2009 New Jersey Governor's Race

[ChrisFromNJ]

It can't be good news that Lonegan is losing the most conservative county in the state, a fairly sizable county at that.

[Keystone Phil]

20% reporting


Chris Christie (R) 38,919             58%
Steven Lonegan (R) 27,174        40%
Rick Merkt (R) 1,555                      2%

[Rowan]

20% in, 58-40.

I'm hearing only one precint in from Christies home county Morris.

[Verily]

Christie improves for the first time when a new batch of votes comes in, now 58-40 with 20% in. It's probably over.

Anyway, yes Ocean is very Republican, but it's not necessarily that conservative in the sense of voting for candidates like Lonegan. Whatever, not important.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

So, New Jerseyites, why is the GOP incumbent in the 23rd AD currently losing his primary?

[Rowan]

21% in, 57-40.

[Keystone Phil]

22% reporting


Chris Christie (R) 42,292              57%
Steven Lonegan (R) 30,606         41%
Rick Merkt (R) 1,816                       2%

[Zarn]

24%:

Christie 45,757 56%
Lonegan 33,416 41%
Merkt 1,913 2%

Edit: Corzine at 79%

Just to keep track of him, and see what % of Dems he can carry among diehards.

[Rowan]

Total Reporting:26%

     Name    Votes    Pct.
   Chris Christie (R)   48,335   56%
   Steven Lonegan (R)   35,480   41%
   Rick Merkt (R)   2,023   2%

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Morris doesn't have a line, the county is filled with precisely the "mountain man" conservative voters that willl actually get excited about Lonegan, and Christie hasn't held office there in over a decade, so I wouldn't get too excited about his chances there.

[Rowan]

NJN finally had the sense to put the results on the screen.

[Dan the Roman]

So, New Jerseyites, why is the GOP incumbent in the 23rd AD currently losing his primary?

Same thing happening in the 23rd Senate District. Marcia Karrow, a moderate Assemblywoman was picked over Doherty to succeed Leonard Lance in the Senate. In turn, Dimao was picked for her assembly seat. Both are losing their primaries right now. Mr. Moderate can correct me, but I would guess at least the senate seat is a potential Democratic pickup if Karrow loses.

[Keystone Phil]

NJN finally had the sense to put the results on the screen.

...and then take them down.

[Verily]

Christie Whitman's daughter lost her town council race in Peapack and Gladstone.

And now, back to your regularly scheduled programming.

[Holmes]

Why does Christie release an attack ad with some woman jogging?

I mean, Romney had the right idea with by actually doing the running, but...

[Verily]

So, New Jerseyites, why is the GOP incumbent in the 23rd AD currently losing his primary?

Same thing happening in the 23rd Senate District. Marcia Karrow, a moderate Assemblywoman was picked over Doherty to succeed Leonard Lance in the Senate. In turn, Dimao was picked for her assembly seat. Both are losing their primaries right now. Mr. Moderate can correct me, but I would guess at least the senate seat is a potential Democratic pickup if Karrow loses.

Third place for DiMaio, too, right now. Ouch.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Here are county-level results:

http://elections.nj.com/dynamic/files/elections/2009/by_county/NJ_Page_0602.html?SITE=NJNEWELN&SECTION=POLITICS

[Rowan]

Total Reporting:31%
     Name    Votes    Pct.
   Chris Christie (R)   56,186   56%
   Steven Lonegan (R)   41,087   41%
   Rick Merkt (R)   2,237   2%

[Verily]

Here are county-level results:

http://elections.nj.com/dynamic/files/elections/2009/by_county/NJ_Page_0602.html?SITE=NJNEWELN&SECTION=POLITICS

Kind of shows how misleading the precinct percentages are for primaries. Hudson has significantly more precincts than Ocean and around a tenth of the votes in the GOP primary.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

So, New Jerseyites, why is the GOP incumbent in the 23rd AD currently losing his primary?

Same thing happening in the 23rd Senate District. Marcia Karrow, a moderate Assemblywoman was picked over Doherty to succeed Leonard Lance in the Senate. In turn, Dimao was picked for her assembly seat. Both are losing their primaries right now. Mr. Moderate can correct me, but I would guess at least the senate seat is a potential Democratic pickup if Karrow loses.

Well, first, only Doherty and Karrow are "incumbents." There was a bit of a shuffle when Len Lance moved up to congress, and Karrow was named State Senator. The local GOP then named a new Assemblyman.  No one really knows any of those people for the offices they're running for.

And Democrats have no shot in hell of winning 23 under virtually any circumstances.  It's about the most solidly Republican in the state.

(It's also worth noting that LD23 is Warren and Hunterdon, and the different organizations are backing different candidates.  So you could just be seeing lopsided results.)

[Verily]

A big chunk of Passaic came in. Christie is leading 51-48 there. I think that basically seals the deal. Lonegan needs 55% or so in Passaic to make this close. 56-42 now.

[Rowan]

Total Reporting:36%
     Name    Votes    Pct.
   Chris Christie (R)   68,263   56%
   Steven Lonegan (R)   50,345   41%
   Rick Merkt (R)   2,886   2%

[JohnnyLongtorso]

So, New Jerseyites, why is the GOP incumbent in the 23rd AD currently losing his primary?

Same thing happening in the 23rd Senate District. Marcia Karrow, a moderate Assemblywoman was picked over Doherty to succeed Leonard Lance in the Senate. In turn, Dimao was picked for her assembly seat. Both are losing their primaries right now. Mr. Moderate can correct me, but I would guess at least the senate seat is a potential Democratic pickup if Karrow loses.

Well, first, only Doherty and Karrow are "incumbents." There was a bit of a shuffle when Len Lance moved up to congress, and Karrow was named State Senator. The local GOP then named a new Assemblyman.  No one really knows any of those people for the offices they're running for.

And Democrats have no shot in hell of winning 23 under virtually any circumstances.  It's about the most solidly Republican in the state.

(It's also worth noting that LD23 is Warren and Hunterdon, and the different organizations are backing different candidates.  So you could just be seeing lopsided results.)

Who is backing whom? Nothing from Warren is in yet, but most of the Hunterdon part is.

[Rowan]

NJN has the worst coverage ever.

[Verily]

Total Reporting:36%
     Name    Votes    Pct.
   Chris Christie (R)   68,263   56%
   Steven Lonegan (R)   50,345   41%
   Rick Merkt (R)   2,886   2%

New votes are from Cape May, unsurprisingly strong for Christie. Lonegan has pulled Atlantic into a tie, now, though.

Lonegan should win big in Sussex, Warren and Bergen, and possibly also in Christie's home county of Morris. Only one precinct in Morris is in, and nothing from the other three. But that will not, at this point, be enough to make up Lonegan's deficit. He needs stronger numbers in the remainder of Atlantic and Passaic and needs not to get clobbered in Middlesex.