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Author Topic: Israel 2009  (Read 43267 times)
Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #125 on: December 31, 2008, 06:29:44 PM »

Will this mean a further bleeding of Labour's Arab vote?

Yeah, I'd guess so.
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dmet41
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« Reply #126 on: December 31, 2008, 06:31:46 PM »

I wonder what impact the recent bombings will have on the election?  I would guess it will provide a boost to Likud.

I haven't seen any polls since the fighting started, but it should help Labor.

if they get the rocket attacks to stop, if cant than it would help Likud bigtime, regardless though i'd say Likud's chances of winning are still very good.
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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #127 on: December 31, 2008, 07:38:01 PM »

Will this mean a further bleeding of Labour's Arab vote?

Yeah, I'd guess so.

Excellent, excellent. We'll be seeing a lot more grand coalitions.
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Yamor
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« Reply #128 on: December 31, 2008, 07:46:08 PM »

I think Labor will gain more from having Barak as defence minister now then they'll lose from the Arab vote. Unless, of course, the war turns into a disaster for Israel, like Lebanon a couple of years ago.
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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #129 on: December 31, 2008, 08:13:08 PM »

But those gains will come from the Jewish parties, while the Arab parties will also gain.
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Yamor
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« Reply #130 on: January 01, 2009, 07:18:05 PM »

Poll taken yesterday, and published today by haaretz gives (brackets is from a poll just over a week ago, i.e. before the fighting started):
Likud 32 (+2)
Kadima 26 (+1)
Labor 16 (+5)

So, quite interesting, in that Likud are also gaining, and even slightly more then Kadima. The gains seem to come from Shas and National Home (NRP), who each have lost 3 seats.
Another interesting point is that although Likud's lead has gone up by 1, the total seats won by right-wing+religious parties has gone down from mid-sixties to precisely 60, with a corresponding rise for the left and centre parties. This, however, is not a sign that Israelis are against the fighting. It's just that Labor have got a major boost, since Barak is Defence Minister. In fact, a majority are in support of the fighting continuing, although it's only 52%.
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ag
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« Reply #131 on: January 01, 2009, 08:42:23 PM »
« Edited: January 01, 2009, 10:14:00 PM by ag »

Poll taken yesterday, and published today by haaretz gives (brackets is from a poll just over a week ago, i.e. before the fighting started):
Likud 32 (+2)
Kadima 26 (+1)
Labor 16 (+5)

Well, as you know, I actually like minor parties here. So, we have the following (compared w/ a week earlier):

Likud 32 (+2)
Kadima 27 (+1)
Labor 16 (+5)
Yisrael Beiteinu 11 (nil)
Shas 9 (-4)
Meretz 7 (-1)
UTJ 5 (nil)
Hadash 4 (+1)
UAL-Taal 4 (+1)
Jewish Home 3 (-3)
Balad 2 (nil)
Gil 0 (-2)

Actually, what this looks like is a collapse of the Jewish religious parties. Between the 3 of them, they are down to 17 predicted seats - 7 less then a week ago. That only 2 of these would go to Likud is notable. Everyting is stable on the left, other then the Labor gains: the one-seat decrease for Meretz is compensated by a seat increase for Hadash. The main secular Zionist parties are all on a roll - patriotic bump. Interesting stability for YB.

An interesting observation: if this were to really happen, a Likud/Kadima coalition could form a government with any other party (even Balad Smiley))))) ). Given the impossibility of a purely right-wing coalition, this is what I would expect in this case (of course, chances are, as a third party they'd take one of the religious factions: whichever one is cheaper, I guess).

Seems like, all the laborites needed is a little victorious war Sad
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Verily
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« Reply #132 on: January 08, 2009, 10:53:44 PM »
« Edited: January 08, 2009, 10:58:49 PM by Verily »

More signs of a war-bump for Labor and Kadima, although this poll suggests it is Kadima, not Labor, who is benefiting the most. From Maariv, changes are based on their 10 December poll.

Kadima: 28 (+7)
Likud: 28 (-7)
Labor: 16 (+1)
Yisrael Beiteinu: 12 (+1)
Shas: 11 (-1)
Meretz: 6 (nc)
UTJ: 5 (-2)
NU-NRP: 4 (nc) (Unseparated here but will be running separately; one or both may fail to make the threshold)
"Arab parties": 10 (nc) (Not separated in the poll despite the recent decision. Huh)
Others, incl. Greens and Gil: 0

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/32573/governing_kadima_ties_likud_in_israel/
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dmet41
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« Reply #133 on: January 09, 2009, 06:47:30 PM »

That poll was from a few days ago, if you look at the link (http://www.uzit.co.il/poll2009.html) and see the link (the first is kadima, then labor, then likud) you will see that likud and labor are peeling off seats from kadima, little by little.
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Yamor
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« Reply #134 on: January 12, 2009, 12:00:43 PM »

Today the central election committee voted to disqualify two arab parties from the elections. They won between them 7 seats last elections. This has happened before, in 2003, and the high court overturned the decision. They're expected to overturn it this time too.

Concerning delaying the elections because of the fighting in Gaza, it seems more and more likely they will be delayed. There is just some disagreement as to what sort of majority in knesset will be needed to vote in such a delay - any sort of majority, or a larger majority of 80-40 (I think the question is because a delay will not extend the length of time between elections to more then 4 years, in which case they'd definitely need a 'special' majority, it's just extending the time allowed when a government cannot be formed before elections).
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ag
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« Reply #135 on: January 19, 2009, 07:42:55 PM »

Late-war and post-war polls have the right back in the lead.

Dialog - Channel 10 (Jan 18)

Likud 29
Kadima 26
Labor 14
Yisrael Beieteinu 14
Shas 10
"Arabs" 8
Meretz 6
UTJ 5
National Union 4
Jewish Home 2
greens 2

Shvakim (Jan 14)
Likud 28
Kadima 21
Labor 15
Yisrael Beiteinu 15
Shas 10
"Arabs" 10
UTJ 7
Meretz 5
Jewish Home 3
National Union 3
greens 3

Channel 2 (Jan 13)
Likud 33
Kadima 28
Labor 13
Yisrael Beiteinu 13
"Arabs" 10
Shas 8
Meretz 5
UTJ 5
National Union 4
greens 2
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danny
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« Reply #136 on: January 21, 2009, 11:49:21 AM »
« Edited: January 21, 2009, 05:16:08 PM by danny »

As expected, the supreme court reinstated Balad (8-1 decision) and Ra'am-Ta'al (9-0).
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Jens
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« Reply #137 on: January 21, 2009, 01:10:08 PM »

As expected, the supreme court reinstated Balad (9-0 decision) and Ra'am-Ta'al (8-1).
Good thing - the ban was really bad timing (And I oppose bans anyway)
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ag
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« Reply #138 on: January 21, 2009, 02:28:31 PM »

As expected, the supreme court reinstated Balad (9-0 decision) and Ra'am-Ta'al (8-1).

Thanks god!
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #139 on: January 24, 2009, 09:23:03 PM »

As expected, the supreme court reinstated Balad (8-1 decision) and Ra'am-Ta'al (9-0).

Probably a good thing.
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Yamor
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« Reply #140 on: January 28, 2009, 10:24:31 PM »

We're now entering quite an interesting phase in the elections, with parties starting to make agreements among each other to share surplus votes (since Israel uses D'hondt, it's better to be larger, i.e. more chance of an extra seat). So far I've heard only of an agreement between 'The Jewish Home' party and the NU (who last elections ran on a combined list) to be combined for the surplus votes calculations.
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Yamor
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« Reply #141 on: February 03, 2009, 05:57:24 AM »

Elections are in a week today.
The latest Midgal poll says Yisroel Beiteinu gaining at the expense of Likud, but Likud (28) still clear of Kadima (23) by 5 seats. They put Yisroel Beiteinu (18) above Labor (17), and Shas (10) well behind the two of them. Meretz (4) also look like not having done well the last few weeks.
Some analysts claim that Lieberman (Yisroel Beiteinu) will advise Peres to ask Livni (Kadima) to form the government, even if Likud outperform Kadima like the polls suggest. They say this even though Likud are more natural allies of Yisroel Beiteinu because Bibi has said he'd form a government with Shas who refuse to be in a coalition with Yisroel Beiteinu because of their secular views (to legalise civil marriage etc.).
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Verily
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« Reply #142 on: February 03, 2009, 12:12:54 PM »

Wait... weren't Shas and Yisrael Beiteinu in coalition together with Kadima and Labor for a while before Lieberman left the coalition?
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Hash
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« Reply #143 on: February 03, 2009, 07:34:30 PM »

Why is Yisrael Beiteinu surging these days?
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Yamor
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« Reply #144 on: February 03, 2009, 09:00:26 PM »

Shas have been in coalitions with Yisroel Beiteinu before. After all, they have similar views on many subjects outside religion. However, since they are both right-wing, and there is a sector who could vote for either of them, therefore they are battling each other quite strongly, with especially Shas coming out with virulantly anti-Yisroel Beiteinu slogans. Basically, Shas, in an effort to gain support from this sector have made it a major campaign policy to not let Lieberman's plans for civil marriage, and other secular policies, go through.

I don't know if there is any single, simple reason as to why Yisroel Beiteinu are doing so well. Especially since Lieberman is now under investigation by the police. I'd guess the main source for their gain is from the far-right support of Likud.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #145 on: February 04, 2009, 06:43:53 AM »

Maybe it's a symphathy vote now that Lieberman is under police investigation.
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Hash
Hashemite
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« Reply #146 on: February 04, 2009, 07:44:19 AM »

Another thing. Why are the Arabs polling at only 8 seats (4 Ta'al, 4 Hadesh, 0 Balad) according to the newest poll (and some other recent older polls)?
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Verily
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« Reply #147 on: February 04, 2009, 11:41:22 AM »

Another thing. Why are the Arabs polling at only 8 seats (4 Ta'al, 4 Hadesh, 0 Balad) according to the newest poll (and some other recent older polls)?

Because the pollsters suck. They will end up with 9 to 11 seats between them and will all be in the Knesset.
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Yamor
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« Reply #148 on: February 04, 2009, 12:18:59 PM »

Last time Balad got 3 seats, but if they'd got 10,000 less votes they wouldn't have got any, because they wouldn't have crossed the threshold of 2%. That is probably how this poll ended with them getting nothing, since a slightly lower turnout among their supporters and if a small amount move to the other Arab parties, they could end up with nothing.
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #149 on: February 04, 2009, 03:59:27 PM »

What is Lieberman under investigation for?
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