Israel 2009

[Dan the Roman]

According to the polls Likud+Kadima+Labor is already over 60. And even if it falls short you could always add Shas without much trouble. So forming a coalitiion without Arabs shouldn't be much of a problem (and it wouldn't be even with a 15-20 arab party mks).

I wasn't talking about this election, obviously: I am not an idiot you think I am In this election the probability of Arabs + Hadash getting 15 seats is equal to exactly zero.  But demographic trends, you know It would be interesting to imagine Israeli politics in which a government routinely has to get 61 out of 100 "Jewish" seats available

According to the polls Likud+Kadima+Labor is already over 60. And even if it falls short you could always add Shas without much trouble. So forming a coalitiion without Arabs shouldn't be much of a problem (and it wouldn't be even with a 15-20 arab party mks).

I wasn't talking about this election, obviously: I am not an idiot you think I am In this election the probability of Arabs + Hadash getting 15 seats is equal to exactly zero.  But demographic trends, you know It would be interesting to imagine Israeli politics in which a government routinely has to get 61 out of 100 "Jewish" seats available

According to the polls Likud+Kadima+Labor is already over 60. And even if it falls short you could always add Shas without much trouble. So forming a coalitiion without Arabs shouldn't be much of a problem (and it wouldn't be even with a 15-20 arab party mks).

I wasn't talking about this election, obviously: I am not an idiot you think I am In this election the probability of Arabs + Hadash getting 15 seats is equal to exactly zero.  But demographic trends, you know It would be interesting to imagine Israeli politics in which a government routinely has to get 61 out of 100 "Jewish" seats available

You assume Arabs will vote for "Arab" parties. Many Bedouins vote for Likud. Arabs account for around 35% of Labor's vote as well. Arabs are not cohesive. Druze and Bedouins hate Palestinians intensely, so intensely that army units including them can not be used on the West Bank. What you are really asking is whether nationalist Arabs will reach that level, and that is a question that involves questions other than pure demographics, and assumes that identification will remain the same proportionally over the next 30 years which is not clear.

[Dan the Roman]

I am suspecting a Kadima-Likud-YB with Livni as Prime Minister, but Likud and YB controlling the key ministries. This gives YB secular partners, Likud power over negotiations and keeps Netanyahu out of the Prime Minister's office. The message tonight seems to be that voters wanted Likud but not Bibi. I think labour needs to go into opposition rather than prop up centrist or center-right governments, and Meretz, while potentially acceptable as outside support, is unlikely to be in an actual government.

The other problem with a leftist government is the Arabs. Such a combination would rest on their toleration, and I doubt any government dependent on Arab support would be acceptable to YB. Maybe the United Arab List, but not the others.