Bellwether counties for each state

[jimrtex]

We had a full list of this, anyone got it? Needs to be updated.

I thought Indiana and North Carolina would be interesting now, so I checked it out, and Indiana's is Tippencanoe now with the longest streak, voting with the state since 1940. North Carolina's is Forsyth since 1964.

In Alabama, only two counties switched between 2004 and 2008, Marengo (edge of the Black Belt) and Jefferson (Birmingham).  Based on the popular vote, Marengo is correct since 1992.  Based on the electoral vote, Jefferson is correct since 2000.

[jimrtex]

In Arizona, no counties flipped.  So, Apache, Coconino, Pima, and Santa Cruz are the bellwethers since 2008.  This ends the streak of Navajo since 1968.

In Arkansas, Obama only carried 9 counties vs. 21 by Kerry in 2004, with no flips to Obama.  So the 9 Obama counties are the bellwether since 2008.  This election ended streaks of Logan and Van Buren since 1960, and 4 others since 1964.

In California, 11 counties switched from Kerry to Obama, including Stanislaus and Merced which have been correct since 1972.  Based on the popular vote, the 11 counties that flipped are bellwethers since 2004, since there were no flips from Gore-2000 to Bush-2004 (San Diego, Riverside, San Bernadino, Ventura, San Luis Obispo, San Joaquin, Stanislaus, Merced, Nevada, Butte, and Trinity).  Note: Fresno is extremely close (within 26 votes according to CNN), with posibly 10s of thousands of uncounted ballots (late mail-ins plus provisionals).

In Colorado, 7 counties flipped, including Broomfield, which did not exist prior to the 2004 election.  Only two of these voted for Clinton in 1996, Alamosa and Huerfano.  Based on the electoral vote, Alamosa extends back to 1980, while based on the popular vote Huerfano extends back to 1992.  This is somewhat of an oddity since Huerfano has only voted Republican 2 elections since 1928 (in 1972 and 2004).

In Connecticut, Bush-2004 carried only Litchfield.  Based on the popular vote, its streak began in 1996, and the electoral vote in 2004.

In Delaware, Kent, the middle county is the only one to flip, based on the electoral vote, its streak began in 1996.  Based on the popular vote, in 2004.   Sussex County went for Palin/McCain by 9% over Biden/Obama, and Biden only barely won the Senate race there.  Note that New Castle had a streak from 1936 ended in 2004.

[jimrtex]

I thought we were defining bellweather counties by how the state goes.

The lists I had saved were based on the national vote.  Based on the state vote, there are counties that have been bellwether's since the 19th century.

BTW, a wether is a castrated sheep that has a bell around its neck that the flock follows.