PA-SurveyUSA: Obama remains 12 points ahead of McCain

[J. J.]

Karl Rove says Obama is only up by 2%! I believe him!

I don't believe Rove and I don't he said +2.

[J. J.]

I don't believe Rove and I don't he said +2.

He said he saw an internal poll that showed Obama ahead by only 2%.

I though that was a supposedly leaked Obama poll?  Do you have a link?

[J. J.]

Forget this poll. The important thing is the two Democrats I talked to who said they're voting McCain. Anecdotal evidence trumps all!

Honestly guys, this is what McCain has to work with.  I don't think he's under the hidden delusion that he has a very strong shot at the state.

Lunar, what part of "I don't believe Rove," and "I think Obama carries PA," are you having a problem with? 

[J. J.]

I don't believe Rove and I don't he said +2.

He said he saw an internal poll that showed Obama ahead by only 2%.

Internal push poll maybe.

Did you know.... Barack Obama may have been a muslim, supports the killing of born babies, may not be an American citizen, opposes protecting our children from sex offenders, and pals around with terrorists?

For President - John McCain or Barack Obama.

and still a 2% race?  eek.

Supposedly one of Obama's internal polls said it was +2.  Several of the more recent same to same polls have shown a decline in Obama's numbers, from 2 to 7 points.

[J. J.]

I don't believe Rove and I don't he said +2.

He said he saw an internal poll that showed Obama ahead by only 2%.

Internal push poll maybe.

Did you know.... Barack Obama may have been a muslim, supports the killing of born babies, may not be an American citizen, opposes protecting our children from sex offenders, and pals around with terrorists?

For President - John McCain or Barack Obama.

and still a 2% race?  eek.

Supposedly one of Obama's internal polls said it was +2.  Several of the more recent same to same polls have shown a decline in Obama's numbers, from 2 to 7 points.

Dude, there was one poll that showed Obama up 7. The rest have been double digits.

There has not been a single public poll that has showed Obama only winning the state by 2 points. That is your own wishful thinking, based on conservative talk radio hearsay.

You saw one poll that showed Obama's numbers decreasing, from a Republican pollster, and now you think you see a trend.

Your act couldn't be any more transparent. Your analysis of trends are based on nothing more than your own wishful thinking.

Note the underlined word supposedly.  Also, it's now a same poll to same poll drop in three polls, Strategic Vision, Survey USA, and Quinnipiac University.  I'd like to see some really good polls of PA, but there has been some erosion on three polls.

I'm not changing my prediction of Obama winning PA, but it is closing.

[J. J.]

I don't believe Rove and I don't he said +2.

He said he saw an internal poll that showed Obama ahead by only 2%.

Internal push poll maybe.

Did you know.... Barack Obama may have been a muslim, supports the killing of born babies, may not be an American citizen, opposes protecting our children from sex offenders, and pals around with terrorists?

For President - John McCain or Barack Obama.

and still a 2% race?  eek.

Supposedly one of Obama's internal polls said it was +2.  Several of the more recent same to same polls have shown a decline in Obama's numbers, from 2 to 7 points.

Dude, there was one poll that showed Obama up 7. The rest have been double digits.

There has not been a single public poll that has showed Obama only winning the state by 2 points. That is your own wishful thinking, based on conservative talk radio hearsay.

You saw one poll that showed Obama's numbers decreasing, from a Republican pollster, and now you think you see a trend.

Your act couldn't be any more transparent. Your analysis of trends are based on nothing more than your own wishful thinking.

Note the underlined word supposedly.  Also, it's now a same poll to same poll drop in three polls, Strategic Vision, Survey USA, and Quinnipiac University.  I'd like to see some really good polls of PA, but there has been some erosion on three polls.

I'm not changing my prediction of Obama winning PA, but it is closing.

where is your prediction?

Four states close:

VA, NH:  Goes McCain

MI, PA:  Goes Obama

CO:  Tossup.

I think this was the earliest.  Now, I think it will be a lot closer than the polling (before this last set says).

[J. J.]

Michigan is not close. And that's just the most glaring part of that prediction (which might've been semi-grounded in reality at the time but is not now.)

It was.  I made that prediction about a month ago.

[J. J.]

I don't believe Rove and I don't he said +2.

He said he saw an internal poll that showed Obama ahead by only 2%.

Internal push poll maybe.

Did you know.... Barack Obama may have been a muslim, supports the killing of born babies, may not be an American citizen, opposes protecting our children from sex offenders, and pals around with terrorists?

For President - John McCain or Barack Obama.

and still a 2% race?  eek.

Supposedly one of Obama's internal polls said it was +2.  Several of the more recent same to same polls have shown a decline in Obama's numbers, from 2 to 7 points.

Dude, there was one poll that showed Obama up 7. The rest have been double digits.

There has not been a single public poll that has showed Obama only winning the state by 2 points. That is your own wishful thinking, based on conservative talk radio hearsay.

You saw one poll that showed Obama's numbers decreasing, from a Republican pollster, and now you think you see a trend.

Your act couldn't be any more transparent. Your analysis of trends are based on nothing more than your own wishful thinking.

Note the underlined word supposedly.  Also, it's now a same poll to same poll drop in three polls, Strategic Vision, Survey USA, and Quinnipiac University.  I'd like to see some really good polls of PA, but there has been some erosion on three polls.

I'm not changing my prediction of Obama winning PA, but it is closing.

where is your prediction?

Four states close:

VA, NH:  Goes McCain

MI, PA:  Goes Obama

CO:  Tossup.

I think this was the earliest.  Now, I think it will be a lot closer than the polling (before this last set says).

Id like to see a full USEA Prediction map if you dont mind.

USEA?

You can actually see me still unwilling to call PA on the above cited theread.

Here is an earlier one, with states still out:

States out:  NH, PA, MI, CO, and NM.

The full prediction is there.  I don't change it once posted.

[J. J.]

So yes, you still think Michigan is in play. Ha ha ha ha ha.

On 9/11 yes.  On 9/23 no.

[J. J.]

It seems a bit weird that Obama's only leading by 3 in the southwestern part of the state and yet he's leading by 12 overall.  I guess his huge margins in the southeast should make up for it, but it still seems a bit weird.

Its called the Pennsylvania formula.

Win 80%+ of the vote in Philadelphia.
Win 60%+ of the vote in Pittsburgh (Allegheny Co.)
Win 50%+ of the vote in the Philadelphia suburbs (Montgomery, Bucks, Chester, Delaware)
Win 50%+ of the vote in Erie
Perform well in the counties of East Pennsylvania, north of the Philadelphia market (Lehigh, Northampton, Berks)
Perform OK in the counties surrounding Pittsburgh (Westmoreland, Washington, Beaver, Fayette, Greene)

Game over.


And in Obama's case, he seems poised to perform well in the central parts of PA, around Harrisburg (as evidenced by the PA primary).

The 80% margin is low for Phila.  Doing "okay" is meaningless without an actual percentage.  Even a 50% win, just barely over 50% in the Phila 'burbs would probably lead to a loss in the state.

[J. J.]

It seems a bit weird that Obama's only leading by 3 in the southwestern part of the state and yet he's leading by 12 overall.  I guess his huge margins in the southeast should make up for it, but it still seems a bit weird.

Its called the Pennsylvania formula.

Win 80%+ of the vote in Philadelphia.
Win 60%+ of the vote in Pittsburgh (Allegheny Co.)
Win 50%+ of the vote in the Philadelphia suburbs (Montgomery, Bucks, Chester, Delaware)
Win 50%+ of the vote in Erie
Perform well in the counties of East Pennsylvania, north of the Philadelphia market (Lehigh, Northampton, Berks)
Perform OK in the counties surrounding Pittsburgh (Westmoreland, Washington, Beaver, Fayette, Greene)

Game over.


And in Obama's case, he seems poised to perform well in the central parts of PA, around Harrisburg (as evidenced by the PA primary).

The 80% margin is low for Phila.  Doing "okay" is meaningless without an actual percentage.  Even a 50% win, just barely over 50% in the Phila 'burbs would probably lead to a loss in the state.

Sure about that statement?

You are just making this too easy for me.

Assuming "Philly burbs" to mean Montgomery, Chester, Bucks and Delaware:
2000:
Gore won the Philly burbs with just 51% of the vote (Bush was at 49%).  Gore won Pennsylvania
2004:
Kerry won the Philly burbs with just 53% of the vote (Bush was at 46%).  Kerry won Pennsylvania


So, you want to rethink that statement again?

No, 53% came close to losing the state for Kerry.  Bush also gained a bit over a percentage in Phila.

Still waiting on those USelectionatlas prediction maps J.J and KeystonePhil.

It takes 5 minutes (not even) to fill out: https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2008/pred.php?action=step2

  Something between 20%-25% in Phila has been the tipping point in PA for the Republicans. 

You've seen the post, that is all you will be getting.

[J. J.]

No, 53% came close to losing the state for Kerry.  Bush also gained a bit over a percentage in Phila.

You've seen the post, that is all you will be getting.

He still won it.  Period.  If 53% in the burbs equates to  win, then Obama should have no problem winning PA because he will be besting that 53%.

Ugh...chicken...I get it.  Dont like to have your predictions on a record which can be ridiculed.  I get it...

No, my predictions are posted and were in September.  The link has been posted and I've referred to it repeatedly.  If you can't understand that, then you are just not that bright.

Now, 53% in Montco barely gave Kerry the state, with sizable wins in Delco and Phila.  Obama to carry PA, really needs to do better than 75% in Phila.  I think he will.

[J. J.]

It'd actually be a fairly impressive achievement for Obama to win PA by 9-13 percentage points while simutaneously failing to breach 80% in Philly county.

He has to win PA by 9-13 points first. 

[J. J.]

No, 53% came close to losing the state for Kerry.  Bush also gained a bit over a percentage in Phila.

You've seen the post, that is all you will be getting.

He still won it.  Period.  If 53% in the burbs equates to  win, then Obama should have no problem winning PA because he will be besting that 53%.

Ugh...chicken...I get it.  Dont like to have your predictions on a record which can be ridiculed.  I get it...

No, my predictions are posted and were in September.  The link has been posted and I've referred to it repeatedly.  If you can't understand that, then you are just not that bright.

Now, 53% in Montco barely gave Kerry the state, with sizable wins in Delco and Phila.  Obama to carry PA, really needs to do better than 75% in Phila.  I think he will.

I know what you wrote, I've seen what you wrote.  You are predicting a 269-269 tie (Kerry states + IA + NM + CO - NH for Obama, all the rest for McCain).
Its one thing to say it on these forums for the posts to just disappear into the depths of the forum.  Its another to put it in color and make a USElectionAtlas prediction map so people can comment.

Why can't you just admit you comment was inaccurate?  "...just barely over 50% in the Phila 'burbs would probably lead to a loss in the state".  Kerry was just barely over 50% and he won PA, ditto for Gore.

You didn't read it that well, because my prediction was for McCain to win CO, ultimately.

Because "barely 50%" isn't a number.  In some of the suburban counties Kerry had 57% Delco and won by 42,000 (rounding down), Montco by 46,000, Buck by 9,000, and those are just the inner suburbs.  If Bush lost them, barely, by a few hundred votes, Kerry's margin drops by 97,000 votes.

Kerry only gets 75% of the vote in Phila, he's lost another 38,000.  That is 135,000 of his total.  Kerry had a 145,000 margin in the state, so you are reaching the tipping point.

Than you have to do things like hope Kerry doesn't drop by 2 points in Westmoreland, Erie, Lancaster, Lackawanna, York and Dauphin.  None of those flip a single county.

Just over 50% of the Phila suburbs, coupled with about 75% in Phila would probably lead to a loss of PA for any Democrat.  Now, I think Obama carries PA and passes this benchmark.

[J. J.]

Still predicting McCain to win Colorado and ignoring everything in the past month is not principled, it is idiotic. Then again, consider the source...

BRTD, I don't change my predictions.  I regard it as cheating.  Anybody can look at at polls one week and change them later.  I don't ignore current treamds, but I'm not like Zogby, or apparently you, either.

[J. J.]

Still predicting McCain to win Colorado and ignoring everything in the past month is not principled, it is idiotic. Then again, consider the source...

BRTD, I don't change my predictions.  I regard it as cheating.  Anybody can look at at polls one week and change them later.  I don't ignore current treamds, but I'm not like Zogby, or apparently you, either.

I don't understand why one prediction, made from looking at polls (in part, I assume) is superior just because it was made at an arbitrary time.

That just means it's more risky and subject to event changes (more fun!), and more likely to be wrong for self-limiting of data (more useless!)

I didn't say superiour, just that once predicted, I don't change it.  I predicted NJ for Bush last time, which was wrong.  I could tell it was wrong two weeks after I made it, but the prediction was still made.

For me, it's more fun to make the prediction in September.

[J. J.]

Still predicting McCain to win Colorado and ignoring everything in the past month is not principled, it is idiotic. Then again, consider the source...

BRTD, I don't change my predictions.  I regard it as cheating.  Anybody can look at at polls one week and change them later.  I don't ignore current treamds, but I'm not like Zogby, or apparently you, either.

How is it cheating? Obviously, the situation changes in the month before the election. Taking anything that happens then into account is perfectly logical. I don't see how changing one's prediction based on polls is anything like Zogby, who rather changes his POLLS based on what he thinks will happen, which is dishonest. But changing one's prediction based on what legitimate pollsters say is simply common sense.

I could probably predict the weather with 95% accuracy for 6:00 PM today.  That isn't fun.  I like having to predict things six weeks away where I really have to jump to some unwarranted conclusions.  I'd rather be 80% right 6 weeks out than 95% right a week before.

There is a difference between truly predicting and reporting.

[J. J.]

Well your decision is rather dumb.

No it was originally an academic assignment, way back in 1980.  It had to be in well before the election.

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You'll note that on 9/11, I hadn't made any assignment of CO.  I did not say Obama will win CO.  It was still out, and that was actually one of my last states.