Israel 2009

[Yamor]

What is causing the widening gap between Likud and Kadima? Also, is the infighting in Likud (Beilin) making any difference?

[Yamor]

Interesting, and yes, I did mean Feiglin.

I saw somewhere today that Shas, interestingly, are reaching out to the Arabs, even giving them one place on their list, someone called Najib Me'udi. He says he thinks he could get them 20,000 votes. That's basically another seat. It must be a first for an ultra-orthodox party.

[Yamor]

As we get closer, it seems increasingly likely that Likud will win, although I'm sure it'll be closer then the polls suggest. I'm more interested in how well Shas and Yisroel Beiteinu will do - both potentially important coalition parties for Likud.
Anyone know anything about surplus-vote-agreements, or is it too early for that?

[Yamor]

It'll be touch and go for the greens to make the threshold.
Another interesting thing will be the situation with UTJ: will they run together or not? If they don't, will they both make the threshold?

[Yamor]

Why do people talk so much about Hadash? They're a very marginal communist party. It just happens that although it's not officially an arab party, most of their support is arab, as well as their policies.

Anyway, interesting rumours going round today that Shas might reinstall Aryeh Deri as party leader (although he still couldn't enter Knesset), as they think it'll bring them quite a lot more votes.

[Yamor]

Feiglin has been pushed down to 36 on the Likud list, meaning he most likely won't get in! Bibi must be very happy...

[Yamor]

I think Cylon was refering to the Livni-Mofaz leadership contest, in which the exit polls were a joke.

[Yamor]

Meretz primaries today, and this is a poll of a party with only about 1000 members I think!

[Yamor]

Only Kadima to go, and their primaries are on 17th December.

[Yamor]

Well, Labor were first, and they had embarrassing problems with a new electronic system, so they were pushed off a couple of days. The actual results didn't have too many suprises, although ex-leader Amir Peretz came in only at number 10.
Likud also had problems with their electronic voting system, and extended voting hours till one in the morning. The results there were not such a success for Netanyahu who's trying to move the Likud to a more centrist position, however quite a few far-right hardliners got in (although Feiglin, who's the leader of the major far-right faction got demoted from 20th to 36th, which actually is very likely to make the difference whether he gets in or not).

The voting system used is all party members select a certain amount of candidates, and maybe a local candidate etc. The final party list basically reflects this (i.e. most votes at the top, least at the bottom), except that there are reserved spots for women, arabs, druse, candidates from certain areas of the country, olim etc.

[Yamor]

Basically, however I'm not sure if they all use that. I know Likud do, and I'm almost sure Labor and Kadima also do. Of course they have different rules regarding how many candidates are chosen by each voter, and also regarding 'reserved' places (for women, minorities, local candidates etc.).
Regarding the reserved places there are also differences, with some reserved spots having a separate ballot, and some just promoting a candidate from the general vote to the reserved spot. For example, the reserved places for local candidates in the Likud primaries have a separate ballot, and each party member can only vote for the position reserved for a candidate from his area of the country.
This is actually what caused the confusion with Feiglin who originally received the 20th spot, but was then demoted to 36th. It was because the 20th spot was originally reserved for (I think) a woman, however a woman got higher then that anyway, so it was given to Feiglin. Then, however, it was decided to bump up all the reserved spots (the local candidates), so Feiglin got moved down to the next free spot, which was 36.

[Yamor]

It's more then quite unlikely, it's virtually impossible. No chance it'll ever happen.
Anyway, I find that poll very suprising, and I'm not putting much by it.

[Yamor]

Rumours are that the Degel Hatorah faction of UTJ may run on a joint list with Shas. That'll mean their combined list would almost definitely be the 3rd biggest party, as well as leaving it touch and go as to whether the Agudas Yisroel faction will make the Knesset at all. Haredi politics are a joke!

[Yamor]

Well, today are the Kadima primaries.
They've kept their original decision to use the new computerised system (they were considering reverting back after the problems Likud and Labor had). So far everything seems to be going smoothly.
Regarding what'll happen, no major suprises expected here, with most likely just a slight shuffling of the list from the last elections (which was actually decided by Sharon and not through primaries). Kadima didn't go out bringing in any 'big names' like Likud did, so the potential for current MK's to lose ground is much smaller.

[Yamor]

Two splits were approved by the Knesset House Committee. UTJ (Yahadut Hatorah) separated into Agudat Israel and Degel Hatorah, and Meimad left Labor to run on a list with the greens. Hatikva's split from NU-NRP is expected to be approved as well.
I actually don't think the official splitting of UTJ actually means anything - IIRC, they always split at the end of Knesset sessions to gain from party funding laws. That's not to say they will definitely run together, in fact it looks more likely they won't, but this official splitting doesn't mean anything, I think.

[Yamor]

There's talk of postponing the elections now. It'll probably depend on how the situation in Gaza develops. As it is most campaigning has been stopped.

[Yamor]

Yeah, because Barak is defence minister. It should help Livni as well, and explains why Netanyahu wants a unity government.

[Yamor]

I think Labor will gain more from having Barak as defence minister now then they'll lose from the Arab vote. Unless, of course, the war turns into a disaster for Israel, like Lebanon a couple of years ago.

[Yamor]

Poll taken yesterday, and published today by haaretz gives (brackets is from a poll just over a week ago, i.e. before the fighting started):
Likud 32 (+2)
Kadima 26 (+1)
Labor 16 (+5)

So, quite interesting, in that Likud are also gaining, and even slightly more then Kadima. The gains seem to come from Shas and National Home (NRP), who each have lost 3 seats.
Another interesting point is that although Likud's lead has gone up by 1, the total seats won by right-wing+religious parties has gone down from mid-sixties to precisely 60, with a corresponding rise for the left and centre parties. This, however, is not a sign that Israelis are against the fighting. It's just that Labor have got a major boost, since Barak is Defence Minister. In fact, a majority are in support of the fighting continuing, although it's only 52%.

[Yamor]

Today the central election committee voted to disqualify two arab parties from the elections. They won between them 7 seats last elections. This has happened before, in 2003, and the high court overturned the decision. They're expected to overturn it this time too.

Concerning delaying the elections because of the fighting in Gaza, it seems more and more likely they will be delayed. There is just some disagreement as to what sort of majority in knesset will be needed to vote in such a delay - any sort of majority, or a larger majority of 80-40 (I think the question is because a delay will not extend the length of time between elections to more then 4 years, in which case they'd definitely need a 'special' majority, it's just extending the time allowed when a government cannot be formed before elections).

[Yamor]

We're now entering quite an interesting phase in the elections, with parties starting to make agreements among each other to share surplus votes (since Israel uses D'hondt, it's better to be larger, i.e. more chance of an extra seat). So far I've heard only of an agreement between 'The Jewish Home' party and the NU (who last elections ran on a combined list) to be combined for the surplus votes calculations.

[Yamor]

Elections are in a week today.
The latest Midgal poll says Yisroel Beiteinu gaining at the expense of Likud, but Likud (28) still clear of Kadima (23) by 5 seats. They put Yisroel Beiteinu (18) above Labor (17), and Shas (10) well behind the two of them. Meretz (4) also look like not having done well the last few weeks.
Some analysts claim that Lieberman (Yisroel Beiteinu) will advise Peres to ask Livni (Kadima) to form the government, even if Likud outperform Kadima like the polls suggest. They say this even though Likud are more natural allies of Yisroel Beiteinu because Bibi has said he'd form a government with Shas who refuse to be in a coalition with Yisroel Beiteinu because of their secular views (to legalise civil marriage etc.).

[Yamor]

Shas have been in coalitions with Yisroel Beiteinu before. After all, they have similar views on many subjects outside religion. However, since they are both right-wing, and there is a sector who could vote for either of them, therefore they are battling each other quite strongly, with especially Shas coming out with virulantly anti-Yisroel Beiteinu slogans. Basically, Shas, in an effort to gain support from this sector have made it a major campaign policy to not let Lieberman's plans for civil marriage, and other secular policies, go through.

I don't know if there is any single, simple reason as to why Yisroel Beiteinu are doing so well. Especially since Lieberman is now under investigation by the police. I'd guess the main source for their gain is from the far-right support of Likud.

[Yamor]

Last time Balad got 3 seats, but if they'd got 10,000 less votes they wouldn't have got any, because they wouldn't have crossed the threshold of 2%. That is probably how this poll ended with them getting nothing, since a slightly lower turnout among their supporters and if a small amount move to the other Arab parties, they could end up with nothing.

[Yamor]

Latest poll (Yisrael Hayom):

Likud - 30
Kadima - 24
Yisroel Beiteinu - 17
Labor - 16
Shas - 9
Meretz - 6
UTJ - 5
Hadash - 5
UAL - 3
NU - 3
Bayit Yehudi - 2

That would mean the right would have 66 seats, compared to 54 for the left.

Turnout looks like being quite high, with 58% saying they'll definitely vote, and 34% unsure, compared to a turnout of 62% last time.