Gallup's track record

[ATFFL]

Gallup is maybe not a very good firm...

I don't know why Vorlon trusts Gallup more than others (as our friend John Zogby, who was better than Gallup for Iowa caucus)). Maybe than Vorlon is Frank Newport?

Gallup is not a good poll? Of course when you guys are down its not. But I must warn you that they have predicted every presidential election almost exactly with the exception of 1948.

Gallup did its last poll a week before the primary.

Zoby polled right up until the day of the primary.

That would explain the difference.  Gephardt did a murder-suicide on Dean in the last week to keep Dean from winning.  This killed both of their numbers.

Zogby is very good if there is no Republican in the race.

[ATFFL]

Why don't everyone calm down and just say Gallup 'Laided an Egg'.......It Happens.....

Lets review the last week:
9/17 - Economist - Bush +1
9/16 - Pew - Bush +1
9/15 - Harris - Kerry +1
9/14 - Dem Corp - Bush +1
9/12 - IBD/Tipp/CSM - TIE
9/9   - Dem Corps - Bush +3
9/9   - Zogby - Bush +2
9/9   - Fox/OD - Bush +2

Gallup at Bush +13 or even half that is just a joke.....

You're missing a PEW poll on there.  The one where they had Bush up huge.

That is my problem with PEW.  They got a result they though was an outlier and sat on it.  They immediately did a repoll and got a result they liked more and released it.

The fact is we don't have a lot of good polls out there right now.  Most of them are Internet polls or polls by highly partisan firms.  On the other end of the spectrum we have Gallup who is reflecting the energized Republican base too much.

The truth lies somewhere in between.