SHOCK POLL: McCain feebly clings to one-point lead in homestate

Lief 🗽
Lief
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SHOCK POLL: McCain feebly clings to one-point lead in homestate

« on: October 31, 2008, 11:02:57 AM »

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/28-30. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines)

McCain (R) 48
Obama (D) 47

Early voters (17 percent of sample)

McCain (R) 42
Obama (D) 54

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/10/31/11279/222/947/647893

Also hilarious from the poll, in a hypothetical 2008 matchup, McCain is getting Sununu'd by Napolitano.

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minionofmidas
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Re: SHOCK POLL: McCain feebly clings to one-point lead in homestate

« Reply #1 on: October 31, 2008, 11:04:42 AM »

Quote from: Resident of Real America on October 31, 2008, 11:02:57 AM

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/28-30. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines)

McCain (R) 48
Obama (D) 47

Also hilarious from the poll, in a hypothetical 2008 matchup, McCain is getting Sununu'd by Napolitano.

I find the latter result reasonably credible. The former, not so much.

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The Ex-Factor
xfactor99
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Re: SHOCK POLL: McCain feebly clings to one-point lead in homestate

« Reply #2 on: October 31, 2008, 11:06:10 AM »

Eh, it's Daily Kos. Their numbers have had a strong Democratic lean this entire cycle. I'm buying the rough 5 point margin out right now by other pollsters.

19% of the sample is Hispanic - hasn't turnout from them been abysmal in Arizona?

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Alcon
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Re: SHOCK POLL: McCain feebly clings to one-point lead in homestate

« Reply #3 on: October 31, 2008, 11:14:18 AM »

Probably too many Hispanics, but the internals aren't that off.

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© tweed
Miamiu1027
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Re: SHOCK POLL: McCain feebly clings to one-point lead in homestate

« Reply #4 on: October 31, 2008, 11:17:43 AM »

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Meeker
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Re: SHOCK POLL: McCain feebly clings to one-point lead in homestate

« Reply #5 on: October 31, 2008, 11:31:10 AM »

lol

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TheGlobalizer
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Re: SHOCK POLL: McCain feebly clings to one-point lead in homestate

« Reply #6 on: October 31, 2008, 11:54:12 AM »

Quote from: PPTE Meeker on October 31, 2008, 11:31:10 AM

lol

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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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Re: SHOCK POLL: McCain feebly clings to one-point lead in homestate

« Reply #7 on: October 31, 2008, 12:41:10 PM »

Damn..... McCain will have to call Obama "dad" if he loses Arizona....so much for "coming from behind".

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Lunar
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Re: SHOCK POLL: McCain feebly clings to one-point lead in homestate

« Reply #8 on: October 31, 2008, 12:42:29 PM »

I mean, I think Rasmussen's McCain +5 is the closest, but what's up with Arizona?

Are there that many CARL's out there?

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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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Re: SHOCK POLL: McCain feebly clings to one-point lead in homestate

« Reply #9 on: October 31, 2008, 12:44:25 PM »

Quote from: Lunar on October 31, 2008, 12:42:29 PM

I mean, I think Rasmussen's McCain +5 is the closest, but what's up with Arizona?

Are there that many CARL's out there?

AHAHAHAHAHA!! Yeah, socially liberal, yet racist as the dickens.

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Adlai Stevenson
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Re: SHOCK POLL: McCain feebly clings to one-point lead in homestate

« Reply #10 on: October 31, 2008, 06:24:46 PM »

My prediction:

ARIZONA PRESIDENT -
51% (R) McCain
47% (D) Obama
1% Others

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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
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Re: SHOCK POLL: McCain feebly clings to one-point lead in homestate

« Reply #11 on: October 31, 2008, 07:19:18 PM »

I think he's still going to win his home state, but he's in trouble for his re-election in 2010.

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TheGlobalizer
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Re: SHOCK POLL: McCain feebly clings to one-point lead in homestate

« Reply #12 on: October 31, 2008, 09:03:44 PM »

Quote from: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on October 31, 2008, 07:19:18 PM

I think he's still going to win his home state, but he's in trouble for his re-election in 2010.

I doubt it. If he loses, he'll go back to being the maverick, like pre-2000. He will have no reason whatsoever to kiss GOP ass any longer.

He'll be the most pro-immigration senator in the Senate.

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HardRCafé
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Posts: 4,364

Re: SHOCK POLL: McCain feebly clings to one-point lead in homestate

« Reply #13 on: November 01, 2008, 02:30:16 AM »

Quote from: Adlai Stevenson on October 31, 2008, 06:24:46 PM

My prediction:

ARIZONA PRESIDENT -
51% (R) McCain
47% (D) Obama
1% Others

This should be good.

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Verily
Cuivienen
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	Re: SHOCK POLL: McCain feebly clings to one-point lead in homestate « Reply #14 on: November 01, 2008, 02:32:10 AM »
	« Edited: November 01, 2008, 02:34:23 AM by Verily »

Quote from: TheGlobalizer on October 31, 2008, 09:03:44 PM

He'll be the most pro-immigration senator in the Senate.

That's the cause of most of his troubles in Arizona, actually. He'd be better off striking a minuteman tune. Napolitano has been pretty harsh on illegal immigration for a border governor, certainly more so than Perry, Richardson and Schwarzenegger. It's part of why she's popular. Arizona's Hispanic population has absolutely dreadful turnout and is much lower than that of New Mexico and California (mostly because the border is in the high desert and thus difficult to cross).

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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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Re: SHOCK POLL: McCain feebly clings to one-point lead in homestate

« Reply #15 on: November 01, 2008, 06:57:40 AM »

Quote from: TheGlobalizer on October 31, 2008, 09:03:44 PM

Quote from: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on October 31, 2008, 07:19:18 PM

I think he's still going to win his home state, but he's in trouble for his re-election in 2010.

I doubt it. If he loses, he'll go back to being the maverick, like pre-2000. He will have no reason whatsoever to kiss GOP ass any longer.

He'll be the most pro-immigration senator in the Senate.

plus Democrats have never put anyone worthwhile up against him.

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