About right. Maybe a few points in McCain's direction.
Sounds about right.... I really don't think Obama will win by 17 points here. This state is simply too polarized, even with Obama winning the independent vote by a large margin. I don't see Obama underperforming versus Kerry downstate, however there are certain areas (Deschutes, Jackson, Josephine) where he will overperform. Despite the large increase in Democratic votes in suburban Washington and Clackamas counties, this sounds like 2-3 points above his potential ceiling here.
