Create a *close* map for 2012.
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Author Topic: Create a *close* map for 2012.  (Read 5508 times)
°Leprechaun
tmcusa2
Junior Chimp
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« on: October 22, 2008, 10:58:28 AM »
Create a map that you think is a possibilty for 2012.
Only one request. Put the electoral votes on what that map is for 2008 and for 2012 and who wins.
If you divide the country into red state blue state the Republicans have the advantage in 2012, but if you divide it into red state blue state swing state the situation changes.

For example consider the following which represents a narrow win in 2008 and 2012 for the Democrat, and involves a Dem victory in Arizona and Nevada:
274-264 in '08 and perhaps 271-267 in '12
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°Leprechaun
tmcusa2
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: October 22, 2008, 11:02:38 AM »
Remember, your map is a hypothetical for 2012 and may or may not represent a possible map in 2008 (that's up to you). Obviously Arizona is not a battleground in 08 but may be in 12.
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°Leprechaun
tmcusa2
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2 on: October 22, 2008, 11:07:36 AM »
How you define close is up to you, but be realistic -- for example 338-200 is not close.
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Nutmeg
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« Reply #3 on: October 22, 2008, 03:34:23 PM »
Quote from: MacFarlan on October 22, 2008, 10:58:28 AM
If you divide the country into red state blue state the Republicans have the advantage in 2012, but if you divide it into red state blue state swing state the situation changes.

Which states wear these cursed labels will change between 2004 and 2008.  If (when) Obama wins, "blue states" would be the default majority in 2012.
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Workers' Friend
Bob Dole
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« Reply #4 on: October 22, 2008, 03:40:59 PM »
Republicans: 276
Democrats: 262

(Using 2008 Electoral votes, by 2012, the electoral college would be a tad bit different.)
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Daniel Z
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« Reply #5 on: October 22, 2008, 09:40:37 PM »
McCain wins in 08 and decides not to run again. The Republicans nominate Palin for President and Crist for VP. The Democrats nominate Clinton for President and Warner for VP.

Here is the map (with adjustments for the census)

Clinton wins with 276 EV
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°Leprechaun
tmcusa2
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #6 on: October 26, 2008, 12:17:33 PM »
Quote from: Daniel Z on October 22, 2008, 09:40:37 PM
McCain wins in 08 and decides not to run again. The Republicans nominate Palin for President and Crist for VP. The Democrats nominate Clinton for President and Warner for VP.

Here is the map (with adjustments for the census)

Clinton wins with 276 EV

The most interesting thing about your map is your prediction for how the census will change things. For example, on your map Florida and New York both have 29 electoral votes.
It is hard to say, of course, but your projection of electoral vote changes may not be far from the actual result.
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #7 on: October 26, 2008, 12:28:27 PM »


Obama: 281
Republican: 257
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Harry Hayfield
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« Reply #8 on: October 26, 2008, 05:18:34 PM »


Obama: 269
Republican: 269

I don't think you could get much closer than that!
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DownWithTheLeft
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« Reply #9 on: October 26, 2008, 05:43:33 PM »
2012 Surprise States:

Move heavily GOP: NJ, CT, WA, ME
Move heavily Dem: NV, CO, TX, SC
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Daniel Z
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« Reply #10 on: October 26, 2008, 06:34:45 PM »
Quote from: Sen. DWTL on October 26, 2008, 05:43:33 PM
2012 Surprise States:

Move heavily GOP: NJ, CT, WA, ME
Move heavily Dem: NV, CO, TX, SC

The more GOP states depend heavily on the Republicans moveing away from the Religious Right. If they move to a more libertarian possition it is possible.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #11 on: October 26, 2008, 06:40:13 PM »
Quote from: Harry Hayfield on October 26, 2008, 05:18:34 PM


Obama: 269
Republican: 269

I don't think you could get much closer than that!

It's impossible to win a state without winning at least one congressional district, so please fix Maine.
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Хahar 🤔
Xahar
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« Reply #12 on: October 26, 2008, 09:30:52 PM »
Quote from: Ronnie on October 26, 2008, 06:40:13 PM
Quote from: Harry Hayfield on October 26, 2008, 05:18:34 PM


Obama: 269
Republican: 269

I don't think you could get much closer than that!

It's impossible to win a state without winning at least one congressional district, so please fix Maine.

It actually is possible, but not when the same candidate wins both districts.
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DownWithTheLeft
downwithdaleft
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« Reply #13 on: October 29, 2008, 03:02:22 PM »
Hillary v. Palin



Jindal v. Obama
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Citizen James
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« Reply #14 on: October 29, 2008, 05:39:32 PM »
« Edited: October 29, 2008, 05:42:38 PM by Citizen James »
2008 Map:



Obama/Biden 360
McCain/Palin 178

2012 map:



Obama/Biden 279
Romney/Sanford 259

On edit - where are you folks getting the 2012 maps generated from?  It'll be interesting to see how the 2010 census turns out, but I think what's shown is probably a good estimate.
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Daniel Z
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« Reply #15 on: October 29, 2008, 05:46:48 PM »
I doubt Palin would be able to win WA
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Хahar 🤔
Xahar
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« Reply #16 on: October 29, 2008, 10:33:45 PM »
Quote from: Citizen James on October 29, 2008, 05:39:32 PM
On edit - where are you folks getting the 2012 maps generated from?  It'll be interesting to see how the 2010 census turns out, but I think what's shown is probably a good estimate.

Muon made a guess based on census data.
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??????????
StatesRights
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« Reply #17 on: October 29, 2008, 11:42:40 PM »
I doubt Florida will pick up more EV's then California, at this point at least.
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