Israel 2009

[ag]

Today's Haaretz cites a poll from Dahaf Research (no clue what they are). In brackets change from the current Knesset

Kadima 29 (nil)
Likud 26 (+14)
Labor 11 (-8)

They also cite TNS Teleseker for almost the same results:

Kadima 31 (+2)
Likud 29 (+17)
Labor 11 (-8)

I shall try to find the details

Update: Jpost confirms these. Dahaf has a sample of 500 voters, TNS of 900 voters.  But neither paper has the full breakdown

[ag]

Ok, here is the full Dahaf breakdown:

Kadima 29 (nil)
Likud 26 (+14)
Labor 11 (-8)
Shas 11 (-1)
Yisrael Beiteinu 9 (-2)
NU-NRP 7 (-2)
UTJ 7 (+1)
Meretz 6 (+1)
Greens 2 (+2)
Gil 2 (-5)
"Arab Parties" 10 (nil)

If this were to happen, religious parties would be key, as neither of the two likely secular parings would work. Likud + YB = 35. Kadima+Labor=40. It could also be some sort of a grand coalition, as Kadma+Likud would have 55 seats, only 6 short of a majority, and could form the gov't w/ any one of YB (likely unacceptable to Kadima), Shas, NU-NRP,UTJ or Meretz (won't work w/ Likud, though).

[ag]

And here is TNS

Kadima 31 (+2)
Likud 29 (+17)
Labor 11 (-8)
Yisrael Beiteinu 11 (nil)
Shas 8 (-4)
NU-NRP 7 (-2)
Meretz 5 (nil)
UTJ 4 (-2)
Green 3 (+3)
Gil 0 (-7)
"Arab Parties" 11 (+1)

Broadly consistent, with the other one, except that it shows the two large parties slightly stronger and the religious parties somewhat weaker. If this one holds, Shas were the true idiots.

BTW, if this one happens, Kadima+Labor+Meretz+Green+Arabs would have a majority. Of course, they'd never form such a coalition, but that would mean that no reasonable coalition at all would be possible without Kadima.

[ag]

Weird that TNS is seeing 11 Arab seats.

Not impossible at all. The Arab parties went from 8 to 10 seats in the 2006 elections (both new seats going to the United Arab List).

Yes, I know. But all other pollsters seem to have 10 seats for the Arabs. Do they not count those seats and allocate a set number in each poll?

I am sure they truly poll. It's simply that the "Arab party" electorate is rather well-defined. Still, the exact numbers and the distribution across parties might affect how many "Arab party seats" there will be, and a single seat is well within the margin of error.

BTW, "Arab party" designation is not fully right. One of the "Arab parties" is a coalition including the Communists. Normally (though, I am not sure if that was the case last time) one of the "Arab party" MKs is a Jew (for a while it was Tamar Gozanski, later Dov Chenin). A better designation would be "Arab and bi-communal parties": but it wouldn't be PC in Israel

[ag]

Go Arab Parties!

Even Hadash?

Idk who they are, but if they are Arab Parties in Israel then yes

Well, they are usually lumped up w/ Arab parties, but they are, actually, Commies ( strictly speaking, a coalition including the Commies proper). They have a non-negligible Jewish vote (that is, non-negligible as a proportion of their vote) and sometimes elect Jewish MKs. The Israeli political spectrum can be divided into Zionist parties (everyone from Meretz to Yisrael Beiteinu), non-Zionist religious parties (say, Shas), and non-Zionist parties, which are usually called Arab parties. But Hadash is, actually, non-Zionist bi-communal.

[ag]

Excellent. Hadash should make the next Knesset.

Why would there be any doubt that they make it?
They always make it.

But the last time they've got 5 MKs elected was, I believe, in 1977. They have 3 now, 2 in the previous Knesset. Anybody knows, what's their list this time?

[ag]

Why do people talk so much about Hadash? They're a very marginal communist party. It just happens that although it's not officially an arab party, most of their support is arab, as well as their policies.

It's just that they are likable

[ag]

Why do people talk so much about Hadash? They're a very marginal communist party. It just happens that although it's not officially an arab party, most of their support is arab, as well as their policies.

Exactly. They're communist, and they support Arabs.

One man's support of the Arabs is another man's support of the Jews. Everything is relative here

I prefer to say that they differ with the majority of Israelis in their interpretation of the Jewish history

[ag]

Would be great results if Likud could get rid of Bibi and replace him, with a real right winger

Likud is bad enough as it is with Netanyahu as its leader and would only get worse if the likes of Moshe Feiglin ever somehow managed to win the Likud leadership. Which is quite unlikely in my personal opinion.

I don't mean Feiglin, there are plenty of things we disagree on. I meant someone more like Benny Begin

You mean someone just a little to the right of such well-known left-wingers as Jean-Marie Le Pen and David Duke

[ag]

Primaries seem to help Kadima

A poll from Maagar Mohot

Likud 29
Kadima 25
Shas 12
Yisrael Beteinu 12
Labor 10
Meretz 8
Yahadut Hatorah 6
Jewish Home (NU+NRP) 4
Green 4
Gil 1
"Arab Parties" 9

A fully rightwing gov't would need all the religious parties: Likud+Shas+YB+YH+JH=63. A centrist "grand coalition" of Likud+Kadima+Labor would be possible as well (64 seats).  Likud+Kadima+Shas is another possibility (66 seats). Would Kadima be willing to go w/ Yisrael Beteinu? Hard to see the former laborites in it agreeing, but anything is possible, of course.

[ag]

Would Kadima be willing to go w/ Yisrael Beteinu? Hard to see the former laborites in it agreeing, but anything is possible, of course.

Considering Kadima had no problem until now with being in a coalition with YB I don't see why that would be a problem.

There is a difference between a coalition w/ Labor and YB, in which Kadima is the senior partner, and a coalition w/ YB and Likud, headed by Likud. Likud-Kadima-YB government would be far to the right of the natural leanings of a lot of the ex-labor people. At the very least, Kadima should be expected to try to make it a Likud-Kadima-YB-Labor.  Though, of course, this is Israel - anything unnatural is possible there.

[ag]

If labor and YB, and Shinui and NRP can be in the same coalition, then anyone can.

Hadash and YB?

[ag]

Meretz, YB, NRP, Shas (without Likud, Kadima or Labor)?

BTW, this, actually, may become interesting. The Arab proportion of the potential electorate, if I am not mistaken, is growing, while most non-Arab parties (other then Hadash )) ) are not getting any more attractive to them. What happens, if Arab parties + Hadash start getting consistently, say, 15 to 20 seats? It would make it pretty hard to form a minimally cohesive government just w/ Zionist parties. Furthermore, if the leftist parties plus Hadash could ever (numerically) form a government, it would be very tempting to do this (especially, if Hadash does break out a bit from the Arab ghetto - Chenin's success in TA seems to hint at such a possibility, however, small).

[ag]

Likud and Labor together is, actually, not at all unnatural - they are both in the center of Israeli political space (now joined there by Kadima). The problem is, what happens if Likud+Labor+Kadima are still nowhere near to forming the gov't and it has to be formed including multiple parties from the far ends of the political spectrum. Of course, it can be done: but the larger the proportion of the "Arabs" in the Knesset, the more it will become the norm, rather than an exception. At some point, somebody would have to get tired that sort of an arrangement

Chenin is Chenin - hard to hide Hadash will never become a mainstream party in Israeli society, but if (a huge if, of course) it starts to, consistently, gain 6-7 seats, 2-3 of them going to Jewish MKs, it will become a force that would be hard to ignore in some coalition negotiations: it may be easier for the secular parties to satisfy, then some of the religious demands. Chenin's ability to deal w/ a Likudnik only confirms this. Of course, 35% of TA residents would never vote for Hadash even in their nightmares, even if it is no longer a ghetto party - what if 10% do? No matter what, Chenin has shown he is an electoral asset. I just hope they use it.

[ag]

According to the polls Likud+Kadima+Labor is already over 60. And even if it falls short you could always add Shas without much trouble. So forming a coalitiion without Arabs shouldn't be much of a problem (and it wouldn't be even with a 15-20 arab party mks).

I wasn't talking about this election, obviously: I am not an idiot you think I am In this election the probability of Arabs + Hadash getting 15 seats is equal to exactly zero.  But demographic trends, you know It would be interesting to imagine Israeli politics in which a government routinely has to get 61 out of 100 "Jewish" seats available

[ag]

You assume Arabs will vote for "Arab" parties.

Of course, I don't assume this Never-ever, honest Of course I am aware that Arabs have always been an important electorate for Labor. That's absolutely unrelated to the point I've been making.

That does not change the fact that a) the share of Arabs in the voting population is bound to grow and b) that the "mainstream" Israeli parties are becoming increasingly unattractive for the average Arab citizen. As for your last claim (about "identification"), that's the gist of the problem. It's not the Arabs' decision to identify or not to identify with the mainstream: they are not given this choice by the society at large. There is no desire on the part of the Jewish mainstream to have them "assimilated". I fully trust that if it were up to the Arab street, assimilation (at least, political) wouldn't be a problem - what I don't believe is that the Jews would let them in. That's why Hadash is important: it's the only non-Arab party that treats them as equals.

The problem is, Arabs are Israel's Jews And, of course, some Jews have always been attracted to the Communists ))

[ag]

Good news for ag, a new directive by the election committee means that polls will now have to include the arab parties separately.

My Jewish soul is smiling

[ag]

Poll taken yesterday, and published today by haaretz gives (brackets is from a poll just over a week ago, i.e. before the fighting started):
Likud 32 (+2)
Kadima 26 (+1)
Labor 16 (+5)

Well, as you know, I actually like minor parties here. So, we have the following (compared w/ a week earlier):

Likud 32 (+2)
Kadima 27 (+1)
Labor 16 (+5)
Yisrael Beiteinu 11 (nil)
Shas 9 (-4)
Meretz 7 (-1)
UTJ 5 (nil)
Hadash 4 (+1)
UAL-Taal 4 (+1)
Jewish Home 3 (-3)
Balad 2 (nil)
Gil 0 (-2)

Actually, what this looks like is a collapse of the Jewish religious parties. Between the 3 of them, they are down to 17 predicted seats - 7 less then a week ago. That only 2 of these would go to Likud is notable. Everyting is stable on the left, other then the Labor gains: the one-seat decrease for Meretz is compensated by a seat increase for Hadash. The main secular Zionist parties are all on a roll - patriotic bump. Interesting stability for YB.

An interesting observation: if this were to really happen, a Likud/Kadima coalition could form a government with any other party (even Balad ))))) ). Given the impossibility of a purely right-wing coalition, this is what I would expect in this case (of course, chances are, as a third party they'd take one of the religious factions: whichever one is cheaper, I guess).

Seems like, all the laborites needed is a little victorious war

[ag]

Late-war and post-war polls have the right back in the lead.

Dialog - Channel 10 (Jan 18)

Likud 29
Kadima 26
Labor 14
Yisrael Beieteinu 14
Shas 10
"Arabs" 8
Meretz 6
UTJ 5
National Union 4
Jewish Home 2
greens 2

Shvakim (Jan 14)
Likud 28
Kadima 21
Labor 15
Yisrael Beiteinu 15
Shas 10
"Arabs" 10
UTJ 7
Meretz 5
Jewish Home 3
National Union 3
greens 3

Channel 2 (Jan 13)
Likud 33
Kadima 28
Labor 13
Yisrael Beiteinu 13
"Arabs" 10
Shas 8
Meretz 5
UTJ 5
National Union 4
greens 2

[ag]

As expected, the supreme court reinstated Balad (9-0 decision) and Ra'am-Ta'al (8-1).

Thanks god!

[ag]

Another thing. Why are the Arabs polling at only 8 seats (4 Ta'al, 4 Hadesh, 0 Balad) according to the newest poll (and some other recent older polls)?

This may be why:

http://haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1061723.html

If this indeed catches on, it would be very bad. Bad short-term (an even screwier Knesset this time), bad long-term (if Arabs decide their citizenship isn't worth much, it would be very dangerous).

[ag]

Kadima seems to think they have more leverage than they do.   They should join the government.  T

What for? To repeat the marvelous recent success of the German SPD?

What's the purpose of becoming a part of an unstable, controversy-torn grand coalition, dominated by parties all to the right of it, where its influence is limited, but where it has to sign off on numerous decisions that would be unpopular among its voters (all the while w/ Labor sniping on the side: "what did you guys expect when you voted for the Likud-light?"). Mind it, the next couple of years aren't going to be very economically pleasant - being a part of the government is going to be a mixed blessing for many parties worldwide. But, at least, they'd have real power - what is it, other than tsores, that Kadima would get in exchange for being responsible for the management of the disaster?

Kadima's best strategy is to go into the opposition and wait for the religious parties in the gov't to fight each other, Lieberman to be indicted, etc., etc. - never forgetting to show off the righteous anger about the mismanagement of public affairs. If they do that, the might replace Labor permanently as the major center-left party. If they don't, they might be obliterated by Labor at the next elections.

[ag]

So, erm, Labour has been asked to join the government, and Barak said yes.  But large parts of the party are saying no.

The Labor Central Committee voted in favor of joining. 7 out of 13 Labor MKsare against - and, at least 5 have said they'd vote against the gov't whatever the decision of the Central Committee. We might be watching the Labor implosion.

[ag]

Another funny thing is: given all the ministries now committed to various coalition agreements, there are only 5 or 6, mostly minor (except for Finance), portfolios left for Likud. It seems, if this circus does go through, half the Likud cabinet members will be without portfolio (or else, departments will be partitioned).  Likudniks are seething, laborites are dreadfully split: it seems, Netaniyahu is managing a national reconciliation of sorts: a lot of people hate what he is doing. And that is even before they form the gov't.

Anyway, 5 cabinet positions for the 6 Knesset votes Barak can deliver... This is quite generous

[ag]

Well, actually, they aren't the only ones out

So far, the gov't is assured of the following votes: Likud 27, YB 15, Shas 11, Labor (Barak) 6 - the other 7 Laborites are against the coalition, though some might be persuaded (though 5 of these have said they'd vote against it no matter what). Together that makes it 59 reliable votes - they need 61.  There are 3 more right-wing parties available, but United Torah Judaism (5 seats) apparently refuses to seat in the gov't w/ the secular YB (they don't so much object to YB on principle, but YB managed to get points into the program unacceptable to UTJ). This, by the way, migt explain why Netaniyahu was going so far to get the Laborites: without UTJ, the right wing has 60 seats - one short of what they need. That leaves the National Union (4 seats) and the Jewish Home (3 seat), anyone of which would get the coalition to the majority (if I were Netaniyahu I wouldn't risk going for the vote without the ultras, since the behavior of 7 out of 13 Laborites is, at least, unpredictable).

Quite a coalition. Barak and Ben-Elieser are getting themselves into a very interesting company.