What will final turnout be?

[pragmatic liberal]

Several articles are saying that turnout will ultimately be 133-135 million, but the popular vote totals right now are only slightly over 2004. That was a relatively high turnout election too (60% of eligible voters), but most projections had 2008 surging past that.

So what's the truth? Is it going to wind up in the low-to-mid 130 million range or is it going to stay in the mid-120 millions? And if it is going to edge into the 130 million range, where are all the outstanding votes? Right now it's only slightly over 120 million with 97-98% precincts nationally reporting -- so where are the rest of the votes?

From other blogs/articles, some people have offered the thought that overall turnout is up a point or two (and probably by 5-7 million more votes), but the increase was not as high as 2004 was compared to 2000. AND, turnout gains were uneven -- Democrats turned out at much higher rates, but Republican turnout was depressed. Also, while turnout was way up in some states -- such as newly competitive states -- in others, turnout was down. Ohio actually may have had lower turnout than 2004 and some are saying California turnout was lower than 2004 (although others are challenging that assumption saying that current California vote totals are higher than they were at this point in '04).

[phk]

Several articles are saying that turnout will ultimately be 133-135 million, but the popular vote totals right now are only slightly over 2004. That was a relatively high turnout election too (60% of eligible voters), but most projections had 2008 surging past that.

So what's the truth? Is it going to wind up in the low-to-mid 130 million range or is it going to stay in the mid-120 millions? And if it is going to edge into the 130 million range, where are all the outstanding votes? Right now it's only slightly over 120 million with 97-98% precincts nationally reporting -- so where are the rest of the votes?

There was some decreased turnout in various CA counties from 2004, I know and probably in some parts of KY.