Official Election Night 2008 Results Analysis and Discussion Thread...

[Sbane]

Wow what a night. I can't believe Indiana voted for Obama. And it seems like NC will follow suit as well. Now hopefully prop 8 goes down in flames and this night will be complete.

[Mr. Morden]

So wait a minute.  At least as of this hour, it looks like the Gore/Kerry state (that is, states where the Democratic nominee won in either 2000, 2004, or both) where Obama's victory margin was narrowest was Iowa.  Not PA.  Not NH.  Not NM.  Not MN.  Iowa.  Did anybody see this coming?

[Robespierre's Jaw]

15 pages? This is weak.

Make that 16 pages now Xahar. I at least would have expected about 50 pages. I mean come on, this is fucking election day. Much bigger than the April 22 Pennsylvania Democratic Primary, which I believe manage to contain more than 16 pages worth of posts. Oh well Xahar, what can you do?

Just for your convenience, I have decided to create the final 2008 Electoral College map. Considering it has not been done already, or so I assume, on this thread previously. If somebody has, I apologize but I also say to them fuck you its Erection Day .

Barack H. Obama/Joseph R. Biden (D): 375 EV
John S. McCain III/Sarah L. Palin (R): 163 EV

[Tender Branson]

15 pages? This is weak.

It's only 15 pages because the Forum was down most of the time and nobody was able to post.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

15 pages? This is weak.

It's only 15 pages because the Forum was down most of the time and nobody was able to post.

Fair statement. Nonetheless, that really aggravated me today. But hey, I cannot complain, nor can any other supporters of Obama, who was elected 44th President of the United States as we already know . I'm not sure what's more so surprising. That Obama was elected or that Indiana voted Democratic for the first time since 1964.

[cinyc]

15 pages? This is weak.

Make that 16 pages now Xahar. I at least would have expected about 50 pages. I mean come on, this is fucking election day. Much bigger than the April 22 Pennsylvania Democratic Primary, which I believe manage to contain more than 16 pages worth of posts. Oh well Xahar, what can you do?

Just for your convenience, I have decided to create the final 2008 Electoral College map. Considering it has not been done already, or so I assume, on this thread previously. If somebody has, I apologize but I also say to them fuck you its Erection Day .

Barack H. Obama/Joseph R. Biden (D): 375 EV
John S. McCain III/Sarah L. Palin (R): 163 EV

You probably will have to flip Missouri.

Edit: Maybe not.  St. Louis County went back to 99% reporting.

[BlueSwan]

So wait a minute.  At least as of this hour, it looks like the Gore/Kerry state (that is, states where the Democratic nominee won in either 2000, 2004, or both) where Obama's victory margin was narrowest was Iowa.  Not PA.  Not NH.  Not NM.  Not MN.  Iowa.  Did anybody see this coming?

Well, it's still 9 points, so it's not exactly tight. But you're right in that I certainly expected New Mexico and Pennsylvania to be closer than Iowa.

[frihetsivrare]

Some of the swings were very interesting.  Tennessee, Louisiana, and Arkansas swung to McCain.  That's odd; even the Republicans' home states swung to Obama.  I also can't believe that Baldwin won over 1% in one state, but Utah would be the one if it happened.

CNN's maps are pathetic, they didn't even include Dean Barkeley in the percentages in MN Senate when I checked before; but he is now included.  They also don't include Anthony Pollina for VT Governor, and he was in second place.

[Tender Branson]

Hmm. Obama still down by only 6 in Orange County, CA. He could also win Riverside and San Bernardino.

[cinyc]

It's looking good for the corrupt Republican duo from Alaska - better for the one who hasn't been convicted than the one who has (72% in):

Stevens (Incumbent) 92,810 49%
Begich 88,284 46%

Young (Incumbent) 98,515 52%
Berkowitz 84,125 44%

I don't know what's out from where, so it's hard to predict.  Young looks like he's in very good shape.  Stevens' lead has pretty much held up.

[Verily]

Hmm. Obama still down by only 6 in Orange County, CA. He could also win Riverside and San Bernardino.

Yes, the swing in SoCal is very, very interesting. Also true in the Central Valley, of course; Obama winning Merced County by 7 points is pretty miraculous, really. (Bush won it by 14 points.)


Alaska is weird, and we have no idea what is reporting. Nobody is safe until the very end.

[phk]

Hmm. Obama still down by only 6 in Orange County, CA. He could also win Riverside and San Bernardino.

Yes, the swing in SoCal is very, very interesting. Also true in the Central Valley, of course; Obama winning Merced County by 7 points is pretty miraculous, really. (Bush won it by 14 points.)


Alaska is weird, and we have no idea what is reporting. Nobody is safe until the very end.

Turnout seems to be a tad down over 2004 in Central Valley. Fresno has 60k less voters.

[Verily]

Hmm. Obama still down by only 6 in Orange County, CA. He could also win Riverside and San Bernardino.

Yes, the swing in SoCal is very, very interesting. Also true in the Central Valley, of course; Obama winning Merced County by 7 points is pretty miraculous, really. (Bush won it by 14 points.)


Alaska is weird, and we have no idea what is reporting. Nobody is safe until the very end.

Turnout seems to be a tad down over 2004 in Central Valley. Fresno has 60k less voters.

It's possible, and indeed maybe likely, that the early call of Ohio for Obama really depressed Republican turnout across California (and also in other states which closed at 11 p.m.), while Obama voters were still highly excited to vote for a candidate they knew was going to win. If McClintock and Sali lose narrowly, that call of Ohio may be a deciding factor. (IMO Ohio was called somewhat prematurely, too.)

[cinyc]

Alaska is weird, and we have no idea what is reporting. Nobody is safe until the very end.

We kind of do, since we can tell which state House districts are in in the state House races.

The Bush is the most out (not surprisingly).  It leans Democrat in State House races, but usually doesn't vote a ton compared to other districts.   

Parts of 10 Anchorage districts are out as well - 5 with Republican incumbents, 5 with Democrat incumbents.  A Fairbanks district with a Democrat incumbent is partially out, as are parts of the Republican-leaning Kodiak and Eagle River districts.

[exopolitician]

Obama is coming up on 60 million votes.

[Tender Branson]

Time to call MO, IN and NC.

In Indiana only 2 Obama counties as well as 1 McCain county are left.

[exopolitician]

Time to call MO, IN and NC.

In Indiana only 2 Obama counties as well as 1 McCain county are left.

Indiana has already been callleddd.

[cinyc]

All in in Missouri - McCain +5,853.

[Verily]

Obama now down only 4 points in Orange County, California with 80% in...

[phk]

Obama now down only 4 points in Orange County, California with 80% in...

Wow

[cinyc]

Corrupt Alaskan watch (81% in):
Stevens, Ted    REP    95352    48.22%
Begich, Mark    DEM    91368    46.20%

Young, Don E.    REP    101658    51.50%
Berkowitz, Ethan A.    DEM    86692    43.92%

I think I'd call it for the not-yet indicted one at this point.  The not-yet convicted one (for voting purposes) seems to be keeping his lead.

[Хahar 🤔]

Obama now down only 4 points in Orange County, California with 80% in...

Wow

My god. Something is seriously wrong here.

[Verily]

Obama now down only 4 points in Orange County, California with 80% in...

Wow

My god. Something is seriously wrong here.

Maybe Torie was surprisingly representative of Orange County Republicans. (I have my own theories, and that's only a small part of it.)

[phk]

Obama now down only 4 points in Orange County, California with 80% in...

Wow

My god. Something is seriously wrong here.

Maybe Torie was surprisingly representative of Orange County Republicans. (I have my own theories, and that's only a small part of it.)

Whats your theories?

[Verily]

Obama now down only 4 points in Orange County, California with 80% in...

Wow

My god. Something is seriously wrong here.

Maybe Torie was surprisingly representative of Orange County Republicans. (I have my own theories, and that's only a small part of it.)

Whats your theories?

There are a number of interesting factors. I think the largest part of the Orange County swing was due to a big swing among young voters, who I suspect voted basically the same way as their parents in OC in 2004 but swung hard to Obama in 2008. There are other factors: the suppressed Republican vote on the west coast due to the early call of Ohio, increased Hispanic registration and turnout (I suspect Hispanic turnout was up almost everywhere while going down in Texas, balancing it out nationwide), and some other small factors. Torie is probably not wholly unrepresentative of OC voters, either; I suspect Sarah Palin scared a lot of the wealthy Republicans (as opposed to the fundie Republicans) in OC.