AK-Sen, AK-AL/R2k: No, Ted, you have been convicted, and the voters agree

[perdedor]

I'm still not convinced that these guys are a credible polling source. None the less, Begich is going to win...Stevens is done. Likely not by this margin though, this is Alaska, of all god awful places.

If their homecoming queen wasn't on the GOP ticket Obama might actually be ahead here.

I doubt that. Alaska has voted Democratic exactly once in the state's existence (for Johnson in 1964). The only other time in history that it has been close was in 1960 when Kennedy lost it by 1%. I wouldn't see much for Obama in Alaska, Palin or no Palin.

[perdedor]

If their homecoming queen wasn't on the GOP ticket Obama might actually be ahead here.

I doubt that. Alaska has voted Democratic exactly once in the state's existence (for Johnson in 1964). The only other time in history that it has been close was in 1960 when Kennedy lost it by 1%. I wouldn't see much for Obama in Alaska, Palin or no Palin.

Look at the poll numbers pre-Palin announcement and tell me Obama couldn't have closed that gap given the state of the race at this point.  North Carolina and Missouri were both at a similar place as Alaska poll wise during the months prior to Palin's unveiling and now they are both looking like they could realistically go for Obama.  Without Palin on the ticket Alaska definitely would have at least been in Obama's second tier.

I'm still not convinced. Current polls have North Dakota and NE-2 as competitive. These states will go solidly for McCain as would Alaska have had Palin not been selected.