Quebec 2008: ADQ getting owned LIVE. LIBERALS LEAD DUPLESSIS!11!!!

[minionofmidas]

Vote shares?

[Linus Van Pelt]

Does QS realistically have any chance of making inroads outside of Montreal? Anyone know what and where their best showing outside of it was?

I haven't checked every riding, but scanning the regions where they're not totally garbage, it appears to be 5.8% in Rouyn-Noranda-Temiscamingue, a unionized mining area in the northwest. Which is, incidentally, roughly the riding that elected Quebec's only CCF/NDP provincial member ever, a CCF'er some time in the 40's.

I think it's extremely unlikely they're going anywhere outside inner east Montreal any time soon.

Rouyn-Noranda-Temiscamingue is no longer an unionized mining area. This is an urban area with many public servants and a farming rural area.

http://www.agnico-eagle.com/English/OperatingMines/LaRondeMine/Overview/default.aspx
http://www.xstrata.com/operation/horne/
http://www.alexisminerals.com/docs08/projects01.php
http://www.globexmining.com/cgi-bin/mm_core.pl?pid=584&id_submap=A
http://www.cadiscor.com/eng/properties/prop_info.php

[Hash]

Does QS realistically have any chance of making inroads outside of Montreal? Anyone know what and where their best showing outside of it was?

Apart from good results in other select urban areas (Hull, Taschereau in inner Quebec City) their best non-urban results is Rouyn-Noranda. IIRC, the CCF held its only provincial seat there for one term, though the guy won with something like 20% in a very divided election.

Turnout seems to be 57%, btw. Down from 71% in 2007.

[MaxQue]

Does QS realistically have any chance of making inroads outside of Montreal? Anyone know what and where their best showing outside of it was?

I haven't checked every riding, but scanning the regions where they're not totally garbage, it appears to be 5.8% in Rouyn-Noranda-Temiscamingue, a unionized mining area in the northwest. Which is, incidentally, roughly the riding that elected Quebec's only CCF/NDP provincial member ever, a CCF'er some time in the 40's.

I think it's extremely unlikely they're going anywhere outside inner east Montreal any time soon.

Rouyn-Noranda-Temiscamingue is no longer an unionized mining area. This is an urban area with many public servants and a farming rural area.

http://www.agnico-eagle.com/English/OperatingMines/LaRondeMine/Overview/default.aspx
http://www.xstrata.com/operation/horne/
http://www.alexisminerals.com/docs08/projects01.php
http://www.globexmining.com/cgi-bin/mm_core.pl?pid=584&id_submap=A
http://www.cadiscor.com/eng/properties/prop_info.php

Only 5 mines. Some areas are unionized mining but that is only some parts of the riding. This is an urban area with many public servants and a farming rural area. I already lived there.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Does QS realistically have any chance of making inroads outside of Montreal? Anyone know what and where their best showing outside of it was?

I haven't checked every riding, but scanning the regions where they're not totally garbage, it appears to be 5.8% in Rouyn-Noranda-Temiscamingue, a unionized mining area in the northwest. Which is, incidentally, roughly the riding that elected Quebec's only CCF/NDP provincial member ever, a CCF'er some time in the 40's.

I think it's extremely unlikely they're going anywhere outside inner east Montreal any time soon.

Rouyn-Noranda-Temiscamingue is no longer an unionized mining area. This is an urban area with many public servants and a farming rural area.

http://www.agnico-eagle.com/English/OperatingMines/LaRondeMine/Overview/default.aspx
http://www.xstrata.com/operation/horne/
http://www.alexisminerals.com/docs08/projects01.php
http://www.globexmining.com/cgi-bin/mm_core.pl?pid=584&id_submap=A
http://www.cadiscor.com/eng/properties/prop_info.php

Only 5 mines. Some areas are unionized mining but that is only some parts of the riding. This is an urban area with many public servants and a farming rural area. I already lived there.

OK, fair enough. This is a silly thing for us to be arguing about, as it's mainly terminological. I didn't mean most people work in mines - that's true almost nowhere in the first world in this age of mechanization - just that it's still an important part of the economy and likely (along with its history of having more mines) to explain in part why the region would have more votes for a left-wing party than other rural areas.

Anyway, as Kentoch pointed out, I was wrong about this being the best QS seat outside Montreal.

[MaxQue]

Does QS realistically have any chance of making inroads outside of Montreal? Anyone know what and where their best showing outside of it was?

I haven't checked every riding, but scanning the regions where they're not totally garbage, it appears to be 5.8% in Rouyn-Noranda-Temiscamingue, a unionized mining area in the northwest. Which is, incidentally, roughly the riding that elected Quebec's only CCF/NDP provincial member ever, a CCF'er some time in the 40's.

I think it's extremely unlikely they're going anywhere outside inner east Montreal any time soon.

Rouyn-Noranda-Temiscamingue is no longer an unionized mining area. This is an urban area with many public servants and a farming rural area.

http://www.agnico-eagle.com/English/OperatingMines/LaRondeMine/Overview/default.aspx
http://www.xstrata.com/operation/horne/
http://www.alexisminerals.com/docs08/projects01.php
http://www.globexmining.com/cgi-bin/mm_core.pl?pid=584&id_submap=A
http://www.cadiscor.com/eng/properties/prop_info.php

Only 5 mines. Some areas are unionized mining but that is only some parts of the riding. This is an urban area with many public servants and a farming rural area. I already lived there.

OK, fair enough. This is a silly thing for us to be arguing about, as it's mainly terminological. I didn't mean most people work in mines - that's true almost nowhere in the first world in this age of mechanization - just that it's still an important part of the economy and likely (along with its history of having more mines) to explain in part why the region would have more votes for a left-wing party than other rural areas.

Anyway, as Kentoch pointed out, I was wrong about this being the best QS seat outside Montreal.

Yes, but in that case, that should translate in Abitibi-Est also. Mining is very strong there also. Finally, I don't see why miners who are paid more than 20$/hour with many social advandages would vote for Quebec Solidaire.

I will analyse vote sections results from 2007 if I can to see patterns.

Edit: No clear pattern for miners.

[Upsilon]

Just a question : for wich party did Charest vote in the Federal Election this year ? He was leader of the Tories in the 90's but now did he really support Harper against Dion, a french-speaking liberal federalist like him ? Isn't he opposed to the ADQ, which seems to be close to the Tories ?

[Hash]

Just a question : for wich party did Charest vote in the Federal Election this year ? He was leader of the Tories in the 90's but now did he really support Harper against Dion, a french-speaking liberal federalist like him ? Isn't he opposed to the ADQ, which seems to be close to the Tories ?

Probably Conservative, though one can never know for sure. Some say Charest is even a member of the Conservative Party. The PLQ isn't exactly liberal either. Kind of like the BC Liberals. It's now a big tent for federalists, from the right to the left (though not many of the latter).

The ADQ isn't close to the Conservative Party. Sure, the ADQ is a bit Tory-like on the issues, but the only reason Harper briefly flirted with the ADQ in 2007 (when the ADQ was at 38% in polls, not 12%) was that he thought he could use the ADQ machine (lol) in the way Diefenbaker used the UN machine (now, that's a machine) in '58. When they saw the ADQ had little influence on the Tories federally and when they saw their collapse, they ended their flirtation. Dumont openly denounced Harper several times this year. Well, he had nothing to lose in doing so.

[Upsilon]

You think he remaind faithful to his party, but ideologically, is he closer to Dion or Harper ? About the ADQ, isn't the the electorate supporting them the same as that who support the Tories ?

[Hash]

About the ADQ, aren't the the electorate supporting them the same as that who support the Tories?

There's some overlap in some areas.

% ADQ in Montreal, 2007



Montreal, 2006 fed (Tories blue)

[minionofmidas]

Yes, but in that case, that should translate in Abitibi-Est also. Mining is very strong there also. Finally, I don't see why miners who are paid more than 20$/hour with many social advandages would vote for Quebec Solidaire.

I will analyse vote sections results from 2007 if I can to see patterns.

Edit: No clear pattern for miners.

Ah, but the question is: How do the descendants of the miners of old vote?

[Hatman 🍁]

About the ADQ, isn't the the electorate supporting them the same as that who support the Tories ?

This isn't true in Montreal (as you can see from the maps), but very true in central Quebec.

[Linus Van Pelt]

About the ADQ, isn't the the electorate supporting them the same as that who support the Tories ?

This isn't true in Montreal (as you can see from the maps), but very true in central Quebec.

It's more just that the Anglos don't vote ADQ. In the eastern half of the city and Laval, the correspondence is roughly there.

[MaxQue]

Yes, but in that case, that should translate in Abitibi-Est also. Mining is very strong there also. Finally, I don't see why miners who are paid more than 20$/hour with many social advandages would vote for Quebec Solidaire.

I will analyse vote sections results from 2007 if I can to see patterns.

Edit: No clear pattern for miners.

Ah, but the question is: How do the descendants of the miners of old vote?

For everybody. A big chuck of inhabitants of Abitibi-Est and some parts of Rouyn-Noranda-Temiscamingue are miners descendants.

[MaxQue]

They are quick. Precinct results were published December 19th.