Israel 2009

[Jens]

Anywhere I can follow the results?

[Sam Spade]

How accurate are the exit polls usually in Israel? 

Better or worse than the US and any particular lean?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not sure whether they're any better or worse than American ones, but they've always seemed to be pretty bad...

Anywhere I can follow the results?

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1063105.html

[Sam Spade]

Not sure whether they're any better or worse than American ones, but they've always seemed to be pretty bad...

lol - thanks for the straight answer... 

[Jens]

Not sure whether they're any better or worse than American ones, but they've always seemed to be pretty bad...

Anywhere I can follow the results?

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1063105.html

Thanks

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Coalition related news: Bibi and Lieberman are reported to have started talking to each other already, while Barak has openly stated that Labour might go into opposition.

[Verily]

Coalition related news: Bibi and Lieberman are reported to have started talking to each other already, while Barak has openly stated that Labour might go into opposition.

Unless Shas gives in to working with YB, they won't have the seats unless the exit polls are badly wrong. Not even the most optimistic combination of exit polls for the right gives them enough seats without Shas. And Kadima and Livni can easily demand that Livni be PM even if Kadima leads an otherwise right-wing coalition.

No, this will be a grand coalition. Maybe Kadima-Likud-YB, but probably Kadima-Likud-Labor.

[Verily]

Jump in reporting to 10%; the numbers are starting to look representative of the likely final result.

[M]

kadima-likud-yb-meretz could b a poss, if lieberman focuses on civil marriage, easier conversions, and land exchange as part of final negotiations, rather than his absurd loyalty oath.

[Dan the Roman]

I am suspecting a Kadima-Likud-YB with Livni as Prime Minister, but Likud and YB controlling the key ministries. This gives YB secular partners, Likud power over negotiations and keeps Netanyahu out of the Prime Minister's office. The message tonight seems to be that voters wanted Likud but not Bibi. I think labour needs to go into opposition rather than prop up centrist or center-right governments, and Meretz, while potentially acceptable as outside support, is unlikely to be in an actual government.

The other problem with a leftist government is the Arabs. Such a combination would rest on their toleration, and I doubt any government dependent on Arab support would be acceptable to YB. Maybe the United Arab List, but not the others.

[Verily]

kadima-likud-yb-meretz could b a poss, if lieberman focuses on civil marriage, easier conversions, and land exchange as part of final negotiations, rather than his absurd loyalty oath.

I don't think Meretz would ever agree to be in a government with YB or Likud. But they wouldn't be necessary for a majority anyway.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

kadima-likud-yb-meretz could b a poss, if lieberman focuses on civil marriage, easier conversions, and land exchange as part of final negotiations, rather than his absurd loyalty oath.

I don't think Meretz would ever agree to be in a government with YB or Likud. But they wouldn't be necessary for a majority anyway.

...and if they did, it'd be the end of them anyway.

[Verily]

Jump to 27% reporting. Still pretty much matching the exit polls, maybe slightly better for Shas than they predicted and slightly worse for Labor. But it's not clear what's in and what isn't.

[Sam Spade]

From Haaretz.  With 52% in

Kadima 29
Likud 28
YB 16
Labor 12
Shas 11
Meretz 4
UTJ 4
National Union 4
Hadash 4
UAL 3
Jewish Home 3

I have no clue what's left to count.  There are military votes, I seem to recall (from what little I remember about Israeli elections).
Balad 2
Jewish Home 3

[Sam Spade]

With 80% in, not much changed...

Kadima 29 (23%)
Likud 28 (22%)
YB 16 (12%)
Labor 12 (10%)
Shas 11 (8%)
Meretz 4 (3%)
UTJ 4 (4%)
National Union 4 (3%)
Hadash 4 (3%)
UAL 3 (3%)
Jewish Home 3 (3%)
Balad 2 (2%)

[Hash]

Seems like 11 Arab seats, instead of 10 in the last Knesset. Hadash and Ta'al-Ra'am at 4, and Balad at 3. Interesting.

Meretz' result must be quite deceiving for them. 3 seats only.

[Yamor]

With over 90% counted, it's 29-27-15-13-11. Then you have NU, Hadash, UAL, UTJ with 4, and Bayit Yehudi, Balad, Meretz with 3.
Remember, soldiers votes only get counted on Thursday.

[Hash]

Results in Sderot right now:

Likud 33%
Yisrael Beitenu 23%
Shas 13%
Kadima 12%
National Union 7%
Labor 5%
Jewish Home 2%
UTJ 2%
Meretz 1%

[Yamor]

With basically all votes counted (excluding soldiers and diplomats), Kadima have lost one seat, which went to the UAL. That'd mean only one seat difference at the top, and 12 seats for the Arab parties.

[Hash]

Now 12 Arabs! Hadash 4, UAL 5, Balad 3.

[Hash]

With basically all votes counted (excluding soldiers and diplomats), Kadima have lost one seat, which went to the UAL. That'd mean only one seat difference at the top, and 12 seats for the Arab parties.

Could the seat numbers still change with the final ballots?

Which way does the IDF vote?

[Nhoj]

Now 12 Arabs! Hadash 4, UAL 5, Balad 3.

wasn't arab turnout suppose to be lower?

[Hash]

Now 12 Arabs! Hadash 4, UAL 5, Balad 3.

wasn't arab turnout suppose to be lower?

Yes, supposedly.

[Nhoj]

Now 12 Arabs! Hadash 4, UAL 5, Balad 3.

wasn't arab turnout suppose to be lower?

Yes, supposedly.

now that i think about it dont a fair amount of arabs vote for labor who seem to be doing pretty poor.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Now 12 Arabs! Hadash 4, UAL 5, Balad 3.

wasn't arab turnout suppose to be lower?

Yes, supposedly.

now that i think about it dont a fair amount of arabs vote for labor who seem to be doing pretty poor.

they have, at least traditionally, though Barak's role as defense minister during the attack on Gaza, as well as his generally disastrous term as prime minister in the late 90s probably turned them off to Labor.