Bellwether counties for each state

[they don't love you like i love you]

We had a full list of this, anyone got it? Needs to be updated.

I thought Indiana and North Carolina would be interesting now, so I checked it out, and Indiana's is Tippencanoe now with the longest streak, voting with the state since 1940. North Carolina's is Forsyth since 1964.

[bgwah]

Washington's is King County, which goes back to statehood.

[memphis]

Local Memphis paper did a series of reports on various counties that were bellweathers back during the 2006 Senate race. I don't remember all of them, but Anderson, Dyer, and Polk were on the list.

[cannonia]

It looks like Monterey, San Benito, and Santa Barbara counties are tied for bellwether status.  All three go back to 1952 but not 1948.

[jimrtex]

We had a full list of this, anyone got it? Needs to be updated.

I thought Indiana and North Carolina would be interesting now, so I checked it out, and Indiana's is Tippencanoe now with the longest streak, voting with the state since 1940. North Carolina's is Forsyth since 1964.

In Alabama, only two counties switched between 2004 and 2008, Marengo (edge of the Black Belt) and Jefferson (Birmingham).  Based on the popular vote, Marengo is correct since 1992.  Based on the electoral vote, Jefferson is correct since 2000.

[nclib]

We had a full list of this, anyone got it? Needs to be updated.

I thought Indiana and North Carolina would be interesting now, so I checked it out, and Indiana's is Tippencanoe now with the longest streak, voting with the state since 1940. North Carolina's is Forsyth since 1964.

In Alabama, only two counties switched between 2004 and 2008, Marengo (edge of the Black Belt) and Jefferson (Birmingham).  Based on the popular vote, Marengo is correct since 1992.  Based on the electoral vote, Jefferson is correct since 2000.

I thought we were defining bellweather counties by how the state goes.

[jimrtex]

In Arizona, no counties flipped.  So, Apache, Coconino, Pima, and Santa Cruz are the bellwethers since 2008.  This ends the streak of Navajo since 1968.

In Arkansas, Obama only carried 9 counties vs. 21 by Kerry in 2004, with no flips to Obama.  So the 9 Obama counties are the bellwether since 2008.  This election ended streaks of Logan and Van Buren since 1960, and 4 others since 1964.

In California, 11 counties switched from Kerry to Obama, including Stanislaus and Merced which have been correct since 1972.  Based on the popular vote, the 11 counties that flipped are bellwethers since 2004, since there were no flips from Gore-2000 to Bush-2004 (San Diego, Riverside, San Bernadino, Ventura, San Luis Obispo, San Joaquin, Stanislaus, Merced, Nevada, Butte, and Trinity).  Note: Fresno is extremely close (within 26 votes according to CNN), with posibly 10s of thousands of uncounted ballots (late mail-ins plus provisionals).

In Colorado, 7 counties flipped, including Broomfield, which did not exist prior to the 2004 election.  Only two of these voted for Clinton in 1996, Alamosa and Huerfano.  Based on the electoral vote, Alamosa extends back to 1980, while based on the popular vote Huerfano extends back to 1992.  This is somewhat of an oddity since Huerfano has only voted Republican 2 elections since 1928 (in 1972 and 2004).

In Connecticut, Bush-2004 carried only Litchfield.  Based on the popular vote, its streak began in 1996, and the electoral vote in 2004.

In Delaware, Kent, the middle county is the only one to flip, based on the electoral vote, its streak began in 1996.  Based on the popular vote, in 2004.   Sussex County went for Palin/McCain by 9% over Biden/Obama, and Biden only barely won the Senate race there.  Note that New Castle had a streak from 1936 ended in 2004.

[jimrtex]

I thought we were defining bellweather counties by how the state goes.

The lists I had saved were based on the national vote.  Based on the state vote, there are counties that have been bellwether's since the 19th century.

BTW, a wether is a castrated sheep that has a bell around its neck that the flock follows.

[they don't love you like i love you]

I thought we were defining bellweather counties by how the state goes.

The lists I had saved were based on the national vote.  Based on the state vote, there are counties that have been bellwether's since the 19th century.

BTW, a wether is a castrated sheep that has a bell around its neck that the flock follows.

Yeah, I'm referring to ones that carry the state.

[Ronnie]

Vigo county, IN has a very long history of being a bellwether.  That's all I remember for now.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

In WI 1960-Present:
Adams, Jackson, Trempealeau, Buffalo, Crawford.

I need to sign up for membership to go back further.

Walworth County, I believe, has gone GOP ever election since the founding of the party, except for 1912 when TR split the vote.

[they don't love you like i love you]

For Virginia now: Loudon. Since at least 1932.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Ah found it: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=13414.0

Cass no longer applies for ND, and Brookings no longer for SD.

[they don't love you like i love you]

In Nevada, it's now Washoe and Carson City, and both only since 2000. However Obama came very close in Mineral. If he had took it it would've worked since 1980.

Arizona is kind of odd, the past three elections have had identical maps in who won. And Clinton did not pick up any counties and actually lost one from 1992-1996 when he flipped the state, so those three work only since 1996 (Navajo, Pinal and La Paz.)

[??????????]

Hillsborough County, FL

With the exception of 1992.

Sarasota county hasn't picked a Democrat since 1944 but it came very very close this past year (less then 200 votes).

[nclib]

Ottawa County, OH since at least 1960

[Ban my account ffs!]

My county had been a bellwether for Minnesota probably since it was established, except for 2000.  In 2000, the county went for Bush.  Much of that was due to the fact that Winona LaDuke was on the Green ticket, so they got 7% of the vote.

Otherwise, we've been with the state every other election as far back as I can think... and that wasn't any different this year.  Barack Obama beat John McCain in Beltrami County by 54.04 to 43.91 compared to 54.06 to 43.83 for the state.

Where we were more liberal than the state was on the senate race.  We broke for Franken 45.59 to 42.97.

This is because there are significantly fewer ticket splitters here than elsewhere in the state.  That is thanks in large part to the Native Americans who vote reliably DFL by a 95 to 5 margin.

[nclib]

CO: Larimer since at least 1960
IA: Cedar, Louisa since at least 1960
NM: Colfax since 1992

[they don't love you like i love you]

My county had been a bellwether for Minnesota probably since it was established, except for 2000.  In 2000, the county went for Bush.  Much of that was due to the fact that Winona LaDuke was on the Green ticket, so they got 7% of the vote.

Otherwise, we've been with the state every other election as far back as I can think... and that wasn't any different this year.  Barack Obama beat John McCain in Beltrami County by 54.04 to 43.91 compared to 54.06 to 43.83 for the state.

Where we were more liberal than the state was on the senate race.  We broke for Franken 45.59 to 42.97.

This is because there are significantly fewer ticket splitters here than elsewhere in the state.  That is thanks in large part to the Native Americans who vote reliably DFL by a 95 to 5 margin.

Pine is the best bellwether for Minnesota, it's gone with the winner every election since 1960.

[Brittain33]

Essex County, MA goes as far back as the atlas has. It is a microcosm of the state, so that's neat.

Everything else drops out by 1972, with Nantucket and Franklin County as the runner-ups.

[Verily]

Historically, Burlington County very closely tracks the statewide result in New Jersey in all general elections, but it swung strongly towards the Democrats this year, much more so than the state as a whole. Actually, South Jersey generally had a larger swing to Obama than North Jersey, maybe because of the Obama ad bombardment from Philadelphia against McCain's relatively small buys (whereas in 2004 Bush and Kerry bombarded the area equally).

Burlington also had an odd love for Carter in 1976 (but not 1980).

[Associate Justice PiT]

     Santa Barbara county has voted with CA since at least 1960. I didn't feel like looking for others.

[Padfoot]

For Ohio, Ottawa County has picked the winner in at least every election starting with 1960 but I can't see any data beyond that year.