Quebec 2008: ADQ getting owned LIVE. LIBERALS LEAD DUPLESSIS!11!!!

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According to my father, who got it off SRC, Charest is going to dissolve the National Assembly for December 8 elections.

Buh bye Mario!

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SRC [qm]

Radio-Canada.

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Dumont will win reelection. His party is a completely different matter.

Oh yes. My "buh bye" statement referred to the Official Opposition spot.

I'm endorsing the Greenies of course, but I hope the Libs win. Least worst option.

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Have there been boundary changes since the last election [qm]

No, but there is serious talk for redistricting before long.

Posted a thread with some proposals a while ago.

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About 70% of Quebecois disapprove of the election call at this date, as do both ADQ and the PQ (FWIW).

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Leger, change from June

    * LIB: 42% (=)
    * PQ: 34% (+2)
    * ADQ: 14% (=)
    * VRT: 4% (-3)
    * QS: 4% (=)
    * Autres: 2% (+1)

Crop, change from September

    * LIB: 38% (-3)
    * PQ: 32% (=)
    * ADQ: 17% (+1)
    * VRT: 7% (+1)
    * QS: 5% (+1)
    * Autres: 1% (=)

The QuebecPolitique site has changed around. And God, it's awfully ugly now!

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About 70% of Quebecois disapprove of the election call at this date, as do both ADQ and the PQ (FWIW).

Why would the PQ oppose it? Or is it just a political position?

Because there is a major financial crisis that merits government attention.

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Scott McKay, former leader of the Greenies, is the PQ candidate in L'Assomption. Apparently his ego was crushed when he lost the leadership. Poor thing.

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Scott McKay, former leader of the Greenies, is the PQ candidate in L'Assomption. Apparently his ego was crushed when he lost the leadership. Poor thing.

LOL. Does he have a chance?

It was PQ held until it went ADQ in 2007. But apparently his nomination isn't meeting with universal joy in the local PQ.

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Scott McKay, former leader of the Greenies, is the PQ candidate in L'Assomption. Apparently his ego was crushed when he lost the leadership. Poor thing.

LOL. Does he have a chance?

It was PQ held until it went ADQ in 2007. But apparently his nomination isn't meeting with universal joy in the local PQ.

I can imagine why.

I also think a candidate with the name "Scott McKay" doesn't help much in a constituency that is 1.5% English.

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Scott McKay, former leader of the Greenies, is the PQ candidate in L'Assomption. Apparently his ego was crushed when he lost the leadership. Poor thing.

LOL. Does he have a chance?

It was PQ held until it went ADQ in 2007. But apparently his nomination isn't meeting with universal joy in the local PQ.

I can imagine why.

I also think a candidate with the name "Scott McKay" doesn't help much in a constituency that is 1.5% English.

Reminds me of that Equality Party guy.

Ah, yes. The Westmount MNA who joined the PQ and ran for them in Verdun. Lol.

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Scott McKay, former leader of the Greenies, is the PQ candidate in L'Assomption. Apparently his ego was crushed when he lost the leadership. Poor thing.

LOL. Does he have a chance?

It was PQ held until it went ADQ in 2007. But apparently his nomination isn't meeting with universal joy in the local PQ.

I can imagine why.

I also think a candidate with the name "Scott McKay" doesn't help much in a constituency that is 1.5% English.

Reminds me of that Equality Party guy.

Ah, yes. The Westmount MNA who joined the PQ and ran for them in Verdun. Lol.

I'm sure than Westmount's inhabitants were very happy to have a PQ MNA. For Scott McKay, the problem is not his party change since before to be a Greenie, he was for PQ. He tried to be the Pointe-aux-Trembles candidate in 1998. The problem is than the executive of the provincial party rejected the candidature of the other person who wanted to be the candidate. Jean-Claude Saint-André, is the ex-MNA from this riding. He lost in 2007. The party rejected his candidature because he didn't agree with the project of waiting for another referendum and he refused to take a pledge than he will not loan money for his campaign.

Yes. Apparently the PQ bigwigs told him not to show up at the nomination meeting, since "there would be blood".

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Charest would prefer an election today without any campaigning.

Mario Dumont is now back to proposing frivolous sh**t again since he knows he won't win. Semi-privatization of HydroQuebec, healthcare, and more crap (plus his whole autonomy/constitution crap).

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Meh. Since the 2007 election, enough evidence has emerged to suggest to me that the sole reason for the ADQ's surge in 2007 was homophobia.

And Dumont taking over the debate on immigration.

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CROP, November 13

Lib 42
PQ 31
ADQ 15
Greenies 7
QS 4

Francophone: PQ 37%, Lib 36%, ADQ 16%, Green 6%, QS 4%
Non-Francophone: Lib 67%, Green 12%, ADQ 10%, PQ 6%, QS 4%
Best PM: Charest 43, Marois 29, Mario 12, NOTA 7, Undecided 4
Gov Approval: 59-40 approve
Referendum: 62-38 No

Junk:

Defense of Quebecois interests: Charest 37, Marois 31, Mario 13
Best to deal with financeland troubles: Charest 46, Marois 24, Mario 10
Interest in this boring crap: 62% don't give a sh**t.
Next Government 64-28 for a majority

Applied to HDKP's predictor

Lib 77
PQ 46
ADQ 2 (includes Dumont defeated wtf lol)

DemoSpace sez
 
Lib 65 (41.3%)
PQ 50 (33.8%)
ADQ 10 (15.7%)
Greenies 5.2%
QS 3.8%


Don't forget to laugh at people with low IQs in the ADQ ads.

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62-38% no?

Wow.

What is so surprising?

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62-38% no?

Wow.

What is so surprising?

I knew the tide is anti-sovereigntist, but I didn't think it'd be like this.

62% don't want a referendum, not 62% against independence.

No, that's completely wrong. 62% would vote no.

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Leger, November 17

Lib 44
PQ 33
Mario 15
Greenies 4
QS 4

Francophone: Lib 39, PQ 37, ADQ 15, QS, Greenies 4
Non-Francophone (small sample) Lib 68, ADQ 14, PQ 12, QS 3, Greenies 3
Changing votes: Lib 66% definitive choice, PQ 62% definitive choice, ADQ 48% definitive choice (50% could change)
Best PM: Charest 43, Marois 27, Mario 13, NOTA 7, Undecided 5, David 3, Rainville 1
Referendum: 63-37 No
Turnout: Compared to 2007, 48% are as inclined to vote as they were in 2007, 37% less so, 13% more so.

Junk:

Culture, French etc: Marois 54, Charest 26, Mario 9
Best to deal with financeland troubles: Charest 51, Marois 26, Mario 10
Interest in this boring crap: 51% don't give a sh**t. (including 59% of Adequistes)
Should Charest win: 64 say yes
Women PM: 92-6 say they'd be OK
Who will win Lib 75, PQ 14, Lived on another planet 4, DK 7

Applied to HDKP's predictor

Lib 73
PQ 50
ADQ 2 (includes Dumont defeated wtf lol)

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Riding polls!

Champlain (400 répondants)

PQ: 50%
LIB: 32%
ADQ: 15%
Others: 3%

Saint-Maurice (401 répondants)

PQ: 41%
LIB: 36%
ADQ: 20%
Other: 3%

Trois-Rivières (400 répondants)

LIB: 37%
PQ: 31%
ADQ: 21%
VRT: 7%
QS: 4%


Oh, and this is funny: http://medias.tva.ca/2008/11/19/1866.wmv.

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Riding polls!

Get out your salt, people!

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Comfortably ADQ in 2007, narrowly PQ (over PLQ) in 2003. ADQ incumbent is running as a Liberal.

Ah, yes, it's his seat. Forgot that.

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ADQ gain in 2007, narrowly PLQ in 2003.

Current MNA is Sébastien Proulx, ADQ House Leader and the only other ADQ MNA most people know.

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Wasn't that Duplessis' seat?

Yes. Trois-Rivières.

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Clowns are debating tonight. Obviously, I prefer to watch 22 Minutes.

Anyways, 3 polls

Nanos, November 23

Lib 44
PQ 36
Mario 12
Greenies 4
QS 4

No linguistic breakdown or anything, in addition to a different question. And Nanos has never polled Quebec provincial politics before.

Leger, November 24

Lib 46 (+2)
PQ 34 (+1)
Mario 12 (-3)
Greenies 4.2
QS 3.8

The full results are not online, but this is a quick overview of what we have available now:

Francophone: PQ 40, Lib 38, ADQ 14
Changing votes: 64% (+7) are sure. 33% (-6) could change.
Best PM: Charest 41, Marois 26, Mario 9, David 3

CROP, November 25

Lib 45 (+3)
PQ 32 (+1)
Mario 12 (-3)
Greenies 5 (-2)
QS 5 (+1)

The full results are not online, but this is a quick overview of what we have available now:

Francophone: PQ 39, Lib 36, ADQ 15, QS 6, Greenies 5
Non-Francophone: Lib 81, Greenies 8, ADQ 7, PQ 4
Changing votes: 64% (+7) are sure. 33% (-6) could change.
Best PM: Charest 44, Marois 27, Mario 12, NOTA 10, Und 6
Government: 44 want to keep the current government, 45 want a new one (37-52 in 2003 and 35-58 in 2007).
This is boring: 57% (-5) agree with me.
Approve: 51-45 approve of the government. -8 for approvals, +5 for disapproval.


Roundup of all predictions online

308.com Nov 25

Lib 67
PQ 54
Mario 4

HDKP Nov 25

Lib 79
PQ 45
Mario 1

Geloso-Breguet Nov 24

Lib 73
PQ 48
Mario 4

However, they say they wouldn't be surprised if only Mario survived for the ADQ and wouldn't be surprised if the Lieberals won over 50% of the votes.

DemSpace Nov 22

Lib 70
PQ 46
Mario 9

QuebecPol Nov 19

Lib 78
PQ 45
Mario 2

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More related to polls from 308.com (regional breakdowns)




Riding polls! By Segma (aka Zogby-ARG!)

Chicoutimi

PQ: 51%
LIB: 37%
ADQ: 6%
QS: 5%

Dubuc

LIB: 45%
PQ: 35%
ADQ: 13%
QS: 7%

Jonquière

PQ: 44%
LIB: 42%
ADQ: 9%
QS: 4%

Lac-Saint-Jean

PQ: 58%
LIB: 30%
ADQ: 5%
Greenies: 5%
QS: 2%

Roberval

PQ: 48%
LIB: 41%
ADQ: 6%
QS: 4%

All are currently held by the PQ.

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Nominations closed on November 22. 651 candidates.

Lib, PQ, Mario all running a full slate. 122 for QS, 80 Greenies, 23 Marxist-Leninist, 19 PI, 1 "Parti durable du Québec", 1 Republic of Quebec, 30 Indies. 8 registered parties are not running candidates, including the Bloc Pot, Affiliation Quebec, Union du centre, Communist, Christian Democracy (fundies), and other things I never saw before.

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Does the "peq" in "pequiste" refer to the PQ?

It does. "Pequiste" is a contraction of "PQ-iste".

"Adequiste" is ADQ-iste. And there's not really a similar word for the Liberals, except maybe PLQiste.