Counties for Kerry and McCain?

[Adlai Stevenson]

I thought this would be an interesting idea for a pre-election prediction.  It seems in every election there is a county that switches from backing the Republican or the Democrat to the other next time.  But could this really happen, and where? 

[Brittain33]

Were there any Dole counties that went for Gore? I know it's not an ideal comparison, but it's similar...

[Franzl]

I would suggest a county in my area....Calhoun, IL.

[Alcon]

Were there any Dole counties that went for Gore? I know it's an ideal comparison, but it's similar...

I assume you mean Gore counties that went for Dole?

I only found Orange county, Florida (Orlando).

[nclib]

Were there any Dole counties that went for Gore? I know it's an ideal comparison, but it's similar...

I assume you mean Gore counties that went for Dole?

Isn't that the same thing?

I only found Orange county, Florida (Orlando).

I think it's only that and Charles county, Maryland.

[Alcon]

Oh, yeah, sorry. I have no idea what I was babbling about, and I missed Charles county (La Plata/D.C. suburbs) too.  Sigh.  Thanks.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

There will be plenty of Kerry counties in Appalachia and the fringe south that will go McCain.  The trend of PA, TN, KY, MO, and AR to the Republicans relative to the nation is indicative of this.

In 2004, if Kerry were up 7% on Bush, he'd be comfortably ahead in Missouri, and possibly ahead in Tennessee as well.  Kentucky and Arkansas would both be races, too.  Instead, Missou is a dead heat and the rest of the fringe south is out of reach.

[WalterMitty]

chatham county nc is a possibility.

[Reaganfan]

There will be plenty of Kerry counties in Appalachia and the fringe south that will go McCain.  The trend of PA, TN, KY, MO, and AR to the Republicans relative to the nation is indicative of this.

In 2004, if Kerry were up 7% on Bush, he'd be comfortably ahead in Missouri, and possibly ahead in Tennessee as well.  Kentucky and Arkansas would both be races, too.  Instead, Missou is a dead heat and the rest of the fringe south is out of reach.

What's with this word "fringe"?

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

There will be plenty of Kerry counties in Appalachia and the fringe south that will go McCain.  The trend of PA, TN, KY, MO, and AR to the Republicans relative to the nation is indicative of this.

In 2004, if Kerry were up 7% on Bush, he'd be comfortably ahead in Missouri, and possibly ahead in Tennessee as well.  Kentucky and Arkansas would both be races, too.  Instead, Missou is a dead heat and the rest of the fringe south is out of reach.

Actually... there weren't enough Kerry counties in the fringe south to produce many flippers.  Still, I'd look at:

Magoffin, KY
Logan and Fayette, WV
Bradley, Lincoln, Monroe, Hempstead, and Randolf, AR
Clay and Van Buren, TN

Don't know the demographics in any of these (except the WV counties which are like 95% white).  From this lot there should be at least one or two flippers.  These are all low-population-density counties in areas trending Republican that only went marginally for Kerry.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

What's with this word "fringe"?

"Fringe" as in "outer."  As opposed to the "Deep South" and the "Coastal South."

I define the fringe south as WV, KY, TN, AR, and MO.  Call it "highland south" if you wish.  I don't mean "fringe" in any sort of negative sense.

[Reaganfan]

What's with this word "fringe"?

"Fringe" as in "outer."  As opposed to the "Deep South" and the "Coastal South."

I define the fringe south as WV, KY, TN, AR, and MO.  Call it "highland south" if you wish.  I don't mean "fringe" in any sort of negative sense.

Gotcha.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If the swing is strong enough, there (probably) won't be more than a couple here and a couple there. And there might not be much of an immediately obvious pattern to things either.

[nclib]

chatham county nc is a possibility.

Kerry won Chatham by only 5 votes, so anything is possible, but I wouldn't expect it to swing Republican.

[bgwah]

There will be plenty of Kerry counties in Appalachia and the fringe south that will go McCain.  The trend of PA, TN, KY, MO, and AR to the Republicans relative to the nation is indicative of this.

In 2004, if Kerry were up 7% on Bush, he'd be comfortably ahead in Missouri, and possibly ahead in Tennessee as well.  Kentucky and Arkansas would both be races, too.  Instead, Missou is a dead heat and the rest of the fringe south is out of reach.

Actually... there weren't enough Kerry counties in the fringe south to produce many flippers.  Still, I'd look at:

Magoffin, KY
Logan and Fayette, WV
Bradley, Lincoln, Monroe, Hempstead, and Randolf, AR
Clay and Van Buren, TN

Don't know the demographics in any of these (except the WV counties which are like 95% white).  From this lot there should be at least one or two flippers.  These are all low-population-density counties in areas trending Republican that only went marginally for Kerry.

Maggofin is one I think might be likely. Kerry only won it by 0.12% and it was Obama's worst county in the U.S. during the primary.

[Ronnie]

Dickenson county, VA seems like a pretty safe bet.

[Adlai Stevenson]

OK so we can answer this now.  I've noticed a couple in Virginia and West Virginia, and a lot in Arkansas obviously.  I haven't looked at Kentucky.  But are there any other interesting non-
Southern ones?

[2952-0-0]

Beaver, Fayette, and Washington in Western PA.

I think other posters have discussed this issue to death.