Normalized map (50/50 PV split)
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  Normalized map (50/50 PV split)
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Author Topic: Normalized map (50/50 PV split)  (Read 2871 times)
Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
Junior Chimp
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« on: November 05, 2008, 05:24:31 PM »
« edited: November 05, 2008, 05:47:52 PM by Beef »

[sarcasm]This is shockingSad/sarcasm]



Obama 269
McCain 260
Tossup 9

Iowa tipped Obama to an electoral tie, and Colorado put him over the top.

This map is eerily similar to 2000.  The electoral map hasn't changed all that much.
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Sam Spade
SamSpade
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« Reply #1 on: November 05, 2008, 05:25:22 PM »

This is news? Wink
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elcorazon
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« Reply #2 on: November 05, 2008, 05:34:56 PM »

uh, no, Obama had the tie before Colorado.  With Colorado, Obama wins no problem.
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Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3 on: November 05, 2008, 05:48:18 PM »

uh, no, Obama had the tie before Colorado.  With Colorado, Obama wins no problem.

You're right.  Silly me.  It's fixed now.
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elcorazon
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« Reply #4 on: November 05, 2008, 05:51:17 PM »

[sarcasm]This is shockingSad/sarcasm]



Obama 269
McCain 260
Tossup 9

Iowa tipped Obama to an electoral tie, and Colorado put him over the top.

This map is eerily similar to 2000.  The electoral map hasn't changed all that much.
This is the Nevada/NH swing from 2000 that produces the tie many thought could happen this year.

This kinda proves how possible the tie really was.  Had the election been 49.6 -49.4 McCain, it probably would have been a tie, according to this.

I was surprised that Iowa was at the center.

Based solely on the last 3 elections, Iowa looks like the current bellweather.
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Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
Junior Chimp
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E: -2.77, S: -8.78

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« Reply #5 on: November 05, 2008, 05:54:36 PM »


This is the Nevada/NH swing from 2000 that produces the tie many thought could happen this year.

This kinda proves how possible the tie really was.  Had the election been 49.6 -49.4 McCain, it probably would have been a tie, according to this.

I was surprised that Iowa was at the center.

Based solely on the last 3 elections, Iowa looks like the current bellweather.

Oregon is still a swing state too, even though everyone's forgotten.  It's one half northern California, one half Idaho.
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cinyc
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« Reply #6 on: November 05, 2008, 06:07:02 PM »


This is the Nevada/NH swing from 2000 that produces the tie many thought could happen this year.

This kinda proves how possible the tie really was.  Had the election been 49.6 -49.4 McCain, it probably would have been a tie, according to this.

I was surprised that Iowa was at the center.

Based solely on the last 3 elections, Iowa looks like the current bellweather.

Oregon is still a swing state too, even though everyone's forgotten.  It's one half northern California, one half Idaho.

...and 26% not in yet. Oregon might shift slightly when all the votes are tallied.  Smith could still lose.
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #7 on: November 05, 2008, 06:13:01 PM »

Wow. If the race had actually tightened, the chance of a tie would have been pretty good. We really dodged a bullet on that one.
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cinyc
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« Reply #8 on: November 05, 2008, 06:18:12 PM »

This is the Nevada/NH swing from 2000 that produces the tie many thought could happen this year.

This kinda proves how possible the tie really was.  Had the election been 49.6 -49.4 McCain, it probably would have been a tie, according to this.

I was surprised that Iowa was at the center.

Based solely on the last 3 elections, Iowa looks like the current bellweather.

I guess McCain spending so much time in Iowa makes some sense after all.
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Torie
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« Reply #9 on: November 05, 2008, 06:21:26 PM »

Wait a minute. Doesn't CO have about a 2% Dem bias this time?
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kevinatcausa
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« Reply #10 on: November 05, 2008, 06:51:37 PM »

The interesting thing to me was the following:

National swing needed for McCain to pull ahead in the popular vote: about 6.2%

National swing needed for McCain to tie in the electoral vote: about 6.8% (Obama's lead in Colorado)
National swing needed for McCain to pull ahead in the electoral vote: about 9.3% (Obama's lead in Iowa)

In other words (assuming uniform swings), Obama could have lost the popular vote by 3% and still pulled off a tie in the electoral vote.  Now that would have been a nightmarish scenario in the House. 
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cinyc
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« Reply #11 on: November 05, 2008, 07:22:25 PM »

The interesting thing to me was the following:

National swing needed for McCain to pull ahead in the popular vote: about 6.2%

National swing needed for McCain to tie in the electoral vote: about 6.8% (Obama's lead in Colorado)
National swing needed for McCain to pull ahead in the electoral vote: about 9.3% (Obama's lead in Iowa)

In other words (assuming uniform swings), Obama could have lost the popular vote by 3% and still pulled off a tie in the electoral vote.  Now that would have been a nightmarish scenario in the House. 

What was the actual result in ME-2?  The exits had it at 54%-43% Obama.   Would ME-2 have fallen before Iowa?  Looks like they were fairly close.
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Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #12 on: November 05, 2008, 10:36:12 PM »

Wait a minute. Doesn't CO have about a 2% Dem bias this time?

I'll update this map in a few days when more votes are in and we have more quality numbers.  It might shift around a bit.  At the time I took this snapshot CO was exactly the same margin as the nation PV.
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