2008: Barack Obama (D) vs. Mitt Romney (R)

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Considering the 2008 Presidential Election process is nearly over, with counting still ongoing in Alaska and a possible recount in the state of Missouri, I have decided to create the first "past election what if" on this board regarding the 2008 Presidential Election. Its always great to have a first, and today has proven it .

How would the 2008 Presidential Election have turned out, if these were the tickets nominated?

Democratic
Senator Barack Obama of Illinois
Senator Joe Biden of Delaware

Republican
Former Governor Mitt Romney of Massachusetts
Senator Richard Burr of North Carolina

How does this 2008 match up between Obama & Romney turn out? Discuss with maps.

[phk]

NC to GOP, AZ to Dems.

[TomC]

No, NC and Ariz to Dems. Romney gets Nevada. Maybe.

[big bad fab]

317 - 221

Mitt would have been a bit stronger in MidWestern states.
He would have kept IN and NC but would have lost WV.
He would have been weaker in the South but not enough for Obama to grasp GA.
He would have kept CO and FL, due to better campaigning and more money.
He would have lost the Latino vote more heavily and, so, would have lost AZ.

[pragmatic liberal]

Honestly, I think the results would have been pretty similar.

Obama 52-Romney 46 seems pretty reasonable. In terms of individual states, Obama might have done a little better. Romney, due to his religion, would have been weaker throughout the South and other "Southernesque" regions. So I'd say Obama flips Missouri. He also wins Arizona. Georgia is closer, as is West Virginia, but both ultimately stay with the Republicans.

Romney continues to contest Michigan and does much better, but still doesn't win the state. Maybe he holds onto Indiana -- more money available plus more Obama volunteers and money invested in Michigan.

I think Romney would have been more likely to pick a fellow governor. Perhaps Haley Barbour of MS, but most likely Tim Pawlenty. He could have run a strongly Midwestern, Washington-outsider campaign that stressed executive experience over two senators. Had he picked Pawlenty, Minnesota would be a little closer.

The big question with Romney is whether his better handling of economic issues would have let him get closer on election day. My own sense is that the popular vote margin would have been roughly the same (his numbers would not have stayed where they were last spring). But I certainly think it would have been possible for Romney to have come within 3-4 points of Obama instead of a 6-point loss like McCain, due to a steadier campaign and a better response to the financial crisis. Had that happened, Obama still likely wins, but the that 2-3 point popular vote gain results in a much closer electoral college map.

So in a closer race with Romney, flip Colorado, NC, Florida, Indiana, maybe Ohio, and flip Arizona and Missouri back to the Republicans.

[Lincoln Republican]

Due to his demonstrable superior business expertise, voters turn to Romney as the best one to deal with an uncertain economic future.   

Romney/Burr                    308
Obama/Biden                   230

[Hash]

Due to his demonstrable superior business expertise, voters turn to Romney as the best one to deal with an uncertain economic future.   

Romney/Burr                    308
Obama/Biden                   230

You never change.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Romney loses, Obama wins.

[Lincoln Republican]

Oh, come on now, Alsaka, and I am going to miss GWB, there are so many Romney haters on this forum, that there would be plenty of Romney Gets Wiped Out In This Election scenarios for you to enjoy.

My scenario at least provides a different perspective, rather than the standard I really hate Mitt Romney more than anyone else in the world pronouncements so common on this forum.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Less of an Obama win, because Romney doesn't ignore IN, NC, and FL; 322-216:

[Blazers93]

Far closer than McCain, but Obama still wins 299-239. Romney makes huge upset in CT, but otherwise solid win for Barack.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I really hate Mitt Romney more than anyone else in the world

Me.

[Lief 🗽]

McCain was the best Republican that could have been nominated. Being a Mormon hurts Romney in the same places being black hurt Obama, leading to hilariously low turnout throughout the South and Appalachia.

[Lincoln Republican]

I really hate Mitt Romney more than anyone else in the world

Me.

Ya, we know, the whole world knows by now.

[perdedor]

Small, <2% swing to Romney. He probably takes N.C., that's all. Romney had his own problems to deal with, but McCain turned out to be the biggest asshat to have ever been put on a Republican presidential ticket.

[CultureKing]

McCain was the best Republican that could have been nominated. Being a Mormon hurts Romney in the same places being black hurt Obama, leading to hilariously low turnout throughout the South and Appalachia.

This one, Romney was not popular, and it wouldn't help that he was a corporate big wig with the way the economy has gone.

[Dr. Cynic]

McCain was the best Republican that could have been nominated. Being a Mormon hurts Romney in the same places being black hurt Obama, leading to hilariously low turnout throughout the South and Appalachia.

This one, Romney was not popular, and it wouldn't help that he was a corporate big wig with the way the economy has gone.

This is the one... The Republicans nominated the best candidate in McCain, they possibly could. Romney, Rudy, Ronnie, etc. all would've been crushed by much more massive margains.

[© tweed]

This isn't even worth responding to, really.  There is such a massive disconnect between the general opinion of Romney on this board and reality, it's almost laughable.

Romney's unfavorables consistently outpolled his favorables