My respect for Massachusetts has declined considerably this election. I also expect that if the Bradley Effect occurs, it'll definitely occur in Massachusetts, and not any of the Southern or Midwestern states.
I think McCain has a ceiling here. I know a number of people, my family included, who disliked, and still dislike Obama, but are reluctantly supporting him over the last month.
That said, there is much less reason to rally to him, and the Democrats, and Deval Patrick are not particularly popular right now. Despite only running 44 candidates in 200 seats, the Republicans are likely to make significant gains in the legislature. There is just no real incentive to rally around the Democrats here.
By the way you can see the same sort of static thing in John Kerry's race. He is stuck in the low to mid 50s, but his opponent can't break 30. I expect high third party results in both races(6-7%+ in Kerry's).
