The disordered mind of a swing voter....
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  The disordered mind of a swing voter....
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Author Topic: The disordered mind of a swing voter....  (Read 923 times)
Niles Caulder
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« on: September 19, 2004, 11:43:12 PM »

Man, on the surface of this--you'd think it was easy:

Kerry has apparantly crumbled and floundered his way into defaulting the race to the incumbant--for such an erudite and thoughtful man, he can't seem to convey a coherent policy...not twice in any two sequential days at any rate.  And sure enough, it's caught up with him in the polls--and of course the political wizards of the national media are telling us "of course!"

Despite most Americans feeling the country's going in the wrong direction, that the economy is icky, and that the invasion of Iraq was a bad idea--the incumbant President Bush has a discernable lead.

But Niles says 'Hold on a minute, now.'  Remember this is the same Senator Kerry who got himself written off by the media in the Democratic Primary until it was way too late for it to matter.  We're talking about a man who knows how to play possum, and make a late surge.  He's already fooled me once--it ain't happening again.  This guy will do more than "close the lead"--he will make a substantive transformative surge when it counts: and it will be one that catches folks off guard.  "Fool me once...."

All of which unfortunately gives me an ulcer.  Last presidential election I spent half an hour in the voting booth holding up the line trying to figure out who I should vote for.  Sure enough, the country followed suit, holding up the determination to the early cracks of a constitutional crisis.  I'm afraid I have to tell ya folks, it looks like I'll be in the voting booth a while again this time.  Sorry about that.  I'll try to keep it down under 20 minutes this time so the Supreme Court won't have to step in.

What the pundits are saying is true; Kerry is still a mystery.  But I'm guessing he'll put on a very alluring vision when the cue is called--and The Man in the Gray Flannel Suit will be reborn once again.

Of course, "the devil you know...."

I'd love it if news in Iraq would give me more of a decisive glimmer of which way I should go here.  I'm patient enough to let the differences between Iraq and Vietnam manifest themselves to our satisfaction in this case---but the X factor in my mind is this little tiny detail that just about a majority of the planet sees my cute little "Guv" as the antichrist---he's made himself such an effective lightening rod of everything baneful of the American archetype that he may simply be damaged goods (diplomatically speaking) that are no longer useful in the big chair.  As much as I hate the idea of rewarding the world for thumbing its nose at us for our choice in presidents, I'm worried that the world will hate us far far worse than it does now for re-electing him.
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Niles Caulder
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« Reply #1 on: October 04, 2004, 11:40:46 PM »

Well, it's been a while since the first debate--and Kerry's closed the gap for a while.  The media is just hot to trot about it, making it sound like it was the very surge I predicted!  Was Senator Kerry's performance THAT good?

No, it was not.

Now, I missed about half of the debate in the interior.  From what I gather, what I missed was a constant assault upon the president keeping him on the defensive.

So how do I know Kerry didn't do that well?  Well, I know the media  Wink , I know the sound they'd make if there was really a blowout.  But more importantly, I know what I did see.

So I'm now going to argue against myself in my very own thread!  (You can't say it was inappropriately titled.)

I prefer a close race, and am glad Kerry has pulled the race back close.  But what I was looking from him as a candidate was to do something new to create THE Mother Of All Surges...and that was stick to a story.

And he didn't do that.  And it seems to me he expects to get elected without having to do so.  And I'm here to tell you so long as he's under that impression, I can call this race right now.

Iraq was a great and terrible diversion from the War on Terror, unforgivably incompetent...well ok fine: if THAT'S the story...then why did he vote for it?  He picked the Wrong Story to stick to.  That's the Howard Dean story...and unfortunately he doesn't have the voting record of Howard Dean's preference.  That's the story where he would have had to answer "yes" soldiers are dying for a mistake--and maybe demonstrate a little bit of leadership skill in sumarilly acknowledging "everyone in government shares in that mistake" instead of 'This president misled me!!  That's why I voted your kids to war!!'  (I know the pitch of that sound if it were true, too.)

I like Senator Kerry.  I like his career, I like his performance in the Senate.  I was glad to have him in the Democratic field, and content with the Democratic wisdom of choosing him.  And if he gets the job, I think he'll be competent and determined to serve to the best of his formidable abilities.

But I've been about as patient with Senator Kerry as possible, and my patience is running out.  You don't fingerpaint foreign policy positions with selective "quantum logic."  There comes a day when you pick the ground to drive a stake, and you take the heat of defending that ground no matter what.  He may have improved in that respect in the debate...but it sure wasn't in the half I saw, and regardless it sure wasn't ENOUGH.

As of now, it may be officially too late for him.  I'm not talking about the whimsical winds of polls that flutter like that plastic bag in "American Beauty"---I'm talking about those furrowed brows in New Hampshire who have the cosmic antennae with regard to where to plant the flag at crunch time---they're guts may have already been steeled for the decision on 11/2.  I'm tellin' ya straight...if it came down to last Thursday, then they're stickin' with Bush.

I'm still undecided...but basically I know what I need to see from the man to decide this is still a race.
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opebo
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« Reply #2 on: October 05, 2004, 04:49:46 PM »

What's so disordered about being repulsed by two very problematic candidates? 
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