I'm in the process of doing one right now, though possibly based off of a different data set (I included the last poll from every firm which had one with a median date after 10/27). I'll edit this post once the results are finished.
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hmm...the problem I'm running into here is that some pairs only have one or two states in common, leading to very noisy results (quite a few cycles where A beats B beats C beats A). The straight averages are below (Positive means the firm in the row is on average that much closer to the mean, negative means the firm in the column)
ARG Mason/D PPP Quinn Rasmuss R2000 S.USA SV Zogby Joe
ARG 1.05 -0.42 -2.5* 0.07 -1.2 -0.87 -1.33* -0.37 -0.85
Mason/D -1.05 -0.53 -3* -0.78 -0.75* -1.71 -0.33* -2.83 -1.77
PPP 0.42 0.53 -1* 1.17 0.2 0.9 0.25* -0.07 -0.14
Quinn 2.5* 3* 1* 2.67* N/A 0.67* 2.67* 0 0.99*
Rasmuss -0.07 0.78 -1.17 -2.67* -0.83 -0.12 -0.67 -0.67 -0.99
R2000 1.2 0.75* -0.2 N/A 0.83 0.2 -1.5* -0.2* -0.2
S. USA 0.87 1.71 -0.9 -0.67* 0.12 -0.2 0.8 0.8 -0.88
SV 1.33* 0.33* -0.25* -2.67* 0.67 1.5* -0.8 -2.67* -0.73*
Zogby 0.37 2.83 0.07 0* 0.67 0.2* -0.8 2.67* 0.19
Joe 0.85 1.77 0.14 -0.99* 0.99 0.2 0.88 0.73 -0.19
A couple notes:
-As mentioned above, I took all polls with median day after 10/27 (including a couple 10/27-10/28 polls). If more than one poll came from the same firm, I took the last. This does leave out the 10/23-10/28 CNN/Time polls.
-The entries marked with a * in the table above were based on less than 5 states and likely to be rather noisy. R2000 and Quinnipac never polled the same state.
-Joe Average is the poll gotten by averaging all of the included polls. Since its effectively a poll with a larger sampler size, it will normally be better performing than an average individual component.
Quinnipac only polled two states, but they were within half a point in Florida and Pennsylvania. They were one of only two polls to on average perform better than Joe Average, the other being...Zogby.
