Obama raised more than $100 million in September, according to the NYT

[J. J.]

Let's see what he actually raised first.

[J. J.]

Let's see what he actually raised first.

If this is true you're going to have more than a plate of crow. More like an entire buffet.

The range as of three days ago, was $70 M to $100 M plus.  You'll forgive me for being a bit skeptical. 

Basically to have a shot at parity, Obama/DNC needs to raise about $80 M more than the RNC spends on McCain (about 80% of the RNC total).

Roughtly, this is how the campaigns started on 9/1/08:

RNC:                     $113,000,000

80% McCain:           $90,000,000

McCain FEC:             $84,000,000

Total:                      $174,000,000

Obama/DNC:             $85,000,000

Difference:               $89,000,000

The RNC raised 9/08: $66,000,000

80% McCain:              $52,800, 000

Total, less spending:  $221,800,000

Obama/DNC:               $X

Total, less spending:  $85,000,000+ $X

If X = $100 M, Obama had $185 M to spend and  he's within $40 M of getting parity.

Now, I've underestimated McCain's total because $20-$40 M was transferred to other committees.

[J. J.]

Roughtly, this is how the campaigns started on 9/1/08:

RNC:                     $113,000,000

80% McCain:           $90,000,000

McCain FEC:             $84,000,000

Total:                      $174,000,000

Obama/DNC:             $85,000,000

Difference:               $89,000,000

The RNC raised 9/08: $66,000,000

80% McCain:              $52,800, 000

Total, less spending:  $221,800,000

Obama:                      $150,000,000

DNC:                            $42,000,000

80% Obama:                $33,600,000

Total, less spending:  $183,800,000

Total, less spending:  $85,000,000 + $183,800,000 = 268,000,000


Now, I've underestimated McCain's total because $20-$40 M was transferred to other committees.

I am surprised.





[/quote]

[J. J.]

Wow, J. J. STILL can't figure out the meaning of Vorlon's 80% comment.

And your spin on it is?

[J. J.]

Wow, J. J. STILL can't figure out the meaning of Vorlon's 80% comment.

HA!  Why does this not surprise me?  Some people have a natural aversion to understanding facts and figures.

The Vorlon actually said:

A couple points...

Firstly, RNC money is not quite as good as campaign mopmey.. there are some restrictions - if you are clever you can mostly get around those, but not completelyt.

I would say an RNC dollar is worth maybe $0.80 versus an actual hard dollar in the campaugns coffers.

Secondly, Democratic candidates at the House and Senate level are (generally speaking) in better shape than their GOP rivals, a lot of this (GOTV for example) money will also help Obama.

The value of the RNC and DNC money is about 80% of that in the campaign.  It is a rough figure, but that that is in the estimate.

Conversely, yes there are other expenditures out there on both sides, that I'm not counting.

It still doesn't really explain why it wasn't released much sooner.

[J. J.]

I looked at the last cycle and only about 10% went to the other committees, from both parties.  The bulk gets spend on the presidential races (or on "Party Building" which indirectly affects the presidential races).

[J. J.]

I looked at the last cycle and only about 10% went to the other committees, from both parties.  The bulk gets spend on the presidential races (or on "Party Building" which indirectly affects the presidential races).

You looked at one election cycle and claim a trend?  How well off were the DSSC and DCCC compared to the NRSC and NRCC in 2004?  How well off were Kerry:Bush compared to Obama:McCain?  These ratios were way different, so why would you expect  Presidential:Congressional spending to be even roughly equal between 2004 and 2008?

Yes, I looked at both parties in one election.  [/i]Both[/i] parties congressional committees have been borrowing in this cycle; I got a call from the Democratic congressional committee this morning, emphasizing how much they were borrowing.

[J. J.]

I looked at the last cycle and only about 10% went to the other committees, from both parties.  The bulk gets spend on the presidential races (or on "Party Building" which indirectly affects the presidential races).

You looked at one election cycle and claim a trend?  How well off were the DSSC and DCCC compared to the NRSC and NRCC in 2004?  How well off were Kerry:Bush compared to Obama:McCain?  These ratios were way different, so why would you expect  Presidential:Congressional spending to be even roughly equal between 2004 and 2008?

Yes, I looked at both parties in one election.  [/i]Both[/i] parties congressional committees have been borrowing in this cycle; I got a call from the Democratic congressional committee this morning, emphasizing how much they were borrowing.

Again, you're ignoring a very important piece of the puzzle.  How much did each have/raise besides what they borrowed.  Last time I saw the numbers, DSCC and DCCC were way ahead of NRSC and NRCC

The senate committee was close and most candidates have there own campaign committees.  The House committees were not.

[J. J.]

You really can't go on "raised in September."  COH is $9 million apart, not a lot.  Just to make double parity, it's just over the RNC's COH at the start of the month.

[J. J.]

You really can't go on "raised in September."  COH is $9 million apart, not a lot.  Just to make double parity, it's just over the RNC's COH at the start of the month.

You can go on "raised in September."  You can go on "raised in the 3rd quarter."  You can go on "raised this election cycle."  Any way you look at it the DSCC has solidly outperformed the NRSC in fundraising.  $9 million is over half the NRSC's CoH.  It's $9 million that the RNC will have to make up if they want their Senate candidates to stay competitive in campaign spending.  It's $9 million the RNC won't be able to spend helping out McCain when they're already in the hole compared to Obama.  It's also $9 million the RNC won't be able to use propping up the NRCC, which is even worse shape.  And that's just the cash disparity as of October 1st.  Considering the trend in fundraising so far, the DSCC is likely to outperform the NRSC again in October, which is increasing the disparity as we speak (or type).

You are making an assumption that RNC will primarily fund Senate candidates.  They don't.

[J. J.]

You really can't go on "raised in September."  COH is $9 million apart, not a lot.  Just to make double parity, it's just over the RNC's COH at the start of the month.

You can go on "raised in September."  You can go on "raised in the 3rd quarter."  You can go on "raised this election cycle."  Any way you look at it the DSCC has solidly outperformed the NRSC in fundraising.  $9 million is over half the NRSC's CoH.  It's $9 million that the RNC will have to make up if they want their Senate candidates to stay competitive in campaign spending.  It's $9 million the RNC won't be able to spend helping out McCain when they're already in the hole compared to Obama.  It's also $9 million the RNC won't be able to use propping up the NRCC, which is even worse shape.  And that's just the cash disparity as of October 1st.  Considering the trend in fundraising so far, the DSCC is likely to outperform the NRSC again in October, which is increasing the disparity as we speak (or type).

You are making an assumption that RNC will primarily fund Senate candidates.  They don't.

Uh, no, I didn't, but if the NRSC is at least $9 million behind the DSCC (which they are), and assuming that fundraising among individual Senators averages out as roughly equal on both sides (since we don't know all of the actual numbers there), the RNC will have to make up the difference or suffer the consequences of their vulnerable Senate candidates getting outspent in the final weeks.

I hate to tell you this, but candidates, especially incumbents, raise their own money.

[J. J.]

I am willing to bet that Obama will raise upwards of $250 million to $300 million once fundraising reports come out for the month of October. 

He may have, but that isn't the congressional races.

[J. J.]

BTW, how much has Obama raised overall, thus far?  $500 million?  $600 million?

I think it was over $500 M by the end of August.

[J. J.]

It's 640 million I think now.  (604 by October 1st. 36 million first two weeks of October)

Do you think it was a good idea of rhim to opt out of public financing, then?

It was a gamble, but it paid off.

[J. J.]

It's 640 million I think now.  (604 by October 1st. 36 million first two weeks of October)

Do you think it was a good idea of rhim to opt out of public financing, then?

It was a gamble, but it paid off.

About time you admitted that.

I said that from the start, that it could pay off.  It's like Palin.  We're at the point where she might pay off, but she might not.

[J. J.]

It's 640 million I think now.  (604 by October 1st. 36 million first two weeks of October)

Do you think it was a good idea of rhim to opt out of public financing, then?

It was a gamble, but it paid off.

About time you admitted that.

I said that from the start, that it could pay off.  It's like Palin.  We're at the point where she might pay off, but she might not.

I think we're well past that point.  Palin has been dragging McCain down and is going to cost him dearly a week from Tuesday.

Maybe, maybe not.  Shades of Mypalfish.

[J. J.]

It's 640 million I think now.  (604 by October 1st. 36 million first two weeks of October)

Do you think it was a good idea of rhim to opt out of public financing, then?

It was a gamble, but it paid off.

About time you admitted that.

I said that from the start, that it could pay off.  It's like Palin.  We're at the point where she might pay off, but she might not.

I think we're well past that point.  Palin has been dragging McCain down and is going to cost him dearly a week from Tuesday.

Maybe, maybe not.  Shades of Mypalfish.

I agree. JJ is looking awfully like this election's mypalfish, except not in a close race.

No, I'm saying, let it play out.  I've called Palin a gamble since the announcement.  If anything loses this election for McCain, it's the economy.

[J. J.]

So whats with mypalfish?? What did he do?

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=12005.0

ouch

Don't count you chickens until they are hatched.