2008 Presidential Predictions

[Harry Hayfield]

Having now found my projection, I can score mine:



State Wins: 47 out of 51 (wrong: IN, NC. MO, WV but got NE-2 right. Thanks NBC News)
% Wins:34 out of 51 (wrong: CA, ID, AZ, MT, NM, ND, NE, KS, MO, AR, IL, MI, DC, CT, RI, MA, VT)

Total Score: 81 out of 102 (5 congressional districts not counted)
% Score: 79.4%
% Score 2004: 79.5%
Change: -0.1%

(Any chance of a prize for least change since 2004???)

[Хahar 🤔]

New Year Presidential Election Analysis...

2008 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION ELECTORAL VOTE GOP/DEMOCRAT WINNER PREDICTION:

MAJOR SWING STATE SYNOPSIS PREDICTION: As of this writing (12/23/07), the 2008 Presidential Election electoral vote is going to hinge primarily on four (4) "swing-states": Florida, Iowa and New Hampshire and Pennslyvania. The most important of these, once again, will prove to be FLORIDA and PENNSLYVANIA.

Iowa, coming off its 2000 and 2004 election results, is a toss-up but leaning Republican. New Hampshire, which is steadily turning into a "blue state", is a toss-up leaning in favor of the Democrats. Florida, meantime, will go Democrat ONLY if Hillary Clinton is the party's nominee. If not, the state will go razor-thin Republican especially with the likes of a nominee like Rudy Guiliani.

While the "swing-state" of Pennsylvania still proves somewhat troublesome, it will in all likelihood go GOP as will Ohio. Michigan and Wisconsin, meanwhile, will repeat their past two presidential outcomes and go Democrat. Smaller swinger states like New Mexico and Colorado will go GOP, while Oregon will go Democratic. Nevada will, again, go Republican.

BLUE STATE SYNOPSIS: As for solid "blue" (Democratic) states, they will continue to be the Northeast states (save maybe NH) like Massachusetts, New Jersey and New York. Then, of course, there's also Democrat strongholds such as D.C., Minnesota, California, Washington state, and Illinois and Maryland.

RED STATE SYNOPSIS: As for solid "red" (GOP) states, they will continue to be the mid- and deep-South states (save maybe FL) like Virginia, Mississippi and Texas. Then we cannot forget the Rocky Mountain and Western state GOP strongholds like Utah, Idaho, Wyoming and Montana.

CONCLUSION: As stated above, New Hampshire's four (4) electoral votes will go to the Democratic Party nominee regardless of who they are just as Iowa's seven (7) will go for the Republican Party nominee regardless. Florida's very important twenty-seven (27) electoral votes, however, will give the Democratic Party the presidency but only if Hillary Clinton is the nominee. Otherwise, Guiliani, Mitt Romney or John McCain (and perhaps even recent pull-ahead Mike Huckabee or even Ron Paul!) each have a fairly excellent chance of victory.

OTHER NOTES NOT RELEVANT TO THE ABOVE ANALYSIS: This election will be slightly less close, both popular and electoral vote wise, then the 2004 race between Bush and Kerry. Therefore, the already slim chance of it being thrown into the House of Representatives because no candidate will obtain the necessary 270 electoral votes needed to become president, is less likely then it even was four years ago.

This was BS then, and funny now.