The coming McCain Victory

[Bob Dole '96]

I know, I know, this goes against the liberal blog thinking as well as everything you've seen in the mainstream media.  And certianly, Obama could win it but if he does, it will be by the slimmest of margins in the electoral college. 

Fact is, the O+10 polls have never been right.  Obama's people know they are wrong.  The race is a 3-4 point race, if you look at the reliable national tracking polls -- Gallup's Traditional, IBD, Battleground, and Rasmussen.  All, save Rass (who used a 7.2 Dem advantage) have reasonable partisan weights that have some semblance of historical accuracy.   And, Obama's support is incredibly soft, much softer than McCain's. 

For example, in Rasmussen, McCain's number has always been very close to his "certain to vote for him" number, while Obama's has been well over it.  Also, there are increasing signs that late breaking voters will go 2-1 (at least) for McCain, according to some pollsters internal analysis.

Now, make no mistake, Obama will likely do better in certain areas -- he won't lose as bad in the south due to the AA vote, and he'll probably do better than kerry in liberal states like calfornia, oregon, etc, where the liberal kook factor is very high.

That said, Obama has serious issues in Pennsylvania, Ohio, etc, states that Hillary won.  The state of Pennsylvania is being polled horribly -- drastic oversampling of Democrats.  The truth is that the race is a near tossup with Obama falling fast.  In fact, one reason Obama is headed to Florida is to head off a loss in Pennsylvania.  He could still hold on in PA, but it is slipping away fast.

If Obama wins -- it will be because he narrowly holds on to PA, NH, and ME-2, and picks up Colorado, Virginia, or Nevada.  From what I am hearing, the Obama folks increasingly feel like Ohio is slipping away, with Florida not far behind, though they think they have a chance in Florida.  McCain is attempting to close the deal in Ohio and protect against a CO loss by going to Pennsylvania.  Iowa is also closing fast, and Obama is returning for a lastminute visit this weekend to try to save the state.

It is my feeling at this point that McCain may lose the PV narrowly -- something like Bush lost it in 2000, and will at least be at 274 but possibly as high as 312 if he can win NH, PA, and Maine's 2nd.  I also think McCain may end up winning the PV but it would be narrow.

There are also signs to confirm my prediction in early voting numbers.  In Florida, despite an overall Dem +25 advantage in early in person voters and an overall Dem +6 advantage in all early voters, exit polls indicate McCain already has a lead.  While Dems have a registration advantage there, in actual identification (what they consider themselves), republicans have an advantage and most thing McCain will continue to improve.  Even the badly weighted public polls have it MOE there.  Fact is McCain will win Florida.

In Nevada, where Dems have a HUGE early voting advantage in Las Vegas and Reno, an exit poll only had obama up 50-48, a MOE basic tie.  Basically, R's will catch up in this R-leaning state and this number indicates that McCain will likely win here, evidenced by the fact Obama hasn't been there much, while Palin has gone out twice to nail it down.

Even in Colorado, where Obama supporters were claiming huge early voting advantages, Republicans are even so far, pointing to a McCain win when the R voters turn out on election day.  I can say with certainty that Obama's folks are greatly worried about the impact of some of these huge -gap media polls -- they think many of their people are simply not voting because they think it's in the bag -- when it never has been.  Obama's pollster even said today that it's razor thin in the BG states and they're worried.

So, while there is no certainty either way, the fact is that signs are pointing to a McCain win, somewhere between 274 and 312 in electoral votes.