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  Zogby sez Obama does wellz OMG
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Author Topic: Zogby sez Obama does wellz OMG  (Read 1568 times)
Rowan
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« on: October 27, 2008, 12:04:22 am »

VA
Obama 52%
McCain 44.8%

OH
Obama 49.7%
McCain 45.1%

MO
Obama 48.2%
McCain 45.7%

NV
Obama 48.2%
McCain 44.0%

NC
Obama 49.7%
McCain 46.4%

FL
Obama 47.2%
McCain 46.9%

IN
McCain 50.2%
Obama 44.0%

WV
McCain 50.3%
Obama 40.4%

http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1612
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #1 on: October 27, 2008, 12:21:19 am »

Are these internet or telephone?
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ucscgaldamez
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« Reply #2 on: October 27, 2008, 12:22:17 am »

the link is down.
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Alcon
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« Reply #3 on: October 27, 2008, 12:22:19 am »


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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4 on: October 27, 2008, 12:25:32 am »

These polls make sense.

FL is a bit disappointing, but well - he's leading elsewhere.

Why did they poll WV ? They should have polled CO instead.
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« Reply #5 on: October 27, 2008, 12:32:50 am »

Zogby's telephone polls aren't a total joke, but they're pretty close.
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Reds4
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« Reply #6 on: October 27, 2008, 12:37:47 am »

Gotta agree on this one... picking WV to poll seems stupid... CO, GA, PA, NH... any of those would have made more sense.


These polls make sense.

FL is a bit disappointing, but well - he's leading elsewhere.

Why did they poll WV ? They should have polled CO instead.
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cinyc
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« Reply #7 on: October 27, 2008, 12:44:10 am »
« Edited: October 27, 2008, 01:01:40 am by cinyc »

These polls make sense.

FL is a bit disappointing, but well - he's leading elsewhere.

Why did they poll WV ? They should have polled CO instead.

Zogby's out to make HEADLINES, not polls.  So polling a supposedly close state that others don't makes sense in Zobgyworld.  He'll have McCain's lead at 10, then 5 (OMG!  It's TIGHTENING!), then 2 (Yikes!), then 12 (OMG! Obama's getting blown out!), then 5...
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ucscgaldamez
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« Reply #8 on: October 27, 2008, 01:02:28 am »
« Edited: October 27, 2008, 01:05:38 am by ucscgaldamez »

Is he on crack? Or, am I missing something?

Check this out:

Obama Ahead in FL, MO, NV, NC, OH & VA

UTICA, New York - Reuters/Zogby telephone surveys of eight battleground states show Democrat Barack Obama ahead in six. While his lead over Republican John McCain is less than three points in Florida, Missouri and North Carolina, these results still point out the daunting task McCain faces to reach the 270 Electoral College votes needed for election.

The surveys were conducted from Oct. 23-26. Sample sizes in each state ranged from 600-603, with a margin of error of +/-4.1%.

In addition to the states listed above, Obama also leads in Ohio, Nevada and Virginia. McCain leads in Indiana and West Virginia.

Pollster John Zogby: "McCain is well within striking distance in each of the six  states in which he trails. None of Obama's leads are outside the margin of error. [/u] However, unless McCain can take one of the big states won by John Kerry in 2004, such as Pennsylvania, he needs to win these six states. He might be able to survive the loss of Nevada, but probably not any of the others."

Here are the states where Obama leads, with each state's Electoral votes shown:


Virginia
   

13

Obama
   

52.0

McCain
   

44.8

Other/Not Sure
   

3.2


http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1612
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cinyc
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« Reply #9 on: October 27, 2008, 01:11:31 am »
« Edited: October 27, 2008, 01:38:41 am by cinyc »

Is he on crack? Or, am I missing something?

Check this out:

Obama Ahead in FL, MO, NV, NC, OH & VA

UTICA, New York - Reuters/Zogby telephone surveys of eight battleground states show Democrat Barack Obama ahead in six. While his lead over Republican John McCain is less than three points in Florida, Missouri and North Carolina, these results still point out the daunting task McCain faces to reach the 270 Electoral College votes needed for election.

The surveys were conducted from Oct. 23-26. Sample sizes in each state ranged from 600-603, with a margin of error of +/-4.1%.

In addition to the states listed above, Obama also leads in Ohio, Nevada and Virginia. McCain leads in Indiana and West Virginia.

Pollster John Zogby: "McCain is well within striking distance in each of the six  states in which he trails. None of Obama's leads are outside the margin of error. [/u] However, unless McCain can take one of the big states won by John Kerry in 2004, such as Pennsylvania, he needs to win these six states. He might be able to survive the loss of Nevada, but probably not any of the others."

Here are the states where Obama leads, with each state's Electoral votes shown:


Virginia
   

13

Obama
   

52.0

McCain
   

44.8

Other/Not Sure
   

3.2


http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1612

You're missing something.  Zogby's right (this is probably the first and last time I'll say that).

The MOE is for BOTH the Obama and McCain poll numbers, so assuming a MOE of +/- 4.1, in Virginia:

Obama could be polling from 47.9% to 56.1%; and
McCain could be polling from 40.7% to 48.9%.

48.9%>47.9%.  So McCain could be leading Obama.  The actual probability of that happening given these numbers is pretty low, though - about 3.6%, by my calculations.
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cinyc
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« Reply #10 on: October 27, 2008, 01:37:39 am »

In fact, any poll can be recast in terms of the percentage chance that X is winning.  Assuming Zogby's polls are methodologically sound (ha!), my math converts these polls into:

Virginia - 96.39% chance Obama is leading
Ohio - 87.67% chance Obama is leading
Nevada - 85.82% chance Obama is leading
North Carolina - 79.53% chance Obama is leading
Missouri - 73.64% chance Obama is leading
Florida - 53.02% chance Obama is leading

West Virginia - 99.48% chance McCain is leading (within MOE)
Indiana - 94.16% chance McCain is leading
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Queen Mum Inks.LWC
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« Reply #11 on: October 27, 2008, 10:42:24 am »

Database entries (and next time, whoever enters them, actually go and get the poll information state by state instead of posting the overall methodology info, and link the poll to the forum thread.):

OJ: https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?action=indpoll&id=3920081026023

WV: https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?action=indpoll&id=5420081026023

VA: https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?action=indpoll&id=5120081026023

NC: https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?action=indpoll&id=3720081026023

NV: https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?action=indpoll&id=3220081026023

MO: https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?action=indpoll&id=2920081026023

IN: https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?action=indpoll&id=1820081026023

FL: https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?action=indpoll&id=1220081026023
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