Israel 2009

[Verily]

Now 12 Arabs! Hadash 4, UAL 5, Balad 3.

wasn't arab turnout suppose to be lower?

Yes, supposedly.

now that i think about it dont a fair amount of arabs vote for labor who seem to be doing pretty poor.

they have, at least traditionally, though Barak's role as defense minister during the attack on Gaza, as well as his generally disastrous term as prime minister in the late 90s probably turned them off to Labor.

As I recall, Labor's percentage of the Arab vote was close to negligible in 2006, something like 2-3%. Higher than any other Jewish party, of course, but not enough to make any difference in terms of seats either way.

But remember that there will be basically no Arab-party votes from the army. And the Arab parties are now down to 11 seats again.

[Ronnie]

Holy crap, this is really coming down to the wire.  I don't know who will win...

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Any chance Gil or Meimad gain enough soldier votes to put them over the 2% quota?  The Harretz site lists them at 1%, but whether that's 1.9% or 0.6% I can't tell.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Kadima 28, Likud 27, Yisrael Beitenu 15, Labour 13, Shas 11, UTJ 5, NU 4, Hadash 4, UAL 4, Meretz 3, Balad 3

That's with a 100% counted, apparently (though presumably not including soldiers votes).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Mmmm... some traditional post-election regret from Haaretz methinks...

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[The Man From G.O.P.]

Am I right in thinking that the combined right totals 64% of the vote?

[minionofmidas]

Am I right in thinking that the combined right totals 64% of the vote?

Who are you counting? The most common definition seems to have the right at 65 of 120 seats, and thus certainly not at 64% of the vote. But that definition a) includes the religious parties b) excludes Kadima. (Whether "left" is the correct description of the Arab parties might be yet another matter for debate.)

[Ronnie]

Kadima 28, Likud 27, Yisrael Beitenu 15, Labour 13, Shas 11, UTJ 5, NU 4, Hadash 4, UAL 4, Meretz 3, Balad 3

That's with a 100% counted, apparently (though presumably not including soldiers votes).

It's really irrelevant.  It matters who is able to build a coalition government, of which Netanyahu has the advantage.

[minionofmidas]

You assume Arabs will vote for "Arab" parties. Many Bedouins vote for Likud. Arabs account for around 35% of Labor's vote as well.

(and other, varying claims on the issue by other posters)

The Haaretz thingy Al linked to allows at least some deductions...

80% of Bedouins vote United Arab List. Most of the remainder votes Balad.

Hadash is mostly the party of urban Arabs - it took a majority of the vote in Nazareth (the largest almost exclusively Arab city) - while UAL is stronger in rural parts. Rural (non-Bedouin) parts are also where mainstream parties get their Arab votes from: Parties other than Hadash, Balad and UAL combined took 8% of the vote in Nazareth, 12% in "non-jewish communities" of 20-50k inhabitants, but 19% in those of 10-20k and 28% in those under 10k - including 9% for Labor and 6% for Kadima. Of course, there are some Arabs living outside of "non-jewish communities", but the number seems to be negligible (Arabs in Jerusalem do not appear to vote - I'm not sure whether (m)any of them have Israeli citizenship?)
 
A statistical note on theoretical Arab electoral strength... Arabs are 20% of Israel's population (using the official definition of that, which excludes "temporary foreign workers" - almost 200k of them - includes East Jerusalem, and includes the 270k Israelis in the West Bank. And of course excludes Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank. But not in East Jerusalem.)
However, the Arab population is quite young. Using the best figures I could find, Arabs should make up about 14.4% of the voter pool. From what I've seen claimed (but cannot confirm - too varied sources), Arab turnout was about 50% and turnout across the country 65%. Taking those figures at face value gives about 13 seats determined by Arab votes this year... but that may have to be corrected if East Jerusalem Arabs are not citizens. Assuming (for simplicity's sake) that all Arabs in East Jerusalem are non-citizens, and that their age structure is the same as the citizen Arabs', we get 17.3% Arab citizens, 12.3% Arab eligible voters, and 11-12 seats determined by Arab votes.
Take your pick.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Kadima 28, Likud 27, Yisrael Beitenu 15, Labour 13, Shas 11, UTJ 5, NU 4, Hadash 4, UAL 4, Meretz 3, Balad 3

That's with a 100% counted, apparently (though presumably not including soldiers votes).

It's really irrelevant.  It matters who is able to build a coalition government, of which Netanyahu has the advantage.

I don't think that seat numbers are irrelevant as far as building coalitions goes...

[M]

I've spoken to people in the Jerusalem municipality about this. You have to understand that West Jerusalem never had an Arab minority like Haifa or Acre, so the Jerusalem Arabs are all Palestinians from East Jerusalem. This was an annexed area, and my best understanding is that East Jerusalemites could register for citizenship if they chose to (standing offer), but very, very few do. However, they are allowed to vote in Palestinian elections. Theoretically, at least, an East Jerusalemite Arab could vote in both elections.

You assume Arabs will vote for "Arab" parties. Many Bedouins vote for Likud. Arabs account for around 35% of Labor's vote as well.

(and other, varying claims on the issue by other posters)

The Haaretz thingy Al linked to allows at least some deductions...

80% of Bedouins vote United Arab List. Most of the remainder votes Balad.

Hadash is mostly the party of urban Arabs - it took a majority of the vote in Nazareth (the largest almost exclusively Arab city) - while UAL is stronger in rural parts. Rural (non-Bedouin) parts are also where mainstream parties get their Arab votes from: Parties other than Hadash, Balad and UAL combined took 8% of the vote in Nazareth, 12% in "non-jewish communities" of 20-50k inhabitants, but 19% in those of 10-20k and 28% in those under 10k - including 9% for Labor and 6% for Kadima. Of course, there are some Arabs living outside of "non-jewish communities", but the number seems to be negligible (Arabs in Jerusalem do not appear to vote - I'm not sure whether (m)any of them have Israeli citizenship?)
 
A statistical note on theoretical Arab electoral strength... Arabs are 20% of Israel's population (using the official definition of that, which excludes "temporary foreign workers" - almost 200k of them - includes East Jerusalem, and includes the 270k Israelis in the West Bank. And of course excludes Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank. But not in East Jerusalem.)
However, the Arab population is quite young. Using the best figures I could find, Arabs should make up about 14.4% of the voter pool. From what I've seen claimed (but cannot confirm - too varied sources), Arab turnout was about 50% and turnout across the country 65%. Taking those figures at face value gives about 13 seats determined by Arab votes this year... but that may have to be corrected if East Jerusalem Arabs are not citizens. Assuming (for simplicity's sake) that all Arabs in East Jerusalem are non-citizens, and that their age structure is the same as the citizen Arabs', we get 17.3% Arab citizens, 12.3% Arab eligible voters, and 11-12 seats determined by Arab votes.
Take your pick.

[Verily]

Kadima 28, Likud 27, Yisrael Beitenu 15, Labour 13, Shas 11, UTJ 5, NU 4, Hadash 4, UAL 4, Meretz 3, Balad 3

That's with a 100% counted, apparently (though presumably not including soldiers votes).

It's really irrelevant.  It matters who is able to build a coalition government, of which Netanyahu has the advantage.

As I've pointed out multiple times, Netanyahu does not have an advantage.

"The right" has a majority of seats, but internal fractures within "the right" make it much less likely that they will be able to work together than that a grand coalition will be formed. Shas would lose all legitimacy as the primary party of the ultra-Orthodox if they agreed to a coalition with the militantly secular Yisrael Beitenu, a position only reinforced by Shas's declaration before the election that they would never work with Yisrael Beitenu. Similar holds for the smaller ultra-Orthodox parties, but they did not (as far as I am aware) make unconditional statements of refusal to work with Yisrael Beitenu.

So, what about grand coalitions? There are a number of possible combinations: Kadima-Likud-YB, Kadima-Likud-Labor, even Kadima-Likud-Shas. But any such coalition requires Kadima, which as the largest party in the coalition could easily demand the Prime Ministership. Since Likud can't form a government otherwise, they will be forced to accept.

Initially, I thought Kadima-Likud-Labor was more likely; now I'm leaning towards Kadima-Likud-YB. Netanyahu gets to be Foreign Minister, which is really what he wants anyway.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Results in some larger cities:

Tel Aviv: Kadima 34%, Likud 19%, Labour 15%, Meretz 8%, Yisrael Beitenu 6%, Shas 6%

Jerusalem: Likud 24%, UTJ 19%, Shas 15%, Kadima 11%, NU 7%, Yisrael Beitenu 6%, Labour 6%

Haifa: Kadima 28%, Likud 20%, Yisrael Beitenu 16%, Labour 13%, Hadash 4%

Be’er Sheva: Likud 28%, Yisrael Beitenu 25%, Kadima 20%, Labour 7%

Ashkelon: Likud 31%, Yisrael Beitenu 27%, Kadima 16%, Shas 11%, Labour 6%

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Mmmm... some traditional post-election regret from Haaretz methinks...

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And now they're calling for Kadima and Labour to merge. I love it when newspapers try to have their cake and eat it.

[agcatter]

Netanyahu wants to be Prime Minister.

[Hash]

Anyone have the 2006 results in the kibbutzim?

[M]

Netanyahu wants to be Prime Minister.

This has to be stated?

[minionofmidas]

I've spoken to people in the Jerusalem municipality about this. You have to understand that West Jerusalem never had an Arab minority like Haifa or Acre, so the Jerusalem Arabs are all Palestinians from East Jerusalem. This was an annexed area, and my best understanding is that East Jerusalemites could register for citizenship if they chose to (standing offer), but very, very few do. However, they are allowed to vote in Palestinian elections. Theoretically, at least, an East Jerusalemite Arab could vote in both elections.

Yes, I figured something along those lines. (Except for the Palestinian elections bit. IIRC They were sort of allowed last time around - at polling stations outside the annexed area - , but not before then. And Hamas won despite not being allowed to campaign in East Jerusalem...
That's what I read somewhere today, anyhow.)

[Hash]

There's a very good interactive map on ynet with the 2003 and 2006 results for every municipality and for neighborhoods within the cities:

http://www.ynet.co.il/articles/0,7340,L-3666718,00.html

of course it's only in Hebrew.

They posted the 2009 results, but the key has changed. Could somebody with knowledge of Hebrew post us another guide to the colours/names?

[Ronnie]

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1233304756005&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

Check this article out

[Verily]

Interesting. I suppose Livni at Defense with Netanyahu as PM is not all that surprising. But who will be the third member of the coalition if Lieberman is being unreasonable? Labor? Or the religious parties?

(Really, I don't mind the religious parties so much. Aside from Meretz, they tend to be the least militant of the Jewish-community parties.)

[The Man From G.O.P.]

Could everyone be pacified with BN as Prime Minister, Livni at defense, and EB at whatever the "home sec" is in Israel? or would that piss off the right, even Likud too much?

[M]

Netanyahu (Likud) - PM
Livni (Kadima) - Foreign
Mofaz (Kadima) - Defense
Lieberman (YB) - Finance

Shas and other parties may also join or support the coalition from outside.

The priorities of this government would be the Gaza situation; both Netanyahu and Lieberman have said they want to finish the job, i.e. regime change by force.

[danny]

Shas acting like their typical self, before the election yhey said voting for Liberman strengthens the devil and the day after the elections they say their willing to sit with them in the same coalition.

[danny]

There's a very good interactive map on ynet with the 2003 and 2006 results for every municipality and for neighborhoods within the cities:

http://www.ynet.co.il/articles/0,7340,L-3666718,00.html

of course it's only in Hebrew.

They posted the 2009 results, but the key has changed. Could somebody with knowledge of Hebrew post us another guide to the colours/names?

The only change amongst parties that will have representation is that instead of the united NRP-NU,
the NU is third from the top on the left and JH is just under that.