Quebec 2008: ADQ getting owned LIVE. LIBERALS LEAD DUPLESSIS!11!!!

[MaxQue]

I'm endorsing... um... f**k Quebec politics .

Indeed. Happy to don't have the right to vote this year.

[MaxQue]

Hurrah!

I support the PQ, of course.

You really trust Marois?

[MaxQue]

I agree with you Xahar, but I prefer Charest. He is the less awful. I also agree with Verily. We didn't have an inspiring leader since Bourassa and Lévesque.

[MaxQue]

Parizeau was amusing, certainly.

I would use the word stupid, but that wasn't the best prime minister. Better than Bouchard, however.

[MaxQue]

Scott McKay, former leader of the Greenies, is the PQ candidate in L'Assomption. Apparently his ego was crushed when he lost the leadership. Poor thing.

LOL. Does he have a chance?

It was PQ held until it went ADQ in 2007. But apparently his nomination isn't meeting with universal joy in the local PQ.

I can imagine why.

I also think a candidate with the name "Scott McKay" doesn't help much in a constituency that is 1.5% English.

Reminds me of that Equality Party guy.

Ah, yes. The Westmount MNA who joined the PQ and ran for them in Verdun. Lol.

I'm sure than Westmount's inhabitants were very happy to have a PQ MNA. For Scott McKay, the problem is not his party change since before to be a Greenie, he was for PQ. He tried to be the Pointe-aux-Trembles candidate in 1998. The problem is than the executive of the provincial party rejected the candidature of the other person who wanted to be the candidate. Jean-Claude Saint-André, is the ex-MNA from this riding. He lost in 2007. The party rejected his candidature because he didn't agree with the project of waiting for another referendum and he refused to take a pledge than he will not loan money for his campaign.

[MaxQue]

The leaders' debate is in danger.

Liberals don't want to negociate the structure and the moderator.

Charest hates democracy.

[MaxQue]

62-38% no?

Wow.

What is so surprising?

I knew the tide is anti-sovereigntist, but I didn't think it'd be like this.

62% don't want a referendum, not 62% against independence.

Ohh, I see.

No, 62% are against independence.

[MaxQue]

Notre-Dame-de-Grâce: A liberal stronghold. They endorsed the Green Party since that was their best result in Quebec in 2007.

Abibiti-Ouest: A pequiste stronghold. They finded a candidate but she didn't succeed to be on the ballot.

Gatineau: Liberal stronghold.

[MaxQue]

A look at Leger's recent huge polling spree I mentioned earlier.

Francophone: PQ 40, Lib 38, ADQ 14, QS 4, Greenies 4
Non-Francophone: Lib 78, PQ 11, ADQ 6, Greenies 4, QS 1

Regions (name coloured according to 2007 winner. Not going to attempt Montreal since I don't know where Leger broke down the city).

MTL-East: Lib 42, PQ 42, QS 9, ADQ 4, PVQ 3 (MoE 7)
MTL-West: Lib 70, PQ 16, PVQ 5, QS 5, ADQ 4 (MoE 7)
Laval: Lib 56, PQ 25, ADQ 13, PVQ 5, QS 5 (MoE 7)
Laurentides-Lanaudiere: PQ 42, Lib 27, ADQ 19, PVQ 6, QS 6 (MoE 6)
Monteregie: PQ 44, Lib 40, ADQ 12, PVQ 2, QS 1 (MoE 6)
Outaouais: Lib 53, PQ 27, ADQ 10, PVQ 6, QS 3 (MoE 7)
Abitibi: PQ 50, Lib 35, ADQ 6, QS 3, PVQ 2 (MoE 10)
Mauricie/Centre-du-Quebec: Lib 39, PQ 38, ADQ 14, PVQ 6, QS 3 (MoE 7)
Estrie: Lib 54, PQ 30, PVQ 7, ADQ 5, QS 4 (MoE 7)
Capitale-Nationale: Lib 45, PQ 29, ADQ 20, QS 3, PVQ 2 (MoE 5)
Chaudiere-Appalaches: Lib 51, ADQ 29, PQ 16, PVQ 3, QS 1 (MoE 6)
Saguenay/Cote Nord: Lib 46, PQ 40, ADQ 9, PVQ 2, QS 2 (MoE 6)
Bas-Saint-Laurent/Gaspesie: Lib 45, PQ 36, ADQ 14, PVQ 2, QS 2 (MoE 7)

Crude and rough representation of that:

I love my region.

[MaxQue]

My God. The Greenie in named Sébastien Beausoleil. In English: Beau soileil = Beautiful sun.

Also, the ADQ candidate is named Moscou Côté. In English: Moscou = Moscow.

[MaxQue]

Closed.

[MaxQue]

That was last Dumont election.

[MaxQue]

CBC.ca. But the election is over.

No. My MLA is not elected yet.

[MaxQue]

Does QS realistically have any chance of making inroads outside of Montreal? Anyone know what and where their best showing outside of it was?

I haven't checked every riding, but scanning the regions where they're not totally garbage, it appears to be 5.8% in Rouyn-Noranda-Temiscamingue, a unionized mining area in the northwest. Which is, incidentally, roughly the riding that elected Quebec's only CCF/NDP provincial member ever, a CCF'er some time in the 40's.

I think it's extremely unlikely they're going anywhere outside inner east Montreal any time soon.

Rouyn-Noranda-Temiscamingue is no longer an unionized mining area. This is an urban area with many public servants and a farming rural area.

[MaxQue]

Does QS realistically have any chance of making inroads outside of Montreal? Anyone know what and where their best showing outside of it was?

I haven't checked every riding, but scanning the regions where they're not totally garbage, it appears to be 5.8% in Rouyn-Noranda-Temiscamingue, a unionized mining area in the northwest. Which is, incidentally, roughly the riding that elected Quebec's only CCF/NDP provincial member ever, a CCF'er some time in the 40's.

I think it's extremely unlikely they're going anywhere outside inner east Montreal any time soon.

Rouyn-Noranda-Temiscamingue is no longer an unionized mining area. This is an urban area with many public servants and a farming rural area.

http://www.agnico-eagle.com/English/OperatingMines/LaRondeMine/Overview/default.aspx
http://www.xstrata.com/operation/horne/
http://www.alexisminerals.com/docs08/projects01.php
http://www.globexmining.com/cgi-bin/mm_core.pl?pid=584&id_submap=A
http://www.cadiscor.com/eng/properties/prop_info.php

Only 5 mines. Some areas are unionized mining but that is only some parts of the riding. This is an urban area with many public servants and a farming rural area. I already lived there.

[MaxQue]

Does QS realistically have any chance of making inroads outside of Montreal? Anyone know what and where their best showing outside of it was?

I haven't checked every riding, but scanning the regions where they're not totally garbage, it appears to be 5.8% in Rouyn-Noranda-Temiscamingue, a unionized mining area in the northwest. Which is, incidentally, roughly the riding that elected Quebec's only CCF/NDP provincial member ever, a CCF'er some time in the 40's.

I think it's extremely unlikely they're going anywhere outside inner east Montreal any time soon.

Rouyn-Noranda-Temiscamingue is no longer an unionized mining area. This is an urban area with many public servants and a farming rural area.

http://www.agnico-eagle.com/English/OperatingMines/LaRondeMine/Overview/default.aspx
http://www.xstrata.com/operation/horne/
http://www.alexisminerals.com/docs08/projects01.php
http://www.globexmining.com/cgi-bin/mm_core.pl?pid=584&id_submap=A
http://www.cadiscor.com/eng/properties/prop_info.php

Only 5 mines. Some areas are unionized mining but that is only some parts of the riding. This is an urban area with many public servants and a farming rural area. I already lived there.

OK, fair enough. This is a silly thing for us to be arguing about, as it's mainly terminological. I didn't mean most people work in mines - that's true almost nowhere in the first world in this age of mechanization - just that it's still an important part of the economy and likely (along with its history of having more mines) to explain in part why the region would have more votes for a left-wing party than other rural areas.

Anyway, as Kentoch pointed out, I was wrong about this being the best QS seat outside Montreal.

Yes, but in that case, that should translate in Abitibi-Est also. Mining is very strong there also. Finally, I don't see why miners who are paid more than 20$/hour with many social advandages would vote for Quebec Solidaire.

I will analyse vote sections results from 2007 if I can to see patterns.

Edit: No clear pattern for miners.

[MaxQue]

Yes, but in that case, that should translate in Abitibi-Est also. Mining is very strong there also. Finally, I don't see why miners who are paid more than 20$/hour with many social advandages would vote for Quebec Solidaire.

I will analyse vote sections results from 2007 if I can to see patterns.

Edit: No clear pattern for miners.

Ah, but the question is: How do the descendants of the miners of old vote?

For everybody. A big chuck of inhabitants of Abitibi-Est and some parts of Rouyn-Noranda-Temiscamingue are miners descendants.

[MaxQue]

They are quick. Precinct results were published December 19th.