Dude, if he's only up by three in Bucks, he's clearly not leading statewide by nine. It just doesn't work out. Unless the poll is total crap (which I guess isn't out of the question considering the source).
(By the way, let's continue discussing like this. It helps to debate in a civil way.)
(Bucks Win/PA Win is representative of a measure of how Bucks did in overshooting, or undershooting the PA victory)
Gore was +4.2 in Bucks, won PA by +4.17. (Bucks win)/(PA win) = 101%
Kerry was +2.8 in Bucks, won PA by +2.5. (Bucks win)/(PA win) = 112%
Casey was +17.04 in Bucks, won PA by +17.38. (Bucks win)/(PA win) = 98%
Specter was +15.84 in Bucks, won PA by +10.63. (Bucks win)/(PA win) = 149%
'06 Rendell was +40.22 in Bucks, won PA by +20.71. (Bucks win)/(PA win) = 194%
'02 Rendell was +28.64 in Bucks, won PA by +9.04. (Bucks win)/(PA win) = 317%
'00 Santorum was +16.09 in Bucks, won PA by +6.91. (Bucks win)/(PA win) = 233%
So it seems you assessment
MAY be correct, as far as Presidential campaigns go...so if Obama is +3 it would APPEAR he would win PA by +2.9-3.0. We shall see though.
