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  Looking at the percentages, Obama could win a landslide in 2012 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Looking at the percentages, Obama could win a landslide in 2012  (Read 10909 times)
tokar
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 503
United States


Political Matrix
E: -9.87, S: -6.87

« on: November 06, 2008, 02:27:19 am »

If the economy improves markedly, I wouldn't be surprised to see him gain in MT, ND, AZ, AK, MO, GA, SC, TX and WV.

Pretty much...

A lot rides on his performance in office too.  If he does poor in office he might have trouble holding onto states like VA, NC, OH, FL, IN, NV, CO.

A cataclysmic event like 9/11 certainly would make things less difficult, as it would spark nationwide patriotism as seen with Bush in his re-election bid.  But no one wishes for cataclysmic events to occur (man-made or nature-caused alike).
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tokar
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 503
United States


Political Matrix
E: -9.87, S: -6.87

« Reply #1 on: November 06, 2008, 03:38:25 pm »

If the economy improves markedly, I wouldn't be surprised to see him gain in MT, ND, AZ, AK, MO, GA, SC, TX and WV.

Pretty much...

A lot rides on his performance in office too.  If he does poor in office he might have trouble holding onto states like VA, NC, OH, FL, IN, NV, CO.

A cataclysmic event like 9/11 certainly would make things less difficult, as it would spark nationwide patriotism as seen with Bush in his re-election bid.  But no one wishes for cataclysmic events to occur (man-made or nature-caused alike).

Even that depends on his response.  Remember Katrina.

True that...
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tokar
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 503
United States


Political Matrix
E: -9.87, S: -6.87

« Reply #2 on: November 06, 2008, 06:31:34 pm »

I think a Reagan/LBJ/Nixon-esque landslide would look like this for Obama:



KY and TN could possibly flip. He did at least break 40% in both of these states.

Agree with MOST of the map.
Don't agree with Nebraska (outside of CD2) and Kansas.  They were both McCain+16.

TX, WV, MS were McCain+12, +13 and +13 respectively.  Might be a bit difficult...
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