2009 New Jersey Governor's Race

[Verily]

I'm being totally honest here when I say that Daggett won the debate, which means that Corzine won the debate.  No B.S. or partisan hackery from me right now.  How can Corzine lose when the Independent candiate is complimenting you every time he talks and belittling Christie?   How can Christie win when he's asked the same question 3 times, but can't give an answer that isn't vague? 

Dunno if anyone can win a debate that no one watches.

In such a case, the winner is whoever the media says was the winner. Debates always affect public opinion, just not necessarily directly.

This doesn't tell me or you anything about who the media has anointed, of course, although the one article I have found corroborates Dem4Life: http://blog.nj.com/njv_paul_mulshine/2009/10/mulshine_on_first_debate.html

NYTimes agrees that Daggett won by a mile:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/02/nyregion/02debate.html?_r=1&hp

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

This doesn't tell me or you anything about who the media has anointed, of course, although the one article I have found corroborates Dem4Life: http://blog.nj.com/njv_paul_mulshine/2009/10/mulshine_on_first_debate.html

NYTimes agrees that Daggett won by a mile:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/02/nyregion/02debate.html?_r=1&hp

Mulshine has been shitting all over Christie for the last few months now.  I knew exactly what he'd have to say about the debate before the debate even happened.

Good for Daggett, though. Maybe this appearance will get him up to 8%.

[Tender Branson]

Good to see that Christie didn't win this debate.

Anyway, new poll by R2000:

Christie: 46
Corzine: 42
Daggett: 7

http://twitter.com/markos/status/4534330666

[Meeker]

I'm telling you guys, my trip up there gave Corzine a BIG bump. Just a few more weeks of work by the volunteer leaders with the Yes We Can 2.0 Campaign Effort and this race will be OVER.

[Eraserhead]

Daggettmania is about to EXPLODE.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

PoliticsNJ had a good piece on Daggett the other day regarding his ballot positioning. It got buried pretty quick amongst news of the debate and Sheila Oliver.

http://www.politickernj.com/matt-friedman/33666/most-ballots-daggetts-name-will-be-hard-find

In Bergen and Gloucester, Daggett has the best possible (3rd) ballot position.  Bergen is the state's most populous county and is minimally more Republican than the statewide average; Gloucester is small and slightly more Democratic than the statewide average.

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Ocean is one of the state's most Republican counties; Atlantic is more competitive but notably more Republican than the state on a whole.

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Hunterdon and Warren are smaller counties, but intensely Republican ones.  Corzine will struggle to get 30% in them.

The simple analysis is that Daggett pulls from Christie in Republican areas; from Corzine in Democratic ones.  I'm not sure how true that is, but the fact that Daggett is buried in places like Hunterdon, Warren, and Ocean Counties can't be too bad of a happenstance for Christie.

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[YankeeFan007]

I've considered it last night and I've decided to vote for Daggett instead of Corzine.  I think Corzine is out of touch with what New Jerseyan's want and need.  Christie, although he may be a great attorney, was weak.  He didn't look physically weak, but the information  he provided the voter with was vague and full of hot air.  He was unable to say how much he would reduce taxes for the state, he was unable to name many items he would cut in the state budget, and he was unable to stop himself from going down to Corzine's child-like level.   He basically said all the things that a dumb Republican who doesn't look at all the facts or specifics would want to hear.   He gained nothing last night.   In fact I think both major party canidates lost voters and Daggett will soon start polling from 13-17 percent.   

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I've considered it last night and I've decided to vote for Daggett instead of Corzine.  I think Corzine is out of touch with what New Jerseyan's want and need.  Christie, although he may be a great attorney, was weak.  He didn't look physically weak, but the information  he provided the voter with was vague and full of hot air.  He was unable to say how much he would reduce taxes for the state, he was unable to name many items he would cut in the state budget, and he was unable to stop himself from going down to Corzine's child-like level.   He basically said all the things that a dumb Republican who doesn't look at all the facts or specifics would want to hear.   He gained nothing last night.

It's pretty obvious why Christie is being vague.  And it's not that he doesn't have answers.  Corzine, Christie, and Daggett all know what has to be done to fix that hole.

If you're talking about cutting 8 billion dollars, there's no painless way to do that.  No matter what you do, it's going to piss someone off and be unpopular.  Christie did about all he can: point out the less offensive cuts he'd make, and be vague about the rest.  Daggett called him on it, of course, because he's got nothing to lose (and because it plays to his image).

New Jersey has a balanced budget requirement, and the state is just about out of the short-term budget fixes loved by the past Democratic administrations.  The next Governor is going to have to, probably, do what Daggett is suggesting and raise taxes (specifically, expand the sales tax to professional services).  Christie has done a remarkable job at holding together conservatives, a group all to eager to balk the second a Republican candidate shows weakness or a moderate approach.  He can't risk losing them by explaining what needs to be done.

Christie will probably cut state workers, too, but he'd get slaughtered in Hamilton if he says so.  Given how quick Corzine is to put everything and anything into an attack ad, is it really surprising that Christie is avoiding giving specifics?

In fact I think both major party canidates lost voters and Daggett will soon start polling from 13-17 percent.

Again, you forget that no one actually saw the debate.  Regardless, polling will not and cannot match up with the final numbers so far as Daggett is concerned.  With all due respect to Brigid Harrison, ballot positioning costs him a lot more than 1%.

[Tender Branson]

Let´s try to break this down:

The NJ Voter Registration is as followed:

46% IND
34% DEM
20% REP

The 2008, 2006 and 2004 Exit Polls:

44% DEM, 28% IND, 28% REP
41% DEM, 31% IND, 28% REP
39% DEM, 30% IND, 31% REP

Let's say 2009 is a mix of 2004 and 2006:

40% DEM
30% REP
30% IND

In the last 3 polls, Corzine leads 75-10-7 among Democrats. Lets say he ends up winning them 80-10-10.

Christie leads among GOP'ers 85-6-6. Also including a slight Dagget surge until the election like among Democrats, Christie ends up winning GOP'ers by 85-8(D)-7(C).

Among Independents, Christie currently leads 49-31-13. Let`s assume Christie wins them 50-32-18.

Now, assuming the 40-30-30 breakdown on election day, the final result is:

Christie: 44.5%
Corzine: 43.7%
Daggett: 11.8%

Should be pretty interesting ...

[Tender Branson]

It seems Dagett is cutting heavily into Christie's lead among Independents in the closing days of the campaign. Sould this pattern hold and Corzine can hold Christie to only a 15% deficit among Independents on election day, getting 80% of Democrats and a turnout similar to 2006 or 2008, then Christie is toast. I think Corzine down 15% among Independents will be make or break for him on election day. But it's not out of question, because Christie once led 2:1 among Independents.

[Verily]

Atlantic is more competitive but notably more Republican than the state on a whole.

LOL. Atlantic was within 0.5% of the statewide vote in 2008, 2005 and 2004.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Atlantic is more competitive but notably more Republican than the state on a whole.

LOL. Atlantic was within 0.5% of the statewide vote in 2008, 2005 and 2004.

Raw PVI is not the only measure of whether or not Atlantic is more Republican than New Jersey itself.  The fact that Republicans can and do actually win county-wide office there matters.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Wow, what a painful debate.  SHU CRs had a debate watching party, so I kind of was compelled to be there but it was bad.  Corzine showed he has no idea what he is doing and is just a power hungry maniac out of touch with society.  Daggett showed he is clueless, and Christie just seemed to be angry he was taken away from his local fast food joint.

If anyone won it was Daggett, but Corzine's out of touch reality statements made him the clear loser

[Rowan]

Atlantic is more competitive but notably more Republican than the state on a whole.

LOL. Atlantic was within 0.5% of the statewide vote in 2008, 2005 and 2004.

I live in Atlantic. I was just going to say that. If you want to see how much Christie(or Corzine for that matter) will win by, just look at the returns from Atlantic.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

This is interesting: Talk continues about the GOP playing kingmaker in the contest for Senate President.  Steve Sweeney supposedly has 14 Dem votes for Senate President, which should make him the next President, but Minority Leader Tom Kean Jr. has not ruled out fiddling with the contest.

Problem is, supposedly Sweeney has the backing of 7 GOP State Senators as well, giving him the 21 of 40 needed to absolutely lock out Codey. PoliticsNJ suggests that Christie winning the Governorship could give him the power to have his pick, Sweeney or Codey, but that the smart money would be on exiling the only popular Democrat in the state to political oblivion, just in case.

[Rowan]

Apparently Democracy Corps is going to be showing Corzine in the lead tomorrow. Let me guess, they have Daggett at at least 15%.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Apparently Democracy Corps is going to be showing Corzine in the lead tomorrow. Let me guess, they have Daggett at at least 15%.

Pfft Democracy Corp.

[Eraserhead]

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2009/10/05/corzine_has_momentum.html

[Holmes]

That's impossible because I've been telling myself all year that Christie will win by 30 points.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Corzine has no momentum.  He is not budging in polling, either head-to-head or based on approvals.  Miserable high thirties to low forties.

The only movement is from Christie to Daggett, and as you may already know, you should gravely question how much of that ten point poll number is real.

[Eraserhead]

Not budging? That's going a bit far. He has moved up slowly.

[Rowan]

It’s an FDU. They only have Daggett at 4%. SOMEONE is messing up this polling HORRIBLY. Quinnipiac has Daggett at 12%. 4% is probably more accurate, but Corzine at 44% sure as hell isn't.

http://blog.savejersey.com/2009/10/05/alert-corzine-takes-44-to-43-lead-over-christie.as

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

FDU is a pretty lousy pollster, but it's more respectable than Democracy Corps, anyway.

And 4% for Daggett is probably a lot closer to reality than 13% or whatever.

[Lief 🗽]

Excellent, the tide has turned, good may just triumph over evil.

[Sewer]

Excellent, the tide has turned, good may just triumph over evil.

Daggett will win?