NC: Kos/R2K: Obama up 2%

[Lunar]

We're really cycling through reasons to discredit the poll quickly, and as they get defeated, moving on to another, huh?

[Kaine for Senate '18]

ACORN voters do appear on the rolls. There is no verification process. Thats the problem.

There's nothing inherently wrong with ACORN voters.  Most of them are valid.  Again, even a case of rampant fraud will produce maybe 2,000-3,000 new registrations.  We've seen additions to the tune of 200,000.

I'm also not sure I'd say there's "no verification" process either.  I don't know the North Carolina system.  Do you?

No but I know the Pennsylvania system, and anyone can just sign up. They only check registrations if there is a problem or challenge.

Then why are you talking about North Carolina?

[Rowan]

We're really cycling through reasons to discredit the poll quickly, and as they get defeated, moving on to another, huh?

Party ID is off in the poll too.

[Alcon]

ACORN voters do appear on the rolls. There is no verification process. Thats the problem.

There's nothing inherently wrong with ACORN voters.  Most of them are valid.  Again, even a case of rampant fraud will produce maybe 2,000-3,000 new registrations.  We've seen additions to the tune of 200,000.

I'm also not sure I'd say there's "no verification" process either.  I don't know the North Carolina system.  Do you?

No but I know the Pennsylvania system, and anyone can just sign up. They only check registrations if there is a problem or challenge.

That is probably the system most places (cross-checking SSNs takes a lot of effort), but you're side-stepping my primary points:  We don't really know the North Carolina system; and, most new registrations, ACORN and otherwise, are likely to be perfectly valid.

[Rowan]

ACORN voters do appear on the rolls. There is no verification process. Thats the problem.

There's nothing inherently wrong with ACORN voters.  Most of them are valid.  Again, even a case of rampant fraud will produce maybe 2,000-3,000 new registrations.  We've seen additions to the tune of 200,000.

I'm also not sure I'd say there's "no verification" process either.  I don't know the North Carolina system.  Do you?

No but I know the Pennsylvania system, and anyone can just sign up. They only check registrations if there is a problem or challenge.

That is probably the system most places (cross-checking SSNs takes a lot of effort), but you're side-stepping my primary points:  We don't really know the North Carolina system; and, most new registrations, ACORN and otherwise, are likely to be perfectly valid.

I would say most as in 80-85% which leaves 15-20% fraudulent.

[Alcon]

ACORN voters do appear on the rolls. There is no verification process. Thats the problem.

There's nothing inherently wrong with ACORN voters.  Most of them are valid.  Again, even a case of rampant fraud will produce maybe 2,000-3,000 new registrations.  We've seen additions to the tune of 200,000.

I'm also not sure I'd say there's "no verification" process either.  I don't know the North Carolina system.  Do you?

No but I know the Pennsylvania system, and anyone can just sign up. They only check registrations if there is a problem or challenge.

That is probably the system most places (cross-checking SSNs takes a lot of effort), but you're side-stepping my primary points:  We don't really know the North Carolina system; and, most new registrations, ACORN and otherwise, are likely to be perfectly valid.

I would say most as in 80-85% which leaves 15-20% fraudulent.

Which is...a number you made up?  Or what?

[Lunar]

ACORN doesn't even have *that* much of an operation in the South.  Like, they have more offices in Arizona than in North Carolina.

[Rowan]

ACORN voters do appear on the rolls. There is no verification process. Thats the problem.

There's nothing inherently wrong with ACORN voters.  Most of them are valid.  Again, even a case of rampant fraud will produce maybe 2,000-3,000 new registrations.  We've seen additions to the tune of 200,000.

I'm also not sure I'd say there's "no verification" process either.  I don't know the North Carolina system.  Do you?

No but I know the Pennsylvania system, and anyone can just sign up. They only check registrations if there is a problem or challenge.

That is probably the system most places (cross-checking SSNs takes a lot of effort), but you're side-stepping my primary points:  We don't really know the North Carolina system; and, most new registrations, ACORN and otherwise, are likely to be perfectly valid.

I would say most as in 80-85% which leaves 15-20% fraudulent.

Which is...a number you made up?  Or what?

Made up.

[Alcon]

Made up.

I think that number is probably closer to the number that are invalid, not fraudulent.  Most people are actually fairly reverent about registration forms.  I have never seen an obviously fake person on the roll.  Much bigger problems: registrations at workplaces, accidental inversion of address numbers (by election workers?), registrations at mail places.  People rarely waste their time fully filling out (and signing!) a joke form.  I don't think that would surprise you.  The bigger problem is people who put a mail address as their residence, which is illegal but totally unenforced-against.  Election officials have bigger fish to fry.

For what you're positing to be true, there would have to be both massive ACORN fraud to the tune of several thousands, and several multipliers of those just handing in joke/fake forms for fun.  That, or ACORN would have to essentially machine-line fake registrations.

I'm not sure if North Carolina "pings" mailboxes and marks voters inactive before Election Day if the USPS returns mail, like several states do.  If so, we'll know if there's massive fraud.  I'd probably bet my shirt that it isn't anywhere near 15%.  Returned undeliverable could go near to 15%, but that's normal--people move, screw up addresses, etc.

Either way, it will tell us how many of these new voters are staying on the rolls.

[opebo]

I think McCain will win NC in the end by a couple points.

I couldn't agree more Ronnie.  At LEAST a couple of points.  I don't take states seriously as leaning Obama unless he's consistently ahead by at least 5 points.

[Meeker]

FTR, ACORN says they registered less than 27,000 voters in North Carolina.

[Lief 🗽]

R2K has blacks going from 18.5% of the electorate to 24%? I don't buy it.

Blacks make up 22% of the state's registered voters and have made up 36% of the state's early votes thus far:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/1008/NC_Turnout_.html?showall

Dems always vote early.

False.

http://www.allacademic.com//meta/p_mla_apa_research_citation/0/4/1/4/7/pages41477/p41477-1.php

[Rowan]

Black vote is down to 26.5% after it was 36% on the first day, good news for MAC. As long as the blacks are less than 22% McCain will most likely win.

[Smash255]

We're really cycling through reasons to discredit the poll quickly, and as they get defeated, moving on to another, huh?

Party ID is off in the poll too.

Party id in poll dem +9,  Voter Reg  dem + 13.42

[Josh/Devilman88]

Obama is going to win NC.

[Rowan]

Obama is going to win NC.

Thanks for your brilliant analysis. I look forward to more in the future.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Obama is going to win NC.

Thanks for your brilliant analysis. I look forward to more in the future.

Sorry, I was playing with my Dad's new Iphone and wanted to see if the forum worked on it.