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  Rasmussen Pennsylvania: Closer and Closer
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Author Topic: Rasmussen Pennsylvania: Closer and Closer  (Read 15106 times)
Rowan
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« on: November 01, 2008, 06:59:41 am »

PA
Obama 51%(-2)
McCain 47%(+1)

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/pennsylvania/election_2008_pennsylvania_presidential_election2
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Franzl
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« Reply #1 on: November 01, 2008, 07:01:35 am »

Lord have mercy...

I've said before, that while I believe a McCain win is not likely in PA, that it was indeed the state I have been most worried about.

This poll does nothing to comfort.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #2 on: November 01, 2008, 07:10:47 am »

OK *closes eyes and claps* - It's November 4!!
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DownWithTheLeft
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« Reply #3 on: November 01, 2008, 07:18:55 am »

Obama <5 in state own congressman describes as racist?

Its 50/50 right now
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The Ex-Factor
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« Reply #4 on: November 01, 2008, 07:25:53 am »

Dammit now I'm going to have to withstand a few more days of widespread gloom & doom among my liberal cohorts.

According to a friend with access to the internals Obama lost 10% among Democrats and gained 15% among Indies. Make of that as you will.

edit: i see in the public release that Obama went from 86% Democratic support to 75%. How did that happen
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Adlai Stevenson
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« Reply #5 on: November 01, 2008, 07:41:58 am »

My prediction:

PENNSYLVANIA PRESIDENT -
53% (D) Obama
45% (R) McCain
  1% Others
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Mr.Jones
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« Reply #6 on: November 01, 2008, 07:46:35 am »

While McCain and Plain are regularly going there these days, Obama is remaining out of PA. This is definitely not good. He needs to go back there to stop this rot Sad .
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #7 on: November 01, 2008, 07:58:43 am »

Dammit now I'm going to have to withstand a few more days of widespread gloom & doom among my liberal cohorts.

According to a friend with access to the internals Obama lost 10% among Democrats and gained 15% among Indies. Make of that as you will.

edit: i see in the public release that Obama went from 86% Democratic support to 75%. How did that happen

Ask yourself if that seems legit...
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #8 on: November 01, 2008, 08:01:03 am »

Dammit now I'm going to have to withstand a few more days of widespread gloom & doom among my liberal cohorts.

According to a friend with access to the internals Obama lost 10% among Democrats and gained 15% among Indies. Make of that as you will.

edit: i see in the public release that Obama went from 86% Democratic support to 75%. How did that happen

Ask yourself if that seems legit...

Now I'm reading that...
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J. J.
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« Reply #9 on: November 01, 2008, 08:02:09 am »

While McCain and Plain are regularly going there these days, Obama is remaining out of PA. This is definitely not good. He needs to go back there to stop this rot Sad .

Obama was here Tuesday and Biden was in the Phila media market yesterday.

PA will be close, as I have been saying for, oh, about five weeks.

Turnout will make the difference.  I'm expecting a heavy black turnout, and I hope to have a good guess by 3 PM.
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Franzl
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« Reply #10 on: November 01, 2008, 08:02:56 am »

I don't think it's a good idea to question the legitimacy of the poll...We've seen tightening in Pennsylvania in many polls, and it should be our top priority to defend the state.

If we win Pennsylvania, we win the election.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #11 on: November 01, 2008, 08:05:07 am »

Obama numbers in last three Rasmussen polls: 54, 53, 51
McCain numbers in last three Rasmussen polls: 41, 46, 47

The statistical margin of error is 5%.

Make of that whatever you feel like. But please try to be rational. Hah. No hope there I think...
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Franzl
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« Reply #12 on: November 01, 2008, 08:05:57 am »

Obama numbers in last three Rasmussen polls: 54, 53, 51
McCain numbers in last three Rasmussen polls: 41, 46, 47

The statistical margin of error is 5%.

Make of that whatever you feel like. But please try to be rational. Hah. No hope there I think...

no hope for which candidate, Al? Smiley
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #13 on: November 01, 2008, 08:06:59 am »

Obama numbers in last three Rasmussen polls: 54, 53, 51
McCain numbers in last three Rasmussen polls: 41, 46, 47

The statistical margin of error is 5%.

Make of that whatever you feel like. But please try to be rational. Hah. No hope there I think...

no hope for which candidate, Al? Smiley

I meant that there's no hope of certain people here being rational Smiley
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #14 on: November 01, 2008, 08:08:34 am »

Obama numbers in last three Rasmussen polls: 54, 53, 51
McCain numbers in last three Rasmussen polls: 41, 46, 47

The statistical margin of error is 5%.

Make of that whatever you feel like. But please try to be rational. Hah. No hope there I think...

I'm thinking about trying to ignore PA until election day, lol.
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Mr.Jones
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« Reply #15 on: November 01, 2008, 08:28:05 am »

Question is what is happening there so suddenly that McCain is climbing up the lader so suddenly ? I dont see a real big game changing event there ? So how is McCain gaining the upward swing, so sudenly and so radically ?
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Zarn
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« Reply #16 on: November 01, 2008, 08:45:31 am »

Dow did better last week, so it swung back a bit to McCain. I think that is the most reasonable answer.

A less likely possibility but still a possibility is that PA Pumas tore off the mask (or are starting to do so). I have my doubts on this one, but the data coming from the FL and NV polls suggest otherwise about the number of Pumas. PA, being in the Mid-Atlantic, could have a greater effect, since Clinton is a Mid-Atlantic Senator, and has great appeal in the region. She did win PA in the primaries, so there are many potential Puma votes there.
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Ty440
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« Reply #17 on: November 01, 2008, 09:02:59 am »

LOL at all you Obama supporters saying PA was out of reach for MAC. SO Mason-Dixon and RAS say it's a 4 point race. We all know Obama underperformed by almost 3%  in the final RCP average in the primary. So right now on my map I'm shifting PA back to a pure tossup!
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Josh/Devilman88
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« Reply #18 on: November 01, 2008, 09:09:55 am »

LOL at all you Obama supporters saying PA was out of reach for MAC. SO Mason-Dixon and RAS say it's a 4 point race. We all know Obama underperformed by almost 3%  in the final RCP average in the primary. So right now on my map I'm shifting PA back to a pure tossup!

Dude to get to hyped up. McCain isn't going to win PA in the end.
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nick
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« Reply #19 on: November 01, 2008, 09:10:23 am »

LOL at all you Obama supporters saying PA was out of reach for MAC. SO Mason-Dixon and RAS say it's a 4 point race. We all know Obama underperformed by almost 3%  in the final RCP average in the primary. So right now on my map I'm shifting PA back to a pure tossup!

Can someone explain how in the hell can you have accurate polling on Halloween on  a Friday night. I'm discounting any bump for any candidate in the tracking polls today.

Golden Boy 1 meet Golden Boy 2....

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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #20 on: November 01, 2008, 09:10:52 am »

LOL at all you Obama supporters saying PA was out of reach for MAC. SO Mason-Dixon and RAS say it's a 4 point race. We all know Obama underperformed by almost 3%  in the final RCP average in the primary. So right now on my map I'm shifting PA back to a pure tossup!

Can someone explain how in the hell can you have accurate polling on Halloween on  a Friday night. I'm discounting any bump for any candidate in the tracking polls today.

Golden Boy 1 meet Golden Boy 2....



I'm sending you a present!!!!
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Franzl
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« Reply #21 on: November 01, 2008, 09:11:33 am »

LOL at all you Obama supporters saying PA was out of reach for MAC. SO Mason-Dixon and RAS say it's a 4 point race. We all know Obama underperformed by almost 3%  in the final RCP average in the primary. So right now on my map I'm shifting PA back to a pure tossup!

and his current RCP Average is +8.5, just so ya know.
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Ty440
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« Reply #22 on: November 01, 2008, 09:13:00 am »

LOL at all you Obama supporters saying PA was out of reach for MAC. SO Mason-Dixon and RAS say it's a 4 point race. We all know Obama underperformed by almost 3%  in the final RCP average in the primary. So right now on my map I'm shifting PA back to a pure tossup!

Can someone explain how in the hell can you have accurate polling on Halloween on  a Friday night. I'm discounting any bump for any candidate in the tracking polls today.

Golden Boy 1 meet Golden Boy 2....




Hate to break it to you.....

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports October 30, 2008.
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nick
nickshepDEM
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« Reply #23 on: November 01, 2008, 09:15:38 am »

LOL at all you Obama supporters saying PA was out of reach for MAC. SO Mason-Dixon and RAS say it's a 4 point race. We all know Obama underperformed by almost 3%  in the final RCP average in the primary. So right now on my map I'm shifting PA back to a pure tossup!

Can someone explain how in the hell can you have accurate polling on Halloween on  a Friday night. I'm discounting any bump for any candidate in the tracking polls today.

Golden Boy 1 meet Golden Boy 2....




Hate to break it to you.....

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports October 30, 2008.

Ouch... who the hell polls on moving/hell night? Obviously, Obama's youth vote is not represented in this sample!

I'm grasping at straws here...
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nick
nickshepDEM
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« Reply #24 on: November 01, 2008, 09:17:35 am »

Well, I guess this makes my Nov 4th decision a little easier... NOVA or Central PA....

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