2009 New Jersey Governor's Race

[Zarn]

Are any blacks showing up?

I don't know about the cities. I didn't see any voting in suburban Burlington. We have old people voting, though.

[YankeeFan007]

Are any blacks showing up?

Paramus is predominantly white so I couldn't tell you, but from what I've heard other people say on different forum and after reading a couple of articles, I think blacks are showing up at 25-30%.

[Phony Moderate]

I have two questions.

1. Does anyone know a website which is showing returns?

2. Any exit poll leaks?

[YankeeFan007]

I have two questions.

1. Does anyone know a website which is showing returns?

2. Any exit poll leaks?

No, but Politicker NJ will have any New Jersey political story as soon as it comes out.

[Phony Moderate]

Returns should appear here:

http://www.nj.com/elections/

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Does anyone have links for NJ, VA, and NY returns tonight?

The soonest place you'll find results in NJ is at the individual county clerk websites throughout the state.  PolitickerNJ was kind enough to provide a list of them for the most eager of junkies here.

You may want to pay most attention to the major ones:

ATLANTIC: http://www.aclink.org/elections/
Christie Target: +0.4%
Atlantic is important more as a bellweather than anything else.  Christie Whitman lost it huge in 1993, but Florio was the native son—that kind of dynamic won't be present in a race between a Mendham Republican and a Hoboken Democrat.  Corzine won by 6,500 votes here in 2005.

BURLINGTON: http://www.co.burlington.nj.us/election07/general/Summary%20Report.pdf
Christie Target: +5.5%
Burlington is important for Christie.  He'll win it—Democrats' hopes of picking up countywide seats here are all but given up on.  At double the size of Atlantic, this is a key area for Christie to run up his vote total if he's going to win statewide.  Corzine won Burlington in 2005 by that same 6,500 vote margin.

ESSEX: http://www.essexclerk.com/election/ElectionFrame.html
Corzine Target: +37.5%
This is the largest source of urban Democratic votes in the state.  What matters here is not whether Corzine gets that +37.5% target, because this is not a county thick with swing voters. It's what the turnout is like that's key.  Corzine milked an 85,500 vote margin out of here four years ago.  He'll need to keep from bleeding too much of that out.

MIDDLESEX: http://www.co.middlesex.nj.us/countyclerk/electionsresults.asp
Corzine Target: +6.8%
Middlesex gained some attention (from me) during the Primary when 1 out of 3 Democratic voters opted for a candidate other than Corzine.  It's also heavy with "Reagan Democrats," who almost always vote D, but have gone Republican to send messages in the past (1984, 1991, and 1993, most notably).  Watch here to see how much Daggett effects the Democrat suburban base, which could be a harbinger of results in Mercer and Union Counties. Corzine had a 32,000 vote margin in the county last time.

MONMOUTH: http://www.co.monmouth.nj.us/ElectionResults/Election%20Result.htm
Christie Target: +19.3%
Monmouth is a huge shore county, and it's going to vote Republican. There are a few swaths of Democratic strength, but largely, voters here are conservative exurbanites—exactly the type of voter most upset at Corzine.  Daggett is totally buried on the ballot here, so it'll be interesting to gauge how willing voters truly are to search him out. Forrester won here by 16,000, but Christie needs to do much better than that.

MORRIS: http://www.morriscountyclerk.org/html/Elections/elect_results/election%20result_dtl.htm
Christie Target: 25.8%
Morris is Christie's home county, and this is precisely where the Republican needs to be on top of his game.  It's notably smaller than Monmouth, but it gave Doug Forrester a stronger margin; Christie needs to get his numbers up here as much as possible.  Presumably, this won't be a challenge: Voters here are energized.  This one is all about turnout—there likely aren't going to be a huge number of voters left to swing, but Daggett doing well here could seriously hurt. Forrester won Morris with a 21,500+ vote margin.

A note on BERGEN: I hesitate to leave out Bergen, because of its usual importance, but I did so here if only because State Senator Weinberg's presence on the Dem ticket may skew the results. I can't say I know precisely how well either side needs to do there, but at the least, Christie should aim to win it.  Daggett is actually listed third on the ballot here, so he could certainly play a factor.

[cinyc]

Does anyone have links for NJ, VA, and NY returns tonight?

The soonest place you'll find results in NJ is at the individual county clerk websites throughout the state.

That will probably be true for NY-23, as well - if the individual counties even post results on their website.  I'll see if I can make up a list for the NY-23 thread.

[Daniel Adams]

The AP was pretty quick with results last year. Their general NJ page is here, with the gubernatorial results by county here.

[DownWithTheLeft]

For anyone who cares (this would be Mr. Moderate) turnout is light in Passaic and we (and by we I mean the entire LD-36 campaign) firmly expect to pick up one, if not both seats. 

I stand by my Christie prediction, but sadly I will not be here to follow the returns as I will be at the official victory party.  I have a VIP pass and will be on TV so watch for me

[Eraserhead]

For anyone who cares (this would be Mr. Moderate) turnout is light in Passaic and we (and by we I mean the entire LD-36 campaign) firmly expect to pick up one, if not both seats. 

I stand by my Christie prediction, but sadly I will not be here to follow the returns as I will be at the official victory party.  I have a VIP pass and will be on TV so watch for me

That should be interesting. I have a feeling that it is going to be quite tense there for some time.

[DownWithTheLeft]

For anyone who cares (this would be Mr. Moderate) turnout is light in Passaic and we (and by we I mean the entire LD-36 campaign) firmly expect to pick up one, if not both seats. 

I stand by my Christie prediction, but sadly I will not be here to follow the returns as I will be at the official victory party.  I have a VIP pass and will be on TV so watch for me

That should be interesting. I have a feeling that it is going to be quite tense there for some time.

I know, I'm also going to be constantly on my phone with the LD-36 manager getting updates there, as well as the Bergen county freeholder race

[Eraserhead]

Corzine is surging on intrade.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Corzine is surging on intrade.

Why?  Democratic turnout is horrible, GOP is good

[Eraserhead]

Corzine is surging on intrade.

Why?  Democratic turnout is horrible, GOP is good

I guess because the exit poll is a tie and it showed that Obama is still very popular.

[Sam Spade]

If I bet on elections, it would be tempting to bet here with Corzine nearing 80.

Of course, betting on elections might show me to be a real loser.

[Eraserhead]

If I bet on elections, it would be tempting to bet here with Corzine nearing 80.

Agreed... he was actually only at 58 when I posted that.

[Sam Spade]

If I bet on elections, it would be tempting to bet here with Corzine nearing 80.

Agreed... he was actually only at 58 when I posted that.

Yep.  Rumor of exit poll tied - I don't see how that puts Corzine at 80 given the history of these things.

[Tender Branson]

NJ voters ranked the economy and jobs as their No. 1 issue, with 31% of voters telling pollsters that issue mattered most to them. The No. 2 issue was property taxes (26%), and corruption (20%) was No. 3. Polling has shown the focus on property taxes and corruption are stronger areas for ex-U.S. Atty Chris Christie (R) than for Gov. Jon Corzine (D). Health care was No. 4 with 18%.

http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2009/11/exit_polls_its.php

[Tender Branson]

In New Jersey, Republican Chris Christie took 58 percent of the independent vote, according to early CNN Exit Poll data. Incumbent Gov. Jon Corzine, a Democrat, took just 33 percent of the independent vote. Independents made up 27 percent of the voters in New Jersey race.

To the south, in Virginia, 62 percent of independents cast ballots for Republican Bob McDonnell in that state's gubernatorial contest. Democrat Creigh Deeds earned the votes of 37 percent of independents. Independents made up 29 percent of voters in that race.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2009/11/03/exit-polls-independents-may-play-crucial-role

That sucks. Corzine down 25 among Indies. Hopefully he can hold the Dem vote.

[Phony Moderate]

The Polls have closed. No votes in yet according to AP.

[Sam Spade]

We can wait.

[Mr. Morden]

Btw, Corzine had been up on Intrade, but now he's in a 50-50 tie with Christie.

[Phony Moderate]

Does anyone have a link to a county by county map of the returns? There was one for Virginia, but i can't find one for New Jersey.

[cinyc]

Does anyone have a link to a county by county map of the returns? There was one for Virginia, but i can't find one for New Jersey.

http://www.politico.com/election/2009/maps/#/NJ

[Eraserhead]

Those Indie numbers seem pretty awful. Ugh.