Israel 2009

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It seems like Tzipi Livni has failed to form a government, with the Shas refusing to work with Kadima. Seems like elections in February.

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1031253.html

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Random poll I found (change from 2006)

Likud 29 (+17)
Kadima 25 (-4)
Labor 14 (-5)
Yisrael Beiteinu 12 (+1)
Shas 9 (-3)
NU-NRP 8 (-1)
UTJ 5 (-1)
Yachad 4 (-1)
Social Justice 2 (new)
Greenies 2 (+2)
Gil 0 (-7)
"Arab Parties" 10 (0)

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Weird that TNS is seeing 11 Arab seats.

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Weird that TNS is seeing 11 Arab seats.

Not impossible at all. The Arab parties went from 8 to 10 seats in the 2006 elections (both new seats going to the United Arab List).

Yes, I know. But all other pollsters seem to have 10 seats for the Arabs. Do they not count those seats and allocate a set number in each poll?

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Go Arab Parties!

Even Hadash?

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Go Arab Parties!

Even Hadash?

Idk who they are, but if they are Arab Parties in Israel then yes

Commies.

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The Israeli electoral system (but also greater and greater difficulties to have stable majorities in Germany, Austria, Denmark, Norway, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Slovakia, Czech rep., Baltic states, etc.) makes the British first-past-the-vote system appear to be the best one in the world.

It was 1% before, then 1.5%. Now it's 2.5%.

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lol Labor.

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Get out of this thread, Stark. And Ben, don't feed the troll.

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As we get closer, it seems increasingly likely that Likud will win, although I'm sure it'll be closer then the polls suggest. I'm more interested in how well Shas and Yisroel Beiteinu will do - both potentially important coalition parties for Likud.
Anyone know anything about surplus-vote-agreements, or is it too early for that?

I think Shas will lose some ground, while Yisrael Beiteinu will gain some ground. Then, I'm not a genius on Israeli elections. I hope the Greens do well.

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Does the old people's party still exist?

They split up IIRC but neither will have seats.

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Ah yes, of course, but you can't really compare a primary with a few thousand votes and and a countrywide one with millions.

Apart from the fact that it should be easier to poll a primary with a few thousand votes

you'd think that, but historically the opposite has been true. Pollsters claim this is because primaries have a high percentage of people who lie to pollsters.

Oh, I know (see also the endless hilarity that is constituency polling in countries with fptp). Which is why it's funny

Jonquiere-Alma polls were hilarious this year . Segma did some hilarious polls this year. They should get an award.

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Why is Yisrael Beiteinu surging these days?

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Another thing. Why are the Arabs polling at only 8 seats (4 Ta'al, 4 Hadesh, 0 Balad) according to the newest poll (and some other recent older polls)?

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What sort of time can we expect results?

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Seems like 11 Arab seats, instead of 10 in the last Knesset. Hadash and Ta'al-Ra'am at 4, and Balad at 3. Interesting.

Meretz' result must be quite deceiving for them. 3 seats only.

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Results in Sderot right now:

Likud 33%
Yisrael Beitenu 23%
Shas 13%
Kadima 12%
National Union 7%
Labor 5%
Jewish Home 2%
UTJ 2%
Meretz 1%

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Now 12 Arabs! Hadash 4, UAL 5, Balad 3.

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With basically all votes counted (excluding soldiers and diplomats), Kadima have lost one seat, which went to the UAL. That'd mean only one seat difference at the top, and 12 seats for the Arab parties.

Could the seat numbers still change with the final ballots?

Which way does the IDF vote?

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Now 12 Arabs! Hadash 4, UAL 5, Balad 3.

wasn't arab turnout suppose to be lower?

Yes, supposedly.

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Anyone have the 2006 results in the kibbutzim?

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There's a very good interactive map on ynet with the 2003 and 2006 results for every municipality and for neighborhoods within the cities:

http://www.ynet.co.il/articles/0,7340,L-3666718,00.html

of course it's only in Hebrew.

They posted the 2009 results, but the key has changed. Could somebody with knowledge of Hebrew post us another guide to the colours/names?

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What is happening in Israel is terrifying. How could a far-rightist get more votes than historical Labour Party ? We can see that Israelis don't believe in peace anymore : it's for the same reason that Palestinians voted for Hamas. If we want to avoid the worsening of the situation, we need a strong and neutral intervention. And Obama is the one who could do this.

I wouldn't exactly call Avoda a dovish party either.

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France had a combined Ministry of Work and Labour (the two things are quite different in France), so Israel could split Work and Labour. Or create a Ministry of Free Time, like in the first Mauroy government.

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They need a Minister of Free Time.