GA: Kos/R2K: McCain by 6%

[Lunar]

McCain (R) 49 (50)
Obama (D) 43 (43)

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/16/182012/46

[Person Man]

Micky C is now under 50 at least.

[Zarn]

So in reality, this poll shows a 12 point lead for McCain.

[Rowan]

Isn't it amazing how they always seem to show numbers that are more favorable to Obama?

[Lief 🗽]

Isn't it amazing how they always seem to show numbers that are more favorable to Obama?

Er... they don't, but I guess reality isn't working out that great for you McCain supporters these days.

[Rowan]

Isn't it amazing how they always seem to show numbers that are more favorable to Obama?

Er... they don't, but I guess reality isn't working out that great for you McCain supporters these days.

Oh thats right I forgot about your insurmountable 2 point lead.

[Lunar]

6% isn't insane, no need to shoot the messenger guys.  Maybe a couple % out of line, but much less than the average poll.

[Lunar]

Isn't it amazing how they always seem to show numbers that are more favorable to Obama?

Er... they don't, but I guess reality isn't working out that great for you McCain supporters these days.

Oh thats right I forgot about your insurmountable 2 point lead.

OMG one poll said something and Drudge said it, so now it's part of my snappy comebacks!

[Lief 🗽]

Isn't it amazing how they always seem to show numbers that are more favorable to Obama?

Er... they don't, but I guess reality isn't working out that great for you McCain supporters these days.

Oh thats right I forgot about your insurmountable 2 point lead.

Haha, yeah. Don't worry though Rowan, I felt the same when Kerry lost.

OMG one poll said something and Drudge said it, so now it's part of my snappy comebacks!

[Reds4]

I have to agree with both people in some respects here... it seems like research 2000 definitely skews a little to the left on their results, not only on the presidential level, but also on the senate and house races. However I do find it silly that Drudge and many republicans are acting as if McCain has some great momentum because of the likely voters model in gallup. Give it some time, Obama could be up 8 in that model tommorrow, who knows...

[Lunar]

I have to agree with both people in some respects here... it seems like research 2000 definitely skews a little to the left on their results, not only on the presidential level, but also on the senate and house races. However I do find it silly that Drudge and many republicans are acting as if McCain has some great momentum because of the likely voters model in gallup. Give it some time, Obama could be up 8 in that model tommorrow, who knows...

Agreed.

Actually, I think R2000 scores a little closer towards consensus on non-national polls.

I don't think 6% is *crazy.* but it's not absurd to say that Georgia will be in single digits and thus within the margin of error.  I mean, R2K has a Dem. bias, but I think the poll is a somewhat reasonable guess at where the race lies at this point, notably out of Obama's reach. 

I think all you have to do is look at the early voting numbers to realize that there's almost no way McCain cracks double digits in the state.  Thus 6% is about as close to the actual result as we could expect out an average pollster.

[TheresNoMoney]

As of today, blacks make up 36.5% of the early vote in GA.   Turning out in huge numbers thus far:

http://sos.georgia.gov/elections/earlyvotingstats08.htm

[Lunar]

Actually, its about 37.5% which  means he needs about 23% of the non-black vote to get to 50%.

Of course the AA percentage will steadily decrease, requiring more and more non-black voters for Obama to hold above 50%..which won't happen.

[Dan the Roman]

Actually, its about 37.5% which  means he needs about 23% of the non-black vote to get to 50%.

Of course the AA percentage will steadily decrease, requiring more and more non-black voters for Obama to hold above 50%..which won't happen.

Its down to 36.2% and falling fast, at least for the last two days. See my thread on the general board. Blacks were 32.2% of the votes cast two days ago, and 30.4% of those cast yesterday. That said, they tend to go up on weekends, but the crests are going down as time goes on.

[Rowan]

It looks like its at 35.9% right now.

[Dan the Roman]

It looks like its at 35.9% right now.

Didn't update my overall figure for now, but the point remains. I has fallen more than half a percent in the last two days alone.

[TheresNoMoney]

The problem is that Obama only receives 21% of the white vote in this poll. He needs a minimum of 25%-28% to have any prayer of winning this state, even with huge black turnout.

[Adam Griffin]

*BUMP*

AA turnout is still at an impressive 35.4% as of today.

[Adam Griffin]

According to the early voting turnout stats:

White - 60.7%
Black - 35.4%
Other - 3.9%

If you assume that blacks go 90% for Obama (31.86%) and 'other' goes 60% for Obama (2.34%), you need 26% of whites to go for Obama (15.81%) to have = 50.01%. The fact is the black vote isn't dropping by nearly as much as many thought it would. Interesting.

[Rowan]

According to the early voting turnout stats:

White - 60.7%
Black - 35.4%
Other - 3.9%

If you assume that blacks go 90% for Obama (31.86%) and 'other' goes 60% for Obama (2.34%), you need 26% of whites to go for Obama (15.81%) to have = 50.01%. The fact is the black vote isn't dropping by nearly as much as many thought it would. Interesting.

That's assuming the black vote stays at 35%, which I doubt will happen.

[Sam Spade]

Rasmussen says this:

Thirty-six percent (36%) of voters have already cast their ballots or plan to vote early this year. That figure includes 37% of Obama supporters and 35% of those for McCain. Forty-nine percent (49%) of African-American voters say they will be voting early. Voters not affiliated with either major party are far less likely to vote early than partisans.

This is only one poll, but theoretically, if accurate, this tells us that AA numbers in early voting will skew higher than they will be.

[Adam Griffin]

So far, 1,056,352 people have voted early in Georgia. Of those, 371,017 are black for a current total of 35.1%.

As of October 1, there are 1,636,423 black registered voters in the state. In 2004, there were 1,155,706 black registered voters. That's an increase of 480,717 registered black voters. In 2004, 72.2% of the black registered voters voted. It would be safe to say at least that many would vote this time around, although I could see black voter turnout be around 80%, or around 1,300,000 voters.

In 2004, 3,301,875 people voted in the general election. I think we'll see approximately 4,000,000 votes cast in Georgia in this election, which would place the black turnout at 32.5%.

According to the early voting stats and my estimation on number of votes cast in GA, roughly 25% of the people have already voted (1,056,352 out of 4,000,000). Based on that, 28% of blacks have already cast their vote (371,017/1,300,000). I don't believe that they're voting in much higher proportions than the rest of the electorate. Blacks will comprise 29.25% of Obama's vote, Latinos, Asians, and other groups will give him about 3%, which will leave the remaining 17.75% to be filled by whites in order to win. In summary, Obama will need about 26-27% of the white vote to think about winning Georgia.

[Adam Griffin]

Over 150,000 people voted today in Georgia (now at 1,206,891). The black percentage went to 35.3% from 35.1%.

[TheresNoMoney]

If you assume that blacks go 90% for Obama (31.86%) and 'other' goes 60% for Obama (2.34%), you need 26% of whites to go for Obama (15.81%) to have = 50.01%.

Blacks will go for Obama at higher than a 90% rate, I'm think it will be close to 95%. And "other" will probably go more than 60% for Obama as well.

Right now, I estimate Obama to have a 3%-6% lead over McCain in early voting as of today.

[Lunar]

Rasmussen says this:

Thirty-six percent (36%) of voters have already cast their ballots or plan to vote early this year. That figure includes 37% of Obama supporters and 35% of those for McCain. Forty-nine percent (49%) of African-American voters say they will be voting early. Voters not affiliated with either major party are far less likely to vote early than partisans.

This is only one poll, but theoretically, if accurate, this tells us that AA numbers in early voting will skew higher than they will be.

That means 30.7% of non-AA voters plan on voting early.

My math says that if 49% of AA's vote then the expected percentage of the 36% of early voters they SHOULD constitute is actually 39% so Rasmussen's number seems off and/or Obama is underperforming getting AA"s to their share of the electorate - 29%.