GA: Insider Advantage: Martin still can't take the lead

[Aizen]

New Poll: Georgia Senator by Insider Advantage on 2008-10-27

Summary: D: 44%, R: 46%, U: 8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Meeker]

Martin will get around 47% of the vote and no more.

[Lunar]

He's still underperforming Obama, which is the real oddity.  Southern Democrats normally overperform their national colleagues.

[TheresNoMoney]

He's still underperforming Obama, which is the real oddity. 

Only because the black people in the polls are refusing to say who they're supporting in the Senate race.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

He's still underperforming Obama, which is the real oddity. 

Only because the black people in the polls are refusing to say who they're supporting in the Senate race.

Reverse Bradley effect?  That's pretty wishful thinking there.

A question that hasn't been explored much is how thorough in voting these newly registered African Americans are, since Georgia does not have a straight-ticket voting option.  It'll be very interesting indeed to see what kind of undervote we wind up getting downballot as a result.

[TheresNoMoney]

Reverse Bradley effect?  That's pretty wishful thinking there.

It's not wishful thinking at all. If you look at the polls where Martin is slightly underperforming Obama, it's only because there's a much higher percentage of undecided black voters.

[Adlai Stevenson]

My prediction:

GEORGIA PRESIDENT -
51% (R) McCain
47% (D) Obama
  1% Others


GEORGIA SENATE -
52% (R) Chambliss
47% (D) Martin

[© tweed]

Martin will get around 47% of the vote and no more.

that could/should be enough to send it to a runoff unless the Libertarian falls apart here, and he isn't getting 50% anyway, so that is all that matters.

[Brittain33]

He's still underperforming Obama, which is the real oddity. 

Only because the black people in the polls are refusing to say who they're supporting in the Senate race.

Reverse Bradley effect?  That's pretty wishful thinking there.

A question that hasn't been explored much is how thorough in voting these newly registered African Americans are, since Georgia does not have a straight-ticket voting option.  It'll be very interesting indeed to see what kind of undervote we wind up getting downballot as a result.

I have pretty vivid memories of Michael Coles doing surprisingly well in the '98 GA Senate election which was the last time we had high African-American turnout vs. depressed white turnout in the South.