Quebec 2008: ADQ getting owned LIVE. LIBERALS LEAD DUPLESSIS!11!!!

[Linus Van Pelt]

11% of Anglophones are pequistes?

The poll said "non-francophones", which isn't quite the same - the PQ has some support among groups like Latinos and Arabs that are more likely to assimilate to francophone after a generation or two.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Are they running the same candidates?

Yes. David in Gouin, Khadir in Mercier.

Why are those areas so hardcore separatist?

Working-class Francophone districts, as said before in this thread.

Mercier is the Plateau, which has some blue-collar types left over from an earlier era, but nowadays a lot of it is more of a Greenwich Village/Quartier Latin-type vote. Check out your awesome maps for manufacturing or trades for Laurier-Ste-Marie in the gallery, of which Mercier is the northern half: it's not really a working class area. And I would strongly guess the QS vote in the area is mostly not from its working-class residents.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Isn't part of the gay quarter in Mercier? Or am I confusing it with something else again.

The gay area is in Ste-Marie-St-Jacques, the next one downtown.

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Sort of promotional BS, but gives the general idea.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Looks like turnout will be down a sh**tload.

Uninteresting election and *freezing* cold day today.

Normally this benefits the PLQ, since the oldies are more dutiful voters, but maybe not if it's weather-related.

[Linus Van Pelt]

PLQ leads Duplessis (lolz @ early results)

LOL still Libs 631 (87.6%!), PQ 51, Green 25, ADQ 9, QS 4

I assume some of the Anglo fishing villages on the far eastern shore that really should be in Labrador.

[Linus Van Pelt]

I assume May Chiu (QS-Outremont) is the same as the BQ candidate against Paul Martin in LaSalle-Emard in 06 who was basically a single-issue candidate on the Chinese head tax apology? LOL.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Ayah, sorry Verily for the double post - great minds think alike

[Linus Van Pelt]

Will Lawrence Bergman hit the big nine-o? He's currently at a weaksauce 89.6!

[Linus Van Pelt]

ADQ behind the Greenies in Ile-de-la-Madelaine. 1.5%

I really don't understand why Îles-de-la-Madeleine is so resistant to the ADQ.

For what it's worth, I think (not positive) the Madeleines are ethnically Acadian rather than Quebecois. Of course, that's just a difference, not an explanation in any way. But it's interesting to compare Reform stinking in the Maritimes.

EDIT: confirmed by Wikipedia. (if wikipedia says it, it must be true )

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[Linus Van Pelt]

LOL at what Solidaire put as its #2 myth to be dispelled about the party:

http://www.quebecsolidaire.net/10-mythes-sur-quebec-solidaire

Maybe not such a myth after all.

(Their choice of what to put at #1 is pretty hilarious too, and #7 actually would make me want to vote for the party more).

[Linus Van Pelt]

Does QS realistically have any chance of making inroads outside of Montreal? Anyone know what and where their best showing outside of it was?

I haven't checked every riding, but scanning the regions where they're not totally garbage, it appears to be 5.8% in Rouyn-Noranda-Temiscamingue, a unionized mining area in the northwest. Which is, incidentally, roughly the riding that elected Quebec's only CCF/NDP provincial member ever, a CCF'er some time in the 40's.

I think it's extremely unlikely they're going anywhere outside inner east Montreal any time soon.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Does QS realistically have any chance of making inroads outside of Montreal? Anyone know what and where their best showing outside of it was?

I haven't checked every riding, but scanning the regions where they're not totally garbage, it appears to be 5.8% in Rouyn-Noranda-Temiscamingue, a unionized mining area in the northwest. Which is, incidentally, roughly the riding that elected Quebec's only CCF/NDP provincial member ever, a CCF'er some time in the 40's.

I think it's extremely unlikely they're going anywhere outside inner east Montreal any time soon.

Rouyn-Noranda-Temiscamingue is no longer an unionized mining area. This is an urban area with many public servants and a farming rural area.

http://www.agnico-eagle.com/English/OperatingMines/LaRondeMine/Overview/default.aspx
http://www.xstrata.com/operation/horne/
http://www.alexisminerals.com/docs08/projects01.php
http://www.globexmining.com/cgi-bin/mm_core.pl?pid=584&id_submap=A
http://www.cadiscor.com/eng/properties/prop_info.php

[Linus Van Pelt]

Does QS realistically have any chance of making inroads outside of Montreal? Anyone know what and where their best showing outside of it was?

I haven't checked every riding, but scanning the regions where they're not totally garbage, it appears to be 5.8% in Rouyn-Noranda-Temiscamingue, a unionized mining area in the northwest. Which is, incidentally, roughly the riding that elected Quebec's only CCF/NDP provincial member ever, a CCF'er some time in the 40's.

I think it's extremely unlikely they're going anywhere outside inner east Montreal any time soon.

Rouyn-Noranda-Temiscamingue is no longer an unionized mining area. This is an urban area with many public servants and a farming rural area.

http://www.agnico-eagle.com/English/OperatingMines/LaRondeMine/Overview/default.aspx
http://www.xstrata.com/operation/horne/
http://www.alexisminerals.com/docs08/projects01.php
http://www.globexmining.com/cgi-bin/mm_core.pl?pid=584&id_submap=A
http://www.cadiscor.com/eng/properties/prop_info.php

Only 5 mines. Some areas are unionized mining but that is only some parts of the riding. This is an urban area with many public servants and a farming rural area. I already lived there.

OK, fair enough. This is a silly thing for us to be arguing about, as it's mainly terminological. I didn't mean most people work in mines - that's true almost nowhere in the first world in this age of mechanization - just that it's still an important part of the economy and likely (along with its history of having more mines) to explain in part why the region would have more votes for a left-wing party than other rural areas.

Anyway, as Kentoch pointed out, I was wrong about this being the best QS seat outside Montreal.

[Linus Van Pelt]

About the ADQ, isn't the the electorate supporting them the same as that who support the Tories ?

This isn't true in Montreal (as you can see from the maps), but very true in central Quebec.

It's more just that the Anglos don't vote ADQ. In the eastern half of the city and Laval, the correspondence is roughly there.