Rasmussen Pennsylvania: Closer and Closer

[Zarn]

Dow did better last week, so it swung back a bit to McCain. I think that is the most reasonable answer.

A less likely possibility but still a possibility is that PA Pumas tore off the mask (or are starting to do so). I have my doubts on this one, but the data coming from the FL and NV polls suggest otherwise about the number of Pumas. PA, being in the Mid-Atlantic, could have a greater effect, since Clinton is a Mid-Atlantic Senator, and has great appeal in the region. She did win PA in the primaries, so there are many potential Puma votes there.

[Zarn]

This is McCain's ceiling.

It sounds more like Obama is falling rapidly from his high ceiling, almost like a ball bouncing off. Where is the ball going to be on Nov 4, and will it bounce back up enough (off the floor or furniture)?

I wonder if the Dow on next Monday would have an impact.

[Zarn]

On the Bradley effect: Why? It wouldn't mean the people are actually racist. It means they suspect others would view them as racists. Racists generally don't take care, when making 'racial'* remarks or taking 'race'* based stands.

With Dow, the only reason I would mention it is because we are nearing 10,000. It won't hit 10,000 before the election, but it could be close. Yes, I do realize that 10,000 is much bigger news than almost 10,000, but it doesn't mean people won't look at the numbers. Of course, going back under 9,000 could affect things, too.

I always figured low gas prices would help Obama, since he is offering less in the ways of more immediate results.

*I say 'race,' because humans seeing one another as different races is silly. Outside of being human, I couldn't even tell you what my race was. I guess I'm Hispanic (it seems to be a broad catergory)... maybe white (but I'm not "non-Hispanic white"). I have an Iroquois great grandmother, but that doesn't amount to anything (only 1/8). It's very confusing and seems pointless. Anyway, I think you get the point. Sorry, for the off topic rant.

[Zarn]

It is not the daily flucuations. It's the trend.

[Zarn]

Another factor to keep in mind is that the GOP usually overpolls in this state.

And Obama wouldn't overpoll in this state?

Also, Mason and Ras were very close in 2004.

[Zarn]

I he can take PA, I like his NV chances.