Ahnuld amendment: chances of passing?

[M]

Okay, I know and am very excited about the proposed Orrin Hatch amendment that would allow a naturalized citizen of 20 years to run for prez, with the admitted goal of letting Arnold be nominated in 2008. (he was granted citizenship in '84, in time to vote for his hero Ronald Reagan). A lot of people on this forum know a whole lot on politics, and I was wondering if anyone can gouge the chances of such an amendment passing in five years. Who will support it? Who oppose? How exactly ois it likely to be presented? What wil GWB's role be? etc., etc., etc.

[M]

I agree with you on principle, besides for liking Arnold personally. What is ironic is that term limits were the darlings of the GOP in the Ike era. I don't know Granholm well, I probably disagree with her, but on principle I believe she should have the right to bring her case for election to the public, same as anyone else.
And I also oppose all term limits. Look at the mess in the Ohio legislature! And it was almost sinful to deny Rudi the right to run for reelection for mayor in 2000.

[M]

But I do think that what is fundamentally right id for the constitution to be changed to allow any naturalized citizen to run. I think Alexander Hamilton should have had the right to run.

As for Arnold's chances, it is true he needs to be brilliant in Kulifornya. But he can hardly fail to be. The economy has reached a low, there and nationwide, and is now picking up. He would have to do something really stupid to hamper its growth.

Arnold campaigned for governor of Kulifornya as a social liberal. Gee, who does that sound like? Oh yeah, that Reagan feller!

Outside of California, many Americans across the political spectrum see Arnold as a joke. They are not really in a position to judge though, are they? Kulifornya clearly saw the situation differently. And Reagan was seen as something of a joke too.

Doc Brown: "Ronal Reagan? The actor? And who's vice president, Jerry Louis?

Doc Brown: "No wonder your president is an actor! He has to look good on TV!"

Actually yeah, a lot of the people who vote GOP for prez are pretty moderate. But not primary voters. Arnold could have a problem there, as could another of my favorite candidates, Rudi.

I have trouble figuriing out what exactly the term Neocon means, it is almost always used negatively and there are few self described neocons. If it means small government, well there's a split in the party- both parties- about exactly how small govt should be. At present, you don't run into too many socialists or too many pure Laissez Faires.

What it usually seem to mean is supporting Wilsonian ideals on foreign policy, the idea that all mankind are created equal and deserve to be free, that we must pursue democracy by any means necessary, even force, and that democracies never war with each other, so spreading freedom has great stdrategic significance, and once all humanity is free, there will be no war.

If that's the case, yes, that point of view is extremely dominant among Republicans, with a few exceptions like Lincoln Chafee. It also has a significant following amond Democrats, usually DLC types. The fact is it is not a conservative viewpoint at all, but a fundamentally liberal one.

The Republican take on foreign policy is the main reason I am one. Otherwise, I probably side with Dems as or more often than not. But I just feel such utter revulsion for anyone who could, for example, deny us the chance to attack Iraq's brutal fascist dictatorship and liberate the nation, whatever our casus belli. In my mind, Bush's determination and his humanism, not his "hawkishness", make him one of the greatest presidents on foreign policy in history.

Schwarzenegger would, of course, kick some terror sponsor butt once he took the White House.

Wanna hear my biggest problem with GWB? He hasn't gone after Iran yet.

[M]

I agree with you, Ryan, but Senator Hatch has said publicly that the reason he started the amendment was to give Arnold a chance to take his case for election to the public.

I personally am a fan of both Schwarzenegger the actor and Schwarzenegger the politician, and would probably support Arnold for president in '08. But yes, I do agree that the constitution should be amended in this way because it is what is fundamentally right. I personally hope it does get passed. But it is a hard thing to pass any amendment, and absolutely has to be bipartisan. The original q was really not whether it was right or wrong, but whether it has the support to get passed.

[M]

Orrin's a good guy. Aside from being a prominent conservative senator, is there anything in particular that you dislike about him?

He is rather boring, and I usually agree with him!

[M]

You know what really scares me? The 2% of the American public that wants to see Orrin Hatch rip apart a mad dog. That's just sick!

Seriously, I absolutely agree that term limits are always a bad idea.