Final Pew national: Obama +6 (user search)
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  Final Pew national: Obama +6 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Final Pew national: Obama +6  (Read 3547 times)
kevinatcausa
Rookie
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Posts: 196
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.94, S: -5.04

« on: November 02, 2008, 04:53:52 PM »

Technically the poll result here is Obama +7, though it's still a significant tightening. 

The +6 is just hand waving and guesswork on the undecideds. 
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kevinatcausa
Rookie
**
Posts: 196
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.94, S: -5.04

« Reply #1 on: November 02, 2008, 05:40:35 PM »

What some people (e.g. ARG) use as a measure of a pollsters accuracy after the election is the absolute difference between the final poll's result and the final election result. 

For example, if the final result turns out to be 51-47 Obama-McCain, then a pollster who predicted 54-45 would be (54-51)+(47-45)=5 off, while one whose last poll showed 48-44 would be (51-48)+(47-44)=6 off, so the 54-45 prediction is deemed "closer" than the 48-44 one. 

This is absurd, but anyone who uses this sort measurement gives a pollster a strong incentive to just make their best guess at assigning the undecided voters, regardless of how accurate that guess is. 
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