2009 New Jersey Governor's Race

[Rowan]

Rasmussen
Christie: 46%
Corzine: 39%

Jonmentum!

With leaners its 53-41.

[Nutmeg]

Rasmussen
Christie: 46%
Corzine: 39%

Jonmentum!

With leaners its 53-41.

That's telling.  Interesting.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Christie leads by 7 without leaners and 12 with?  That means about a 3 point victory.

Folks its almost all but over right now

[DownWithTheLeft]

Wow the internals are amazing for Chrisite

40% of people say they could change by their mind, but of those who have decided, Christie leads by 16 points.  If those who could change their mind, 60% disapprove of Corzine's job as governor, while 38% strongly disapprove.

Screw my last assesment, Christie by 8+

[Holmes]

Internals, eh?

Maybe Palin can campaign for Christie too, she has all that free time now.

[Keystone Phil]

Internals, eh?

That wasn't meant to mean internals as in "internal polling by the campaign."

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Apparently, Michael Steele said she would be brought in to campaign on  behalf of the national GOP. Corzine jumped on it, sending out a press release asking if Christie would have her come in. Christie said he wouldn't.

[Ronnie]

I'm just excited as to how the county map will look like.

If Christie wins, does he actually have a chance at winning Middlesex and Passaic counties?  Also, I'm assuming that he will win all of the southern NJ counties except Camden.

[Rowan]

I'm just excited as to how the county map will look like.

If Christie wins, does he actually have a chance at winning Middlesex and Passaic counties?  Also, I'm assuming that he will win all of the southern NJ counties except Camden.

If Christie wins, in South Jersey he will most likely win Cape May, Atlantic, Salem, and Burlington. I think Corzine will probably carry Cumberland and Camden.

[Ronnie]

I'm just excited as to how the county map will look like.

If Christie wins, does he actually have a chance at winning Middlesex and Passaic counties?  Also, I'm assuming that he will win all of the southern NJ counties except Camden.

If Christie wins, in South Jersey he will most likely win Cape May, Atlantic, Salem, and Burlington. I think Corzine will probably carry Cumberland and Camden.

Cumberland is a tossup.  Both Kerry and Obama barely outperformed their statewide numbers in the county.

As for Northern New Jersey, Christie should carry Bergen county comfortably, but the question is if he will carry Middlesex and Passaic counties.

[East Coast Republican]

SOMETHING interesting hasn't been noted here YET.

It's also absent from the partisan people over at blue jersey and daily kos.

Corzine has not broken out of the 30s or past 40%-not once.  Over the past months he has not got out of that range.  Now, Christie has never gone below 45%.

Interesting, right?  I think that's good for Christie but I'm still extremely (hmmm what's a good word..)-unsettled-about this race. 

[DownWithTheLeft]

I am, though not many are , very interested to see how this race affects downballot races.  Bergen County still has an all Democratic freeholder board, Republicans need seats there.  If he runs well in Bergen, the GOP also has a great chance of carrying the ultra competitive 36 district

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

A couple state legislative notes: A Republican candidate for Assembly is being abandoned by the party wholesale after it was revealed he used the ephithet "n*gger;" a Democratic incumbent is trying to avoid being bounced from the ballot (and legislature) on the basis that she is actually a resident of Orlando, Florida.

[Rowan]

He said "If you want to be a n*gger go back to Paulsboro" to his apparently black neighbors. What a genius.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Are these particularly competitive districts?

[Verily]

I'm just excited as to how the county map will look like.

If Christie wins, does he actually have a chance at winning Middlesex and Passaic counties?  Also, I'm assuming that he will win all of the southern NJ counties except Camden.

If Christie wins, in South Jersey he will most likely win Cape May, Atlantic, Salem, and Burlington. I think Corzine will probably carry Cumberland and Camden.

Cumberland is a tossup.  Both Kerry and Obama barely outperformed their statewide numbers in the county.

As for Northern New Jersey, Christie should carry Bergen county comfortably, but the question is if he will carry Middlesex and Passaic counties.

This analysis is kind of cute.

Anyway, there's no way Christie wins Passaic County. It's an extremely polarized county with little room for swing either way; Christie may rack up the margins in the suburban and exurban parts, but Wayne can't outvote Paterson no matter how much it tries. Atlantic is similar, but it's at least possible for the suburbs/exurbs to outvote Atlantic City and Pleasantville.

Cumberland's a weird one, and I'm not as familiar with voting patterns in South Jersey. But Cumberland is the sort of county that I would expect to vote Democratic unwaveringly in trying economic times, and the growing Hispanic and black populations certainly don't make it any more Republican-favorable.

As for Bergen, Christie will probably win it--although winning Bergen is less necessary to a statewide GOP victory than it used to be. It will be close either way.

Middlesex is weird, and it really all depends on who the South Asians vote for. Of note is that the South Asians are actually pretty suspicious of people who claim to want to clean up government (not surprising given what goes on in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh). The votes of most of the rest of the county are pretty much set in stone.

Christie's path to victory is about low turnout in the urban counties (not too hard when enthusiasm for Corzine is pretty low) and racking up the percentages along the Shore and in the exurban and outer suburban areas. That doesn't require many county flips from the 2008 result. (Obviously he's screwed if he loses Somerset or Salem, though, not that I would expect him to. Well, maybe he'd lose Salem and still win; it's a weird and small county that doesn't follow traditional patterns.)

[Tender Branson]

Quinnipiac to be out with a new NJ poll today ...

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Are these particularly competitive districts?

The district with the Orlando-residing D is in urban north Jersey.

District 3, the district with the n-word loving Republican (who is actually relishing his new found media attention and seems quite unapologetic about it) was supposed to be a top GOP target this year, but the Lonegan-supporting ultracon beat out the mainstream GOPer in the primary. Republicans have since decided they'd rather not spend their limited funds there.

Whether or not District 3 would have been competitive... well, that's debatable.  It's one of those "maybe we can win it because Corzine's ridiculously unpopular there" districts.

[Rowan]

    GOVERNOR - NEW JERSEY (Quinnipiac)
    Chris Christie (R) 53%
    Jon Corzine (D-inc) 41%

    Chris Christie (R) 47%
    Jon Corzine (D) 38%
    Christopher Daggett (I) 8%

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1299.xml?ReleaseID=1348

[DownWithTheLeft]

In all honesty its pretty much over

[Keystone Phil]

In all honesty its pretty much over

Wow. No.

[Zarn]

In all honesty its pretty much over

Wow. No.

Yeah, it is. This is a 'reset' year.

[Meeker]

Now this folks... this is embarrassing:

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(Political Wire)

[Nutmeg]

Now this folks... this is embarrassing:

Does Corzine even want to win?  If true, this would be a Sanfordesque move - an implication that he doesn't want to have a future in politics.  This new lieutenant governorship in NJ should have been an opportunity for each gubernatorial candidate.  Only in NJ could it have been so badly squandered.

[Keystone Phil]

In all honesty its pretty much over

Wow. No.

Yeah, it is. This is a 'reset' year.

Please prove me wrong. Please. I'm begging you. 

[DownWithTheLeft]

In all honesty its pretty much over

Wow. No.

There is nothing really that is an anonmally about this poll.  Republicans usually about at worst 10 points than they poll now.  But that has to do with undecideds breaking heavily.  Right now Christie is above 50% consistently meaning he does not need to worry about late breakers