable that Delaware would be close, but the ARG factor indicates it should be a blowout one way or the other.

I guess a broken clock is right twice a day...

[Eraserhead]

Obama won big. haha.

[Verily]

Is it National Laugh at ARG Day? I must have left it off my calendar.

[Hash]

I don't think this is the most egregious ARG poll of the 2008 season. I think there were a number of "better" ones, but I don't recall all their details.

[feeblepizza]

ARG just makes up numbers.